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Realistbear

Currency Market: Sterling At The Edge Of The Cliff

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http://www.dailyfx.com/story/currency_cros...keyword=article

GBPJPY– GBP/JPY appears to be on the brink of collapse following massive negative divergence with price at a recent double top on daily and intraday charts. Wave structure on the hourly favors the bearish view as well with the decline from 213.68 in 5 waves and the subsequent rally from 211.28 unfolding in 3 waves and appearing corrective. If this is the correct interpretation of price action – then measured objectives target fibo extensions of 213.69-211.28 at 208.81 (138.2%) and 208.23 (161.8%). The 38.2% fibo of 200.55-213.68 comes in at 208.73 as well. On the other hand, additional consolidation of the decline from 213.68 could test the short term double top from the last two day’s highs at 212.64/66.

Currency market may begin to sell sterling off. It is amazing it has held up against the world currencies with so much negative news: unemployment now in all sectors including once solid services sector, deficit widening, chronic inflation with no will to raise rates, sad death of sole voice of reason on the MPC, unprecedented levels of personal debt and rising bankruptcies, highly unpopular government.

Down about 350 points since the sad news Of Mr. Walton's death:

1 U.K. £ =

1 1.8171

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GBPJPY– GBP/JPY appears to be on the brink of collapse following massive negative divergence with price at a recent double top on daily and intraday charts. Wave structure on the hourly favors the bearish view as well with the decline from 213.68 in 5 waves and the subsequent rally from 211.28 unfolding in 3 waves and appearing corrective.

Come again????

Edited by The Colour

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http://www.dailyfx.com/story/currency_cros...keyword=article

GBPJPY– GBP/JPY appears to be on the brink of collapse following massive negative divergence with price at a recent double top on daily and intraday charts. Wave structure on the hourly favors the bearish view as well with the decline from 213.68 in 5 waves and the subsequent rally from 211.28 unfolding in 3 waves and appearing corrective. If this is the correct interpretation of price action – then measured objectives target fibo extensions of 213.69-211.28 at 208.81 (138.2%) and 208.23 (161.8%). The 38.2% fibo of 200.55-213.68 comes in at 208.73 as well. On the other hand, additional consolidation of the decline from 213.68 could test the short term double top from the last two day’s highs at 212.64/66.

Currency market may begin to sell sterling off. It is amazing it has held up against the world currencies with so much negative news: unemployment now in all sectors including once solid services sector, deficit widening, chronic inflation with no will to raise rates, sad death of sole voice of reason on the MPC, unprecedented levels of personal debt and rising bankruptcies, highly unpopular government.

Down about 350 points since the sad news Of Mr. Walton's death:

1 U.K. £ =

1 1.8171

So far GBP/JPY movement no more significant than Tuesday's drop

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http://www.dailyfx.com/story/currency_cros...keyword=article

GBPJPY– GBP/JPY appears to be on the brink of collapse following massive negative divergence with price at a recent double top on daily and intraday charts. Wave structure on the hourly favors the bearish view as well with the decline from 213.68 in 5 waves and the subsequent rally from 211.28 unfolding in 3 waves and appearing corrective. If this is the correct interpretation of price action – then measured objectives target fibo extensions of 213.69-211.28 at 208.81 (138.2%) and 208.23 (161.8%). The 38.2% fibo of 200.55-213.68 comes in at 208.73 as well. On the other hand, additional consolidation of the decline from 213.68 could test the short term double top from the last two day’s highs at 212.64/66.

Currency market may begin to sell sterling off. It is amazing it has held up against the world currencies with so much negative news: unemployment now in all sectors including once solid services sector, deficit widening, chronic inflation with no will to raise rates, sad death of sole voice of reason on the MPC, unprecedented levels of personal debt and rising bankruptcies, highly unpopular government.

Down about 350 points since the sad news Of Mr. Walton's death:

1 U.K. £ =

1 1.8171

Interesting theory, will you be shorting it?

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This is the 3,421 st post about sterling coming down.

During the duration of these posts - sterling has gone up.

Any chance of a new subject - or at least an acknowledgment that most of what has been said on the subject has been completely and totally wrong!

Edited by Marina

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This is the 3,421 st post about sterling coming down.

During the duration of these posts - sterling has gone up.

Any chance of a new subject - or at least an acknowledgment that most of what has been said on the subject has been completely and totally wrong!

As Sir Paul wrote, "this ever changing world which we live in."

As all things go in cycles we can expect to see yesterday's star become tomorrow's disaster.

I am not sure if everything that has been said about sterling has been wrong as some saw it rising and it has. It is important because sterling and the relationship to IR is a crucial topic for HPCers. Particularly since Gordon cannto raise rates and maintain HPI. His choice is a HPC or a sterling crash. I am hoping for both--then a decent rebound in sterling but no rebound for HPI for at least a generation.

Down during this post:

Friday,23 June 2006, 7:46pm - UK Markets Closed

U.K. £ =

1 1.8193

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During the duration of these posts - sterling has gone up.

Against the US dollar. Which has been sinking against most currencies.

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The MPC is getting us ready to converge with the euro zone on interest rates IMHO. Euro rate going up, bank of england rate hovering where it is. The agenda is for convergence at any cost - including devaluation of sterling.

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The MPC is getting us ready to converge with the euro zone on interest rates IMHO. Euro rate going up, bank of england rate hovering where it is. The agenda is for convergence at any cost - including devaluation of sterling.

Interesting thesis...can't see it sopmehow but that would be a way to get out of the shit.

Any problems that follow could be blamed on the bumpy changeover

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Against the US dollar. Which has been sinking against most currencies.

and for the last couple of days the dollar has been strong against all currencies, particularly after the new zealand dollar tanked - additionally there is rumour of a half point hike in rates in the u.s. next week

Come again????

elliot wave nonsense

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http://www.dailyfx.com/story/dailyfx_repor...keyword=article

Euro Could Break 1.2529

· Japanese Yen Holding Above 116.00

· British Pound Still Not Wanted

· Swiss Franc Also to 1.2500

· Canadian Dollar Prepares To Test Resistance

· Australian Dollar Breaking Down

· New Zealand Dollar Heading To Previous Low

Is this a turning point for Gordon? Has the market rumbled the "Miracle Economy" and how it is going to be affected in the new IR tightening environment? After all, Gordon's miracle was built on cheap credit from Asia. The credit is no longer cheap and it makes sense that whatever rose on cheap IR will fall on high rates.

I can see the HPC a little clearer now, its dreadful and hideous head is looming on the horizon, so close you can almost touch it. It will destroy all in it's path by will bypass those houses that are marked with the sign "Renter."

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This is the 3,421 st post about sterling coming down.

During the duration of these posts - sterling has gone up.

Any chance of a new subject - or at least an acknowledgment that most of what has been said on the subject has been completely and totally wrong!

:lol:

Oh no, it's the pound is crashing thread again!

:lol:

Anyone would think that there isn't a FOMC meeting next week.

:rolleyes:

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http://business.timesonline.co.uk/article/...2238572,00.html

The Times June 24, 2006

Hot money drives prices crazy

Graham Searjeant, Personal Investor

If the past month’s share price plunge ended with indices at this week’s levels, an odd story would unfold. Globally, all the main markets have fallen sharply since the first week of May but the falls have been far from uniform.
....../
The break was triggered by semi-official US acceptance, after a finance ministers’ meeting, that the dollar was unsustainably high. Logically, foreigners would have sold US assets. But US investors matter more and they reckoned there was no place like home. Concern about US inflation then raised fears of higher US interest rates; OK for the dollar but bad for US bonds. Yet bonds held up and foreign shares were sold. America still drives global growth, so if investors saw US prospects worsening, it might make sense to retreat from emerging markets more sensitive to changes in the world economy.
......./
The more volatile share prices are, relative to long-term returns, the more risky and less attractive shares seem to investors compared with alternative assets. This is an issue for the UK as well as for emerging markets. Foreign investors now own a third of UK shares. Most are conventional pension investors, though no more loyal than we are to Wall Street or Frankfurt.
In London hedge funds and others chasing short-term movements account for more of the trading than they do in Japan. So far the FTSE 100 shows only embryonic signs of becoming rangebound with a top of about 6,000, but we have been warned.

IMO, the pain has yet to be felt in the London market. Gordon's Miracle is unwravelling and there are very few reasons to invest in sterling with low comparitive IR, inflation, rising deficit and unemployment and too much dependence on HPI to fuel GDP growth.

Edited by Realistbear

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IMO, the pain has yet to be felt in the London market. Gordon's Miracle is unwravelling and there are very few reasons to invest in sterling with low comparitive IR, inflation, rising deficit and unemployment and too much dependence on HPI to fuel GDP growth.

We *know*, RB. You say it every other post.

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  • 301 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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