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Guest muttley

Markets Jittery On Ir Worries

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Guest muttley

Rates Decision Countdown

The futures market seemed to be giving a slim probability – just 12 per cent – to the chance of a 50bp rise.

Apparently the markets have already priced in the next IR rise for the US, but now they are saying a 12% (is that slim?) chance of a 0.5% rise.

The article also mentions that IRs could reach 6% this year. I guess oil price is the key.

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Rates Decision Countdown

Apparently the markets have already priced in the next IR rise for the US, but now they are saying a 12% (is that slim?) chance of a 0.5% rise.

The article also mentions that IRs could reach 6% this year. I guess oil price is the key.

In the bookies that's about 8 to 1 (or 25 to 3 closer).

Don't put your house on it!

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Guest muttley

Don't put your house on it!

I think a few people already did.

Barclays Capital are the latest to throw their cap in with the 6% camp

Pundits tip 6pc interest rates for US

BARCLAYS Capital economists joined the small but growing "6 per cent" club of analysts this week by predicting that further US monetary tightening lies ahead.

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Guest wrongmove

Rates Decision Countdown

Apparently the markets have already priced in the next IR rise for the US, but now they are saying a 12% (is that slim?) chance of a 0.5% rise.

The article also mentions that IRs could reach 6% this year. I guess oil price is the key.

According to Betfair odds, a 0.5% rise is as likely as no change:

22/1 - no change

1/20 - +0.25%

22/1 - +0.5%

You can get 900/1 on a 0.5% cut !!!

Also, ECB for a 0.25% rise are 5/1, MPC are 23/1.

Edited by wrongmove

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According to Betfair odds, a 0.5% rise is as likely as no change:

22/1 - no change

1/20 - +0.25%

22/1 - +0.5%

You can get 900/1 on a 0.5% cut !!!

Also, ECB for a 0.25% rise are 5/1, MPC are 23/1.

good old MPC

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  • 301 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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