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The Trouble With David Smith In The Times.

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his real problem in understanding and evaluating the economic situation, is not his abilities in understanding how economies might or might not work. but he rather foolishly believes the statistics that he gets from the govenment.

how anyone can believe anything that this govenment says or produces is a mystery to me. but then people believe in astrology,and that england will win the world cup. so there is no accounting for it.

however, it does mean that one must not take it too seriously. do you read your star sign and actually believe it, well view mr smith inthe same light.

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Hes already got egg on his face, he was constantly banging on about further interest rate cuts and got it completely wrong. If he can't see the relationship between rising IR and a property crash then hes even more useless than I thought - complete an utter muppet.

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The guy has been more successful at forecasting the market than Oswald, Bootle et al - maybe he deserves a bit of credit for that.

But I have never properly heard him address the low wage inflation issue i.e. have buyers confused a drop in nominal rates for a drop in real rates.

I read a comment by him on his website to the effect that "Buyers accept that their mortgages will last longer than before" (paraphrased). I'm not sure the market cares about people "accepting" things. Surely this is THE difference between the time of 3.5 x earnings and now. How can their not be a very significant lessening of demand at some future point due to low debt erosion (compared to our higher inflation past) ? Will it not be equal and opposite to the boost in demand resulting from the removal of the nominal cap ?

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Remember he is a serious political animal.

His bosses are News INternational and Rupert et al has seriously cosied up to Tone and Gord.

No doubt when the government loses its cosy relationship Mr Smith will change his tune.

His is a good read but also VI B0llocks much of the time.



Edited by Financial Planner

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  • 301 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?

      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%

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