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brownbear

Parliamentary Report

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:lol::lol::lol::lol::lol:

Yes, as the MPs' maths is strictly linearly additive, we can deduce that a 10% rise in rates to 14.5% will lead to a 0.2% to 0.4% fall. But beware a 100% interest rate rise to 114.5% which could lead to a hefty 2% to 4% fall in prices.

:lol::lol::lol:

But wouldn't you read it the other way, a 1% rise in rates, taking them to 4.545%, would result in prices fall 0.02 to 0.04%.

So a rise to 6% would result in falls of (1.5/4.5 = 33.33% rise in rates) 0.067 to 1.33%. So only a months rise by Rightmove's measure!!

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See page 21 for this gem:

:lol::lol::lol::lol::lol:

I read this earlier and it didnt make any sense so I looked into it...it is taken from "A sustainability impact study of additional housing scenarios in England".

It originates from "a review of regional house price models by Meen and Andrew (1998)"...(in fact the DCLG even get this wrong saying the report was published ten years earlier 1988!).

If you then go to that original report their table also says "interest rates -0.02 to -0.04", however in the main body of text it says...."A one percentage point rise in interest rates would reduce house prices by between 2 and 4 percent."

http://www.communities.gov.uk/index.asp?id=1155843

So the clever old DCLG is repeating a mistake they originally made 8 years ago!

Also worth noting that in 1998 interest rates were 7.5% (66% higher than today) so comparing the effect of a 1% rise in rates today with 8 years ago is utterly meaningless.

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Im afraid all government will deliver is more house price boosting rubbish which claims to 'help' FTB's.

With housing it seems that 'affordable' doesnt mean lower house prices. It mean a new bottom rung of the ladder , i.e. pre-fab, or shared ownership which means you pay silly money for lhalf a house.

Edited by simon99

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:lol::lol::lol::lol::lol:

Yes, as the MPs' maths is strictly linearly additive, we can deduce that a 10% rise in rates to 14.5% will lead to a 0.2% to 0.4% fall. But beware a 100% interest rate rise to 114.5% which could lead to a hefty 2% to 4% fall in prices.

:lol::lol::lol:

Clearly they were taught maths by the same buffoon who provided the formula that's indicating UK inflation at 2.2% :lol::rolleyes:

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Read page 8 - nimbyism at its best. Apparently new houses create urban sprawl and global warming. Thats easy then, everyone under 30 can share forever.

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Im afraid all government will deliver is more house price boosting rubbish which claims to 'help' FTB's.

All the more reason to get on their case. FTB's need to be seen to be very vocal on this issue, that way they cannot fob us off so easily.

Here is the problem with government policy right here in the summary

Homeownership offers unparalleled opportunities for households to accumulate wealth
Edited by DoubleBubbleTrouble

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  • 301 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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