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The Proof Is In The Pudding


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For all that is written on this site regarding affordabilty and the general talking down of the market the proof is in the pudding.

Check out the Council of Mortgage Lenders website.

It clearly shows that in 2004 we had a huge kickstart of property transactions over and above by far 2003.

The ebb of 2003 just like today was subdued with the talk about a crash and affordability.

Just look at the deposits put down by FTB's around 20%.

And just look at the average earning ratios at a tadd over 3%.

Affordability is at an all time high due to cheap interest rates. This last quarter has a mild reduction in advances the difference is around 10,000 less transactions at 90,000 transactions per month as opposed to 114,000 for 2003.

Yet hardly suprising as you look at the figures as a whole for 2004 and there were more advances than in 2003 the difference is that they took part in the first three qaurters of the year.

So in a nutshell wait and see, 2005 may well kick off with a rise in advances as Christmas Blues pass and people start to look to move up yet again.

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Check out the Council of Mortgage Lenders website.

It clearly shows that in 2004 we had a huge kickstart of property transactions over and above by far 2003.

Got a link?

Just look at the deposits put down by FTB's around 20%.

Got a link?

just look at the average earning ratios at a tadd over 3%.

Got a link?

Affordability is at an all time high due to cheap interest rates

********.

This last quarter has a mild reduction in advances the difference is around 10,000 less transactions at 90,000 transactions per month as opposed to 114,000 for 2003.

Got a link?

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From Jan to Oct 2003 1024 (000's)

From Jan to Oct 2004 1077 (000's)

Since 2000 we have heard umpteen scaremonger reports telling people to bail out.

I know of many people who did just that and Sold to Rent.

They are now stuck with a pitifull amount of cash for a deposit and should they attempt to get back in today would be tens of thousands out of pocket.

Its going to have to go down a hell of a long way for anyone that sold to rent before 2002 to be up on the deal.

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Laurejon, there was not a "HUGE" kickstart in property transactions; the 2004 numbers are virtually identical to the 2002 numbers.

The median deposits put down by FTBs is 13% , NOT 20%.

The MEDIAN house price-to-earnings ratio is 3%. There are as many above this, as below.

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You are correct they did put down 13%.

Thats a fair sized deposit these days.

That said the figures dont paint a picture of doom and gloom in my eyes.

2000 onwards saw a massive rise in property transactions that were unsustainable. It was obvious it could not continue rising 30% per annum as is the case in some parts of the country.

I would interpret from those figures that we are moving into a period of stability. Next year when you put an offer in it will be below the asking price as opposed to above the asking price as was the case this year.

Everything I offered on this year required an offer over the asking price. My local rag still has prices detailed as "In the Region of" or "Offers in Excess of".

I really cannot see any massive correction in prices this spring, nor rises.

Anything that is realistic in its pricing will sell and as for the mass exodus from the market I think that is wishfull thinking. To most people their home is just that a home and they would rather die than sell up and live in rented properties handing over vast wedges of cash to the landlord each month.

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the figures dont paint a picture of doom and gloom in my eyes.

In your opinion.

I would interpret from those figures that we are moving into a period of stability

In your opinion.

I really cannot see any massive correction in prices this spring, nor rises.

In your opinion(gee, are you noticing a pattern here?)

as for the mass exodus from the market I think that is wishfull thinking

Let's see, shall we.

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Its a great shame you have such tunneled vision in all things housey.

Your should open your mind and become more objective with your thoughts.

There are two sided to every argument take on board all sides both the extreme and the opposites and you will find a happy medium to make a judgement.

I am giving my thoughts take them as you feel fit.

If they dont fit in with your plans for the future then fine and likewise for me.

I wouldnt buy a property today sure, but I dont have to I bought mine in 2000. However that doesnt mean that everyone should not buy a house because I wont.

The one great thing about life is the mistakes we make and the more we make the more we learn.

In this life if you dont try you will never know.

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Its a great shame you have such tunneled vision in all things housey.

Your should open your mind and become more objective with your thoughts.

Don't even f*cking THINK of telling me what I should or should not do.

I wouldnt buy a property today sure, but I dont have to I bought mine in 2000. However that doesnt mean that everyone should not buy a house because I wont.

What the f*ck are you talking about? Are you sure youaren't Iranian as well? Your use of the English language is verging on the unintelligible.

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Laurejon,

The eating, Laurejon. The proof of the pudding is in the eating, The proof is not in the pudding. To say "The proof is in the pudding" is completely meaningless. Proof of What? and what's it doing in a pudding?

The title of your post is therefore quite apt, as the proof you present is not proof at all in fact it's mostly a figment of your imagination.

It clearly shows that in 2004 we had a huge kickstart of property transactions over and above by far 2003.

No it doesn't it shows transactions level with last year and falling, so unless there is a Christmas rush, it's a dead cert that 2004 will not be as good as 2003.

The ebb of 2003 just like today was subdued with the talk about a crash and affordability.

But the ebb of 2003 was in December, as one would expect. The ebb of 2004 was in October (which was a very strong month in 2003 and 2002) this suggests that we have not yet seen the real ebb.

Just look at the deposits put down by FTB's around 20%.

Actually around 14% at most, but surely you don't see this as a positive, do you? this is caused by lending restrictions people are being forced to find alternative funding in order to buy.

Affordability is at an all time high due to cheap interest rates. This last quarter has a mild reduction in advances the difference is around 10,000 less transactions at 90,000 transactions per month as opposed to 114,000 for 2003.

Awesome maths there laurejon 114 - 90 = about 10

0nly about 140% out

And just look at the average earning ratios at a tadd over 3%.

Earnings to loan ratio of 3.06:1 (not a percentage btw). Remember that this is based on total income declared on the mortgage application, so in many cases will be two peoples income. It's historically unprecedented. The average since 1974 is around 2.2 so we're 40% above the average. Pretty much what we all knew already and hardly reason for optimism.

So in a nutshell wait and see, 2005 may well kick off with a rise in advances as Christmas Blues pass and people start to look to move up yet again.

Lets see what happens for the rest of 2004. I think we may be starting from a very low benchmark by the end iof the year so you may be right.

Japhy

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Who is this 'laurejon' bumpkin? And what does he have in his head instead of a brain?

And fer krissakes wassapoint in posting this bullish twaddle on a 'crash' forum? His 'pleadings' for everyone to just keep on buying sounds *very* like the desperate bleatings of the previous BTL crowd as their 'portfolios' (i.e. tenements) slipped into negative equity. Next stop - the Banks start to call in the loans...

Coincidentally, as I write this, Capital radio news is announcing that prices in over half of London's boroughs are 'lower than this time last year'.

Now then, I *wonder which way its going the next few years* ... doh.

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  • 439 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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