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sam

I Was Way Out With My Prediction

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1. I am now 2 years out in my prediction for when the Downturn(not bottom of cycle) would begin

2. I am now 50/50 for a property crash in the next 5 years(odds more in favour for a crash after that)

3. I now think monthly rises are here to saty for the next few months.

Is there anyone else that was way out with their prediction as to when the collapse would be begin.

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Guest Alright Jack

We are already in a recession. Most are feeling it, especially those that don't hold real estate or other tangible assets. see weimar germany.

Major economic downturns don't suddenly happen when some economist rings a bell. They are major societal events that unfold over many years. The rising prices create an illusion of prosperity and direct investment and labour towards those industries that are hyperinflating first, thus further perpetuating the ever deeper missallocation of capital and attention. (Think of all those estate agents, bankers and financiers and 'life style gurus' lording their hyperinflated opinions over a VERY deluded population on television and radio... they could be working in real wealth creating industries, agriculture, clothing, electronics...etc)

Eventually consumer prices will catch up with everything else and this will later be known to called the 'bottom' of the depression. Investors will then realise how much money can be made actually making 'things' again and the recovery will begin.

This is my theory.

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We are already in a recession. Most are feeling it, especially those that don't hold real estate or other tangible assets. see weimar germany.

This is my theory.

No, we are not in a recession, it's June 2006 by the way.

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Guest Alright Jack

a pretty good one for a troll ;):)

I decided to get an education. Now I've gone from talking rubbish to at least talking more sense than IDIOTS like unRealist Bear. Guys like him/her are so deluded it is just unbelievable. It's as if the world revolves around them and is supposed to do exactly what they expect and make them rich. I just can't catch my breath sometimes.

House prices will crash because... er... I want them to! Basically.

No, we are not in a recession, it's June 2006 by the way.

It depends if you believe the ****** stats thrown out by the government or not. I for one DO NOT.

Just think for a moment how they calculate GDP. They come up with a big number based on total value of goods and services raised over and above the previous year, then, and this is crucial, they back out the official inflation rate.

Given the CPI is a fraud and is probably understated by (last check the PPI and M4 were around 15% and 12% respectively)

So, back out the error (- 10 %+) to get a more accurate GDP growth rate and you have a drastic negative number (recession)

THAT IS WHY WE ARE STAGFLATING... THE MONEYCREDIT IS JUST BEING SOLD ON DOWN THE BANKING RETAIL CHAIN to hyperinflate the mortgage / consumption credit bubble.

Staglation continues until people wake up. Then money velocity increases and precipitates the collapse of the currency. i.e hyperinflation.

I CHALLENGE ANY BEAR ON THIS FORUM TO GIVE ME AN ALTERNATIVE TO THIS.

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  • 302 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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