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walker127

Number Of Houses For Sale In My Area.

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I started recording how many properties were for sale (Rightmove.com) below 200K in two post code areas near where I was planning to buy:- CH43 and CH42 which is in Birkenhead Merseyside.

CH43 <200K

Jan 05 there were 79 properties for sale.

Today there are 234

CH42 <200K

Jan 05 there were 59 properties for sale,

Today there are 152

I don't know if prices have come down, people are trying to off load their properties or that nothing is selling and more and more properties are coming onto the market. Its just a statistic I have been recording and there is certainly a trend there which I don't think can go on increasing indefinately.

Is this happening in other areas?

PS I haven't bought a house, still renting.

Edited by walker127

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I started recording how many properties were for sale below 200K in two post code areas near where I was planning to buy:- CH43 and CH42 which is in Birkenhead Merseyside.

CH43 <200K

Jan 05 there were 79 properties for sale.

Today there are 234

CH42 <200K

Jan 05 there were 59 properties for sale,

Today there are 152

I don't know if prices have come down, people are trying to off load their properties or that nothing is selling and more and more properties are coming onto the market. Its just a statistic I have been recording and there is certainly a trend there which I don't think can go on increasing indefinately.

Is this happening in other areas?

PS I haven't bought a house, still renting.

I have an idea that asking the "Property For Sale" signmakers would have some idea.

In my old home area, Southern California, where I lived for quite a few years they have the highest number of houses for sale ever recorded. The rising IR are causing a lot of pain and owners are having to get out as their IO and adjustable rates loans re-gear to present reality. Given the huge debt multiples that have characterised house purchases in the UK over the last 4 years or so I doubt it will take much to trigger a rush to the exits here also. The US and UK went down together in 1989 and it looks like history is about to repeat itself--again.

Companies who make EA signs:

http://www.curtisscreenprint.co.uk/curtis_...tate_agents.htm

http://www.estate-signs.co.uk/

http://www.estateagentsign.co.uk/

:)

Edited by Realistbear

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Guest X-QUORK

Be careful when comparing January figures with June as many sellers either remove their property through the Christmas/New Year period, or wait until the spring to put it on.

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I started recording how many properties were for sale (Rightmove.com) below 200K in two post code areas near where I was planning to buy:- CH43 and CH42 which is in Birkenhead Merseyside.

CH43 <200K

Jan 05 there were 79 properties for sale.

Today there are 234

CH42 <200K

Jan 05 there were 59 properties for sale,

Today there are 152

I don't know if prices have come down, people are trying to off load their properties or that nothing is selling and more and more properties are coming onto the market. Its just a statistic I have been recording and there is certainly a trend there which I don't think can go on increasing indefinately.

Is this happening in other areas?

PS I haven't bought a house, still renting.

I don't know Birkenhead that well. Are there hundreds of apartmets being built like there are in the city of Liverpool?

If so it would explain a rise in available property.

Be careful when comparing January figures with June as many sellers either remove their property through the Christmas/New Year period, or wait until the spring to put it on.

Good point.

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Be careful when comparing January figures with June as many sellers either remove their property through the Christmas/New Year period, or wait until the spring to put it on.

It is still one hell of a big difference though.

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I know Berkin'ead quite well. I think the stats show 2 things. For a start JUNE is far busier than January so I would expect at least a doubling of available housing.

Secondly, From looking at Liverpool there are SHED LOADS of properties for sale. This talk of 'shortages' is complete rubbish. Sutton Kersh and Sykes Waterhouse on Allerton Road in Liverpool have an average of 330 properties PER BRANCH!!!!!

So this is a culmination of the 2 imho.

A good Judge will be NEXT JANUARY - Try and look at the data then. With possible IR rises on the cards I can see the EA's getting realistic about pricing. They will end up with too many properties on their books.

TB

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As well as the large stock of unsold property,what I have noticed is the low proportion of 'Sold'to 'For Sale' signs.I have being doing occational counts of roadside signs since about 1985,as it usually is a good indicator of the health of the market.During the third quarter of1988,for example,I was getting results of 90% sold.An average market is usually in the 15-20%sold range.My more recent counts in Yorkshire,Nottinghamshire and Derbyshire are consistently around the 10% sold mark.I have never known a more difficult market to sell in than this.I should know,I have just spent the last nineteen months part-exchanging my way out of the property market;had I not,I would probably still be struggling to sell the large property I had in the first place as opposed to sitting on cash asI am.

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I think that by choosing two very specific samples of data i.e. the number of houses at a particular price, at two particular times (whilst knowing that average prices have fluctuated a lot during the interening period) the results are too narrow to mean anything. You can't really analyse this in any meaningful way without looking at more data.

And as a general note, you have to remember that - by and large - when someone is selling a house they are also planning on buying a house so I wouldn't put too much store in that as a sign of imminent HPC.

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And as a general note, you have to remember that - by and large - when someone is selling a house they are also planning on buying a house so I wouldn't put too much store in that as a sign of imminent HPC.

So is increasing number of houses for sale with 'no upward chain' a sign of imminent HPC, if that's the case then i think HPC is pretty much on it's way in my area.

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It's the 'Spring Bounce'. Not many buyers lots of seller. The world cup is distracting people, then we go into the quiet July/Aug holiday period.

By the time the pre Xmas 'Autum bounce' comes arround (Sept/Oct). The MPC will be looking at a second .25% I/R rise. The course is set, has been for 10 months now.

Pablo Silver or Lead?

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  • 301 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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