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Hometrack, June's House Price Survey

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Looks like London is the main driver behind the HPI this year. Regions seem to be struggling a bit.

"The continued growth in prices and rising sales levels suggest continued buyer confidence over the prospects for the market" comments Donnell. "However, with high house prices and stretched affordability levels buyer confidence is fragile. Unemployment levels have been quietly creeping up, and the prospects for the rest of the year hinge on market sentiment which is primarily driven by expectations for interest rates. Whilst there is clear momentum in the market we believe that a modest cooling in the rate of growth is likely over the second half of the year," he concludes.

Will we start seeing fears of IR hikes fade a bit? I would be very surprised if HPI continued to be so strong for the remainder of the year.

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****

The majority of the UK are happy little bunnys this morning, or they will be when they see this. The fact is we are a minority on HPC, this property bubble is going to be destructive in the long run, but for now it is keeping NuLabor in power.

Well done Tony Blair, you have created a new class system, us non owning property class are now the new *******.

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Guest wrongmove

Can someone remind me - what do Hometrack base their figures on?

They lick their finger and then they stick it out the window ? :P

Actually, I think they ask around a few EAs. Hometrack is the least reliable of all the indices IMHO.

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They lick their finger and then they stick it out the window ? :P

Actually, I think they ask around a few EAs. Hometrack is the least reliable of all the indices IMHO.

Thanks - that's what I thought

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Personally I think it’s the best – no adjustments – just real figures

You can not argue – there is no crash yet- just massive house price inflation

Don’t put your heads in the sand – you can not dismiss every report – they all are telling you that house prices are going up – not down

There will be no crash until you find a trigger – or house prices actually go down for a while

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Well the news just gets worse by the day, its beyond a joke now. Against all odds and sense, the housing market just goes up and up whilst the BoE sit back and watch.

Edited by simon99

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Personally I think it’s the best – no adjustments – just real figures

You can not argue – there is no crash yet- just massive house price inflation

Don’t put your heads in the sand – you can not dismiss every report – they all are telling you that house prices are going up – not down

There will be no crash until you find a trigger – or house prices actually go down for a while

The land reg stats are the only ones to go by

Just because people put their asking prices up does not mean prices are rising. They only rise if people pay the higher prices.

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Guest Alright Jack

give it up guys.

democracy is basically mob rule.

the mob are homeowners and therefore will prevail one way or another over the minority.

HPC IS NOT HAPPENING IN CASH TERMS.

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They lick their finger and then they stick it out the window ? :P

Actually, I think they ask around a few EAs. Hometrack is the least reliable of all the indices IMHO.

Most of the VI "surveys" tend to support their cause of more HPI and MEW in line with Gordon's "Miracle Economy."

I like the ODPM's figures best as they are based on actual sales. They lag a bit but do reflect what has happened in the market place. For a nice dose of refreshing good news (The bulls and trolls hate it when I post this!):

Land Registry statistics for the Q ending March 2006.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/shared/spl/hi/in_d...tml/region1.stm

Northumberland £149,225 -8.8%

Cumbria £143,851 -1.6%

Tyne And Wear £132,526 -0.3%

Stockton-On-Tees £128,643 -5.0%

Darlington £125,556 -5.6%

Durham £114,329 -4.3%

Redcar And Cleveland £109,289 -11.2%

Middlesbrough £108,982 4.7%

Hartlepool £98,770 -5.2%

East Riding Of Yorkshire £154,431 -4.5%

West Yorkshire £138,242 -1.1%

South Yorkshire £126,326 -1.4%

North Lincolnshire £122,869 -2.7%

North East Lincolnshire £102,179 -1.9%

Rutland £228,672 -7.7%

Leicestershire £170,145 -3.5%

Northamptonshire £158,537 -3.5%

Lincolnshire £147,659 -1.9%

Derbyshire £147,537 -3.5%

Nottinghamshire £146,871 -2.0%

City Of Derby £137,082 -0.3%

Leicester £134,130 0.3%

City Of Nottingham £119,797 -5.2%

Worcestershire £184,936 -3.3%

Warwickshire £184,860 -3.4%

Shropshire £184,664 -3.1%

Staffordshire £161,232 -0.1%

West Midlands £146,903 0.3%

Wrekin £140,819 1.2%

Stoke-On-Trent £89,910 -5.6%

Cheshire £185,036 -1.6%

Warrington £156,929 -4.5%

Greater Manchester £134,935 -2.1%

Merseyside £132,854 0.3%

Lancashire £128,806 -1.9%

Halton £127,289 -5.3%

Blackpool £119,112 2.8%

Blackburn With Darwen £98,762 -2.1%

Moray 101,031 -6.1%

Clackmannanshire 100,282 -6.8%

North Ayrshire 98,127 -1.9%

North Lanarkshire 96,363 1.7%

East Ayrshire 92,883 -10.3%

Orkney Islands 88,463 -10.3%

West Dunbartonshire 88,299 -7.4%

Shetland Islands 83,663 4.4%

Eilean Siar 75,640 -8.2%

Edinburgh, City Of 176,526 1.1%

East Renfrewshire 168,132 -8.8%

East Dunbartonshire 160,331 -8.6%

East Lothian 152,826 -7.5%

Stirling 144,367 -4.0%

Midlothian 134,238 -0.5%

Scottish Borders 130,622 -7.9%

Aberdeenshire 127,195 -3.4%

Highland 125,711 -3.4%

Glasgow City 124,370 -0.6%

Argyll And Bute 119,923 -5.9%

Isle Of Anglesey £145,033 -12.2%

Newport £144,790 -5.0%

Flintshire £142,754 -4.8%

Denbighshire £140,981 -1.9%

Swansea £139,153 -1.1%

Carmarthenshire £137,252 0.1%

Bridgend £133,572 -1.7%

Torfaen £120,546 -0.4%

Caerphilly £115,784 -1.5%

Neath Port Talbot £102,936 -2.6%

Rhondda Cynon Taff £93,453 -2.7%

Merthyr Tydfil £89,920 -4.8%

Blaenau Gwent £82,491 -7.4

Dorset £226,010 -0.5%

Devon £212,600 -0.3%

Wiltshire £209,024 -3.5%

Cornwall £203,006 -2.5%

Bournemouth £202,293 2.2%

Gloucestershire £201,799 -0.5%

North Somerset £185,780 -4.6%

Somerset £183,850 -1.5%

South Gloucestershire £182,959 -2.5%

City Of Bristol £178,116 0.6% -0.9%

Torbay £174,208 -2.0%

Swindon £155,868 -2.3%

Brighton And Hove £222,241 0.6%

West Sussex £221,415 -2.2%

Essex £212,460 -0.9%

Kent £206,628 -0.4%

East Sussex £198,541 -3.0%

Reading £196,094 -2.0%

Isle Of Wight £181,138 -0.6%

Milton Keynes £175,337 -0.6%

Thurrock £169,523 -0.6% -1.5%

Southampton £161,716 -1.3%

Portsmouth £154,803 0.6%

Medway £154,231 -2.1%

City Of London £313,388 -4.5%

Hammersmith And Fulham £1,401,250 -17.9%

Wandsworth £1,230,830 -11.2%

Lewisham £351,863 -22.3%

Waltham Forest £317,750 -18.7% -28.1% 6

Newham £226,026 -22.2%

Enfield £568,411 -13.7% -18.6%

Chelsea £2,020,714 -18.2%

City Of Westminster £1,819,466 -20.2%

Camden £1,224,703 -6.5%

Islington £519,102 -37.1%

Hackney £420,577 -15.3%

Harrow £538,874 -9.6% -13.9%

Lambeth £527,750 -2.8%

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Can someone remind me - what do Hometrack base their figures on?

A survey of EAs according to Home.co.uk

"Verdict

Although it is one of the most timely house price indices, the striking ambiguity regarding data sources and type, undermines our confidence in the Hometrack index as a reliable source of property price information"

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The Hometrack index is based on a voluntary survey of up to 3,500 Estate Agents from all over the country; the number of respondents, however, remains undisclosed and there is no independent verification of these claims. Hometrack does not make clear as to whether the data are based on estimated (average) asking prices, actual asking prices, or sales prices.

http://www.home.co.uk/guides/house_prices_...s/Hometrack.htm

Sounds a bit like RICS "sentiment" survey. Not many EAs around that admit they believe their livlihood is suffering.

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Guest Alright Jack

I have something further to add to my comments.

http://newsvote.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/programmes/...box/5112926.stm

This is a very nice juicy bit of help for all those owners of ransakced property. Now the coucil will renovate the place and act on your behalf as a letting agent.

Cool, buy a god I awful sh!thole, leave it for 6 months then get a subsidy!

I might look into this opportunity although I'd resigned myself as being done messing with property for the time being.

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Most of the VI "surveys" tend to support their cause of more HPI and MEW in line with Gordon's "Miracle Economy."

I like the ODPM's figures best as they are based on actual sales. They lag a bit but do reflect what has happened in the market place. For a nice dose of refreshing good news (The bulls and trolls hate it when I post this!):

What is that 3 – 6 months behind – there is no use looking backwards – you need to know what is happening now – and the truth is houses are going up by about £1000 a month – the ODPM's figures are accurate but it does not do anything to tell you what is going on now – Rightmove at least tell you what way the market is heading – hometrack confirm that and then with ODPM you can count the actual cost- but by the time they actually tell you which way they are going it could have changed again.

Best to look at them all with a pinch of salt – 6 months from now ODPM's figures will be telling you 1% increases

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Rightmove tells you nothing. They base their figures on ASKING price when the house comes to market. So if your house was put on the market for say £180000, but sold for £130000, according to rightmove stats the 180k is included in the average. So all agents do is keep increasing the figures and there you go "house prices rise".

Realist bear, do you have links for those figures, and are those falls for the last year or last quarter?

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Most of the VI "surveys" tend to support their cause of more HPI and MEW in line with Gordon's "Miracle Economy."

I like the ODPM's figures best as they are based on actual sales. They lag a bit but do reflect what has happened in the market place. For a nice dose of refreshing good news (The bulls and trolls hate it when I post this!):

Land Registry statistics for the Q ending March 2006.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/shared/spl/hi/in_d...tml/region1.stm

Northumberland £149,225 -8.8%

Cumbria £143,851 -1.6%

Tyne And Wear £132,526 -0.3%

Stockton-On-Tees £128,643 -5.0%

Darlington £125,556 -5.6%

Durham £114,329 -4.3%

Redcar And Cleveland £109,289 -11.2%

Middlesbrough £108,982 4.7%

Hartlepool £98,770 -5.2%

East Riding Of Yorkshire £154,431 -4.5%

West Yorkshire £138,242 -1.1%

South Yorkshire £126,326 -1.4%

North Lincolnshire £122,869 -2.7%

North East Lincolnshire £102,179 -1.9%

Rutland £228,672 -7.7%

Leicestershire £170,145 -3.5%

Northamptonshire £158,537 -3.5%

Lincolnshire £147,659 -1.9%

Derbyshire £147,537 -3.5%

Nottinghamshire £146,871 -2.0%

City Of Derby £137,082 -0.3%

Leicester £134,130 0.3%

City Of Nottingham £119,797 -5.2%

Worcestershire £184,936 -3.3%

Warwickshire £184,860 -3.4%

Shropshire £184,664 -3.1%

Staffordshire £161,232 -0.1%

West Midlands £146,903 0.3%

Wrekin £140,819 1.2%

Stoke-On-Trent £89,910 -5.6%

Cheshire £185,036 -1.6%

Warrington £156,929 -4.5%

Greater Manchester £134,935 -2.1%

Merseyside £132,854 0.3%

Lancashire £128,806 -1.9%

Halton £127,289 -5.3%

Blackpool £119,112 2.8%

Blackburn With Darwen £98,762 -2.1%

Moray 101,031 -6.1%

Clackmannanshire 100,282 -6.8%

North Ayrshire 98,127 -1.9%

North Lanarkshire 96,363 1.7%

East Ayrshire 92,883 -10.3%

Orkney Islands 88,463 -10.3%

West Dunbartonshire 88,299 -7.4%

Shetland Islands 83,663 4.4%

Eilean Siar 75,640 -8.2%

Edinburgh, City Of 176,526 1.1%

East Renfrewshire 168,132 -8.8%

East Dunbartonshire 160,331 -8.6%

East Lothian 152,826 -7.5%

Stirling 144,367 -4.0%

Midlothian 134,238 -0.5%

Scottish Borders 130,622 -7.9%

Aberdeenshire 127,195 -3.4%

Highland 125,711 -3.4%

Glasgow City 124,370 -0.6%

Argyll And Bute 119,923 -5.9%

Isle Of Anglesey £145,033 -12.2%

Newport £144,790 -5.0%

Flintshire £142,754 -4.8%

Denbighshire £140,981 -1.9%

Swansea £139,153 -1.1%

Carmarthenshire £137,252 0.1%

Bridgend £133,572 -1.7%

Torfaen £120,546 -0.4%

Caerphilly £115,784 -1.5%

Neath Port Talbot £102,936 -2.6%

Rhondda Cynon Taff £93,453 -2.7%

Merthyr Tydfil £89,920 -4.8%

Blaenau Gwent £82,491 -7.4

Dorset £226,010 -0.5%

Devon £212,600 -0.3%

Wiltshire £209,024 -3.5%

Cornwall £203,006 -2.5%

Bournemouth £202,293 2.2%

Gloucestershire £201,799 -0.5%

North Somerset £185,780 -4.6%

Somerset £183,850 -1.5%

South Gloucestershire £182,959 -2.5%

City Of Bristol £178,116 0.6% -0.9%

Torbay £174,208 -2.0%

Swindon £155,868 -2.3%

Brighton And Hove £222,241 0.6%

West Sussex £221,415 -2.2%

Essex £212,460 -0.9%

Kent £206,628 -0.4%

East Sussex £198,541 -3.0%

Reading £196,094 -2.0%

Isle Of Wight £181,138 -0.6%

Milton Keynes £175,337 -0.6%

Thurrock £169,523 -0.6% -1.5%

Southampton £161,716 -1.3%

Portsmouth £154,803 0.6%

Medway £154,231 -2.1%

City Of London £313,388 -4.5%

Hammersmith And Fulham £1,401,250 -17.9%

Wandsworth £1,230,830 -11.2%

Lewisham £351,863 -22.3%

Waltham Forest £317,750 -18.7% -28.1% 6

Newham £226,026 -22.2%

Enfield £568,411 -13.7% -18.6%

Chelsea £2,020,714 -18.2%

City Of Westminster £1,819,466 -20.2%

Camden £1,224,703 -6.5%

Islington £519,102 -37.1%

Hackney £420,577 -15.3%

Harrow £538,874 -9.6% -13.9%

Lambeth £527,750 -2.8%

Are the figures for Fulham, Islington, and Westminster really true?? If so, then are these the epicentre for a HPC (London leads the way in all thing financial in this country?).

-37.1% Good God!

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Those figures Realist bear always quotes are absolute rubish, based on small samples which sqew the average and produce minus numbers.

They bear no relation to any house price movements due to the small sample size.

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I think it's quite frankly silly to dismiss Hometrack as nonsense, recently their data has been regarded as one of the more objective surveys on here. Just 'cos things are not going the way of all the HPC mentalists does not make Hometrack wrong. Yes house prices are over valued, yes it is making for misery amongst a whole generation of potential first time buyers, however, screaming 'VI' at anything that does not fit into a cosy theory of apocalypse does not add to the debate.

The HPC is so over cooked now, by two years for some on here, even a major correction, 20%, will simply take prices back to the unaffordable 2004 levels in the majority of the country. Solution....? :(

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I think it's quite frankly silly to dismiss Hometrack as nonsense, recently their data has been regarded as one of the more objective surveys on here. Just 'cos things are not going the way of all the HPC mentalists does not make Hometrack wrong. Yes house prices are over valued, yes it is making for misery amongst a whole generation of potential first time buyers, however, screaming 'VI' at anything that does not fit into a cosy theory of apocalypse does not add to the debate.

The HPC is so over cooked now, by two years for some on here, even a major correction, 20%, will simply take prices back to the unaffordable 2004 levels in the majority of the country. Solution....? :(

You're right, Hometrack are relatively independent and were producing very bearish reports last year. However the stats never tell you the true state of the market or how vulnerable it is to collapse. Look at the fundementals. A small interest rate rise is all it will take and yes, if IRs don't rise, the market is unlikely to crash.

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Most of the VI "surveys" tend to support their cause of more HPI and MEW in line with Gordon's "Miracle Economy."

I like the ODPM's figures best as they are based on actual sales. They lag a bit but do reflect what has happened in the market place. For a nice dose of refreshing good news (The bulls and trolls hate it when I post this!):

Land Registry statistics for the Q ending March 2006.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/shared/spl/hi/in_d...tml/region1.stm

Northumberland £149,225 -8.8%

Cumbria £143,851 -1.6%

Tyne And Wear £132,526 -0.3%

Stockton-On-Tees £128,643 -5.0%

Darlington £125,556 -5.6%

Durham £114,329 -4.3%

Redcar And Cleveland £109,289 -11.2%

Middlesbrough £108,982 4.7%

Hartlepool £98,770 -5.2%

East Riding Of Yorkshire £154,431 -4.5%

West Yorkshire £138,242 -1.1%

South Yorkshire £126,326 -1.4%

North Lincolnshire £122,869 -2.7%

North East Lincolnshire £102,179 -1.9%

Rutland £228,672 -7.7%

Leicestershire £170,145 -3.5%

Northamptonshire £158,537 -3.5%

Lincolnshire £147,659 -1.9%

Derbyshire £147,537 -3.5%

Nottinghamshire £146,871 -2.0%

City Of Derby £137,082 -0.3%

Leicester £134,130 0.3%

City Of Nottingham £119,797 -5.2%

Worcestershire £184,936 -3.3%

Warwickshire £184,860 -3.4%

Shropshire £184,664 -3.1%

Staffordshire £161,232 -0.1%

West Midlands £146,903 0.3%

Wrekin £140,819 1.2%

Stoke-On-Trent £89,910 -5.6%

Cheshire £185,036 -1.6%

Warrington £156,929 -4.5%

Greater Manchester £134,935 -2.1%

Merseyside £132,854 0.3%

Lancashire £128,806 -1.9%

Halton £127,289 -5.3%

Blackpool £119,112 2.8%

Blackburn With Darwen £98,762 -2.1%

Moray 101,031 -6.1%

Clackmannanshire 100,282 -6.8%

North Ayrshire 98,127 -1.9%

North Lanarkshire 96,363 1.7%

East Ayrshire 92,883 -10.3%

Orkney Islands 88,463 -10.3%

West Dunbartonshire 88,299 -7.4%

Shetland Islands 83,663 4.4%

Eilean Siar 75,640 -8.2%

Edinburgh, City Of 176,526 1.1%

East Renfrewshire 168,132 -8.8%

East Dunbartonshire 160,331 -8.6%

East Lothian 152,826 -7.5%

Stirling 144,367 -4.0%

Midlothian 134,238 -0.5%

Scottish Borders 130,622 -7.9%

Aberdeenshire 127,195 -3.4%

Highland 125,711 -3.4%

Glasgow City 124,370 -0.6%

Argyll And Bute 119,923 -5.9%

Isle Of Anglesey £145,033 -12.2%

Newport £144,790 -5.0%

Flintshire £142,754 -4.8%

Denbighshire £140,981 -1.9%

Swansea £139,153 -1.1%

Carmarthenshire £137,252 0.1%

Bridgend £133,572 -1.7%

Torfaen £120,546 -0.4%

Caerphilly £115,784 -1.5%

Neath Port Talbot £102,936 -2.6%

Rhondda Cynon Taff £93,453 -2.7%

Merthyr Tydfil £89,920 -4.8%

Blaenau Gwent £82,491 -7.4

Dorset £226,010 -0.5%

Devon £212,600 -0.3%

Wiltshire £209,024 -3.5%

Cornwall £203,006 -2.5%

Bournemouth £202,293 2.2%

Gloucestershire £201,799 -0.5%

North Somerset £185,780 -4.6%

Somerset £183,850 -1.5%

South Gloucestershire £182,959 -2.5%

City Of Bristol £178,116 0.6% -0.9%

Torbay £174,208 -2.0%

Swindon £155,868 -2.3%

Brighton And Hove £222,241 0.6%

West Sussex £221,415 -2.2%

Essex £212,460 -0.9%

Kent £206,628 -0.4%

East Sussex £198,541 -3.0%

Reading £196,094 -2.0%

Isle Of Wight £181,138 -0.6%

Milton Keynes £175,337 -0.6%

Thurrock £169,523 -0.6% -1.5%

Southampton £161,716 -1.3%

Portsmouth £154,803 0.6%

Medway £154,231 -2.1%

City Of London £313,388 -4.5%

Hammersmith And Fulham £1,401,250 -17.9%

Wandsworth £1,230,830 -11.2%

Lewisham £351,863 -22.3%

Waltham Forest £317,750 -18.7% -28.1% 6

Newham £226,026 -22.2%

Enfield £568,411 -13.7% -18.6%

Chelsea £2,020,714 -18.2%

City Of Westminster £1,819,466 -20.2%

Camden £1,224,703 -6.5%

Islington £519,102 -37.1%

Hackney £420,577 -15.3%

Harrow £538,874 -9.6% -13.9%

Lambeth £527,750 -2.8%

Shetland Islands still going up I see... :unsure:

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Pardon my ignorance, but what does 'VI' stand for?

A perfectly reasonable question for a newbie. Welcome :)

Vested Interest

Note to Webmaster: Perhaps a key to jargon might be in order.

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  • 301 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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