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RichM

An Interesting Summer Ahead?

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World cup fever dominates the papers at the moment which is fair enough. Then Wimbledon. No Ashes. Nothing else major is there?

Then we're into the silly season. BUT - IRs might be heading up in July/August, HIPS are going to be introduced soon... Anything else that is going to grab people's attention?

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World cup fever dominates the papers at the moment which is fair enough. Then Wimbledon. No Ashes. Nothing else major is there?

Then we're into the silly season. BUT - IRs might be heading up in July/August, HIPS are going to be introduced soon... Anything else that is going to grab people's attention?

Median Prices for US Existing Home Sales going down year-on-year in June or July? (Each month is reported on or about 25th of following month.)

Sounds pretty geekish, but the VI's in the US have really hung their collective hat on the fact that this measure has never fallen since the NAR started keeping comprehensive statistics in 1968.

So a fall would get big media coverage.

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I think Jap IR hikes will be the big news. The banks will begin moving before the BoE has to hike and then Gordon has his scapegoat for the HPC.

A largish stock market crash will also dominate the news if oil continues to be a problem and if the US goes into recession which seems very likely as their durable goods orders fell for a second time--back-to-back. A clear indicator of recessionay trends.

My gut feeling is that the falls the ODPM has reported for last Q will continue and spread to London. If the stockmarket does tank trading will taper off and layoffs in the thousands will follow. If you check the ODPM stats on the City of London their house prices dropped over 4% last Q which may be an indication.

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  • 301 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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