2010 Depression

[West Bromwich Albino]

I know a few posters have read this book - I have now done so myself and was wondering people's thoughts on the possibility of it all crashing down around our ears 2007 - 2010 as Fred Harrison proposes?

The theories make sense to me and seem to be following the course, but is anyone (else!) pinning their hopes on this occurence?

[dogbox]

I know a few posters have read this book - I have now done so myself and was wondering people's thoughts on the possibility of it all crashing down around our ears 2007 - 2010 as Fred Harrison proposes?

The theories make sense to me and seem to be following the course, but is anyone (else!) pinning their hopes on this occurence?

Its a bit like that other masterpiece "The Comming Crash Of 1993".

[Assurbanipal]

I haven't read any book of this author, but instead I read other prediction of the recession:

http://www.forbes.com/2006/06/06/stack-rec...artner=yahootix

Recession will start at the end of 2006/beginning 2007.

Merged with massive, wide-spreaded among many leading economies housing bubble (the biggest bubble in the history of the economy...) will casue a depression.

[Kris]

Its a bit like that other masterpiece "The Comming Crash Of 1993".

Anything like "The Next Great Bubble Boom: How to Profit from the Greatest Boom in History: 2006-2010"?

He predicts a bull run between now and 2010. A depression is predicted in this book after 2010. He also predicts a hit on the SM mid-to late 2006 due to the presidential cycle. We've had a recent hit due to inflation (which he didn't predict). Maybe we'll see further falls due to the usual summer dips and then further falls for the 4 year cycle...

There's a lot of information in the book about cycles and demographics and then he has a section in it on inflation. He assumes inflation will not rise due to demographics. What are we seeing globally at the moment with inflation fears and interest rate hikes?

Ps. If i've interpreted this book incorrectly, please let me know as it's the first of these type of books that i've read.

[thefruits]

I know a few posters have read this book - I have now done so myself and was wondering people's thoughts on the possibility of it all crashing down around our ears 2007 - 2010 as Fred Harrison proposes?

The theories make sense to me and seem to be following the course, but is anyone (else!) pinning their hopes on this occurence?

I read it and found it generally thoroughly illuminating. Im a STR who is awaiting the long overdue correction in house prices so that the house that is currently for sale 50 yards from me is priced at a more realistic £350-£400k rather than the silly £635k its on at currently. http://www.rightmove.co.uk/viewdetails-657...pa_n=3&tr_t=buy

I live in hope rather than expectation

In the meantime, Im a happy renter (covered elsewhere to death). The book talks about (IIRC) the winners curve (or something like that) that we've now entered up until the housing market takes an almighty crash. I'm very happy with all these tales of house price inflation as the more aggressive the upturn in prices, the more dramatic the fall.

I've also recently read Roger Bootles latest book (ok), Wake up (ok but a little bit OTT to spend a whole chapter slagging off an author with a different opinion - Thomas Friedman) and The World is Flat (by Thomas Friedman - interesting)

[Tuberider]

I also read Fred Harrison's book

I enjoyed it, and have no qualms with his theory of 18-year cycles in the land market.

Only 2 complaints:

1) He tells us that land value cycles have become globally synchronized after WW2. However the evidence would seem to contradict this assertion. Japanese land values have been falling for quite a while and the German property market seems pretty stagnant lately too, although I think both are likely to see an upswing soon. The only markets which seem to be synchronized are the US, UK and Australia. Some other markets have seen upturns around the same time as these three, but it seems to be a result of British buyers opting for second homes or investment properties in Spain, Bulgaria etc

2) The title is a little sensationalist - he seems like a serious commentator, his predicitions are pretty much panning out nicely but predicting a 'depression' is a little risky. He's quite sketchy as well as to how bad this Depression will be, and why he thinks a Depression is likely and not just a bad recession like we had last time around. Unless of course, a depression and a recession are seen by many as one and the same thing.

I, however see a distinct difference between the two. to quote Ronnie Regan, 'a recession is when your neighbour loses his job, a depression is when YOU lose your own'.

Have just begun reading Harold K Shipler ' The Working Poor' - 25 pages in and it is excellent, I hope it remains so throughout the duration.

[jonathan trees]

Fred Harrison is dead wrong. There will never be a crash in house prices.

The STRs are just simply wasting their time waiting for a property crash that is never going to happen.

[shermanator]

I read it and found it generally thoroughly illuminating. Im a STR who is awaiting the long overdue correction in house prices so that the house that is currently for sale 50 yards from me is priced at a more realistic £350-£400k rather than the silly £635k its on at currently. http://www.rightmove.co.uk/viewdetails-657...pa_n=3&tr_t=buy

I live in hope rather than expectation

In the meantime, Im a happy renter (covered elsewhere to death). The book talks about (IIRC) the winners curve (or something like that) that we've now entered up until the housing market takes an almighty crash. I'm very happy with all these tales of house price inflation as the more aggressive the upturn in prices, the more dramatic the fall.

I've also recently read Roger Bootles latest book (ok), Wake up (ok but a little bit OTT to spend a whole chapter slagging off an author with a different opinion - Thomas Friedman) and The World is Flat (by Thomas Friedman - interesting)

Sorry, I'm a little confused. Does Fred Harrison believe the recession/depression will begin in 2006 or 2010?

As it happens, I reckon Britain is in a recession now and the US is slipping inexorably into one in the 4th qtr '06 or early '07.

[West Bromwich Albino]

I believe he says it will start in 2007 and end (trough) 2010. This being the end of an 18 year cycle starting in 1992, with the peak in 2001.

[shermanator]

I believe he says it will start in 2007 and end (trough) 2010. This being the end of an 18 year cycle starting in 1992, with the peak in 2001.

OK, thanks for that 'WBA'. So there will be 3 down years, but severe ones, I guess. Harrison is probably on the money.

[mikthe20]

I've read the book. He's a bit arrogant and often congratulates himself on predicting the last crash. His arguments are good but when I read the book I was quite sceptical about his timing - I read it in early 2005 I think and it seemed then that the market was on its way down. His prediction of a final spurt - the "winner's curse" from 2005-2007 therefore seemed wrong. However, he was absolutely right and we're seeing that last surge in the market that he predicted. I still tend to think house prices are unsustainable at this level and despite the fact that I'd rather move house sooner rather than later, I now think he's got as good an argument as anyone and hence we're likely to have to wait for house prices to start falling properly from 2008 and bottom in 2010 - with a few years of bumping the bottom to follow. Patience is a virtue (I hope!).

Edited June 20, 2006 by mikthe20

[Robert Federer]

I've read the book. He's a bit arrogant and often congratulates himself on predicting the last crash. His arguments are good but when I read the book I was quite sceptical about his timing - I read it in early 2005 I think and it seemed then that the market was on its way down. His prediction of a final spurt - the "winner's curse" from 2005-2007 therefore seemed wrong. However, he was absolutely right and we're seeing that last surge in the market that he predicted. I still tend to think house prices are unsustainable at this level and despite the fact that I'd rather move house sooner rather than later, I now think he's got as good an argument as anyone and hence we're likely to have to wait for house prices to start falling properly from 2008 and bottom in 2010 - with a few years of bumping the bottom to follow. Patience is a virtue (I hope!).

I read this book and I can say is that I used to know less about property than my dad (who used to be an estate agent) and now I believe I know much more. I subscribe to Moneyweek and they believe the same.

However, what really makes me believe it the most is the fact that we've been here before. I am 36 now and remember the late 80's and early 90's vividly. My father somehow saw the rise in property at that time but didn't see the following slump. It cost him £100,000's in opportunity cost!

Fred Harrison I am sure is right.

[Guest pioneer31]

Fred Harrison is dead wrong. There will never be a crash in house prices.

The STRs are just simply wasting their time waiting for a property crash that is never going to happen.

and your reason for thinking this?

[Robert Federer]

and your reason for thinking this?

Have you read the book? Besides all the evidence of an 18 year cycle that can in part be remembered by myself, other factors he alludes to are currently present in the economy. Affordability problems for all (especially first time buyers), record levels of debt in the economy leading to serious problems for many as interest rates rise along with unemployment and the building of more and smaller units that further increase the amount of housing stock available (increasing supply).

I don't think house prices will fall because people don't want to buy. They just will be prepared to pay less and less which equals a falling market, doesn't it?

The best thing I've read about any market was that fear and greed are both drivers. One follows the other. Surely fear is around the corner for house prices after years of 'greed'?

Please let me know your opinions.

[Guest muttley]

Anything like "The Next Great Bubble Boom: How to Profit from the Greatest Boom in History: 2006-2010"?

He predicts a bull run between now and 2010. A depression is predicted in this book after 2010. He also predicts a hit on the SM mid-to late 2006 due to the presidential cycle. We've had a recent hit due to inflation (which he didn't predict). Maybe we'll see further falls due to the usual summer dips and then further falls for the 4 year cycle...

There's a lot of information in the book about cycles and demographics and then he has a section in it on inflation. He assumes inflation will not rise due to demographics. What are we seeing globally at the moment with inflation fears and interest rate hikes?

Ps. If i've interpreted this book incorrectly, please let me know as it's the first of these type of books that i've read.

I haven't read the Harrison book, but I have read "The Next Great Bubble Boom...." by Harry S Dent. He's bullish about the SM between now and 2010, but not so much property (although no crash). After that all bets are off...

He predicts a correction in 2006, which we may already be seeing.

[Robert Federer]

I haven't read the Harrison book, but I have read "The Next Great Bubble Boom...." by Harry S Dent. He's bullish about the SM between now and 2010, but not so much property (although no crash). After that all bets are off...

He predicts a correction in 2006, which we may already be seeing.

That sounds like an interesting book too. In fact it may be equally important as Harrison doesn't linger on the movements of the Stock Market. The correction is being seen now, which if he predicted then good for him. What does this chap say about what will happen after 2010? Recession, depression or what? I feel you're alluding to bad news from the author here, and it would also tally with Harrison's own 18 year cycle that started in 1992. What did he say!?

[Guest muttley]

That sounds like an interesting book too. In fact it may be equally important as Harrison doesn't linger on the movements of the Stock Market. The correction is being seen now, which if he predicted then good for him. What does this chap say about what will happen after 2010? Recession, depression or what? I feel you're alluding to bad news from the author here, and it would also tally with Harrison's own 18 year cycle that started in 1992. What did he say!?

The biggest bust of them all.

He likens the period 2000 to 2009 to the "Roaring Twenties" and the period beyond as being deflationary, not dissimilar to the 1930's.He sees Inflation falling into early 2006, (the book was written around 2003, I think) and slowly rising into 2009.Then the deflationary cycle begins for the next decade.

He claims that tecnology, financial services, health care and Asia will be the best sectors from 2005 to 2009.Long-term bonds, health care and Asia will be the best after 2009

The basis of his claims is demographics (Those darn baby boomers again) and the book contains enough graphs about ageing populations and spending cycles to keep DrB entertained for hours.

It's just a theory.

[shermanator]

I haven't read the Harrison book, but I have read "The Next Great Bubble Boom...." by Harry S Dent. He's bullish about the SM between now and 2010, but not so much property (although no crash). After that all bets are off...

He predicts a correction in 2006, which we may already be seeing.

I've just 'Googled' Harry Dent and he's certainly not one to be followed. In March 2000 he apparantly predicted the DOW to reach 40,000 (yes, you read that right) by 2008; well there's still time I suppose!

I think Fred Harrison has and will be proved correct with his predictions.

Edited June 22, 2006 by shermanator

[Robert Federer]

The biggest bust of them all.

He likens the period 2000 to 2009 to the "Roaring Twenties" and the period beyond as being deflationary, not dissimilar to the 1930's.He sees Inflation falling into early 2006, (the book was written around 2003, I think) and slowly rising into 2009.Then the deflationary cycle begins for the next decade.

He claims that tecnology, financial services, health care and Asia will be the best sectors from 2005 to 2009.Long-term bonds, health care and Asia will be the best after 2009

The basis of his claims is demographics (Those darn baby boomers again) and the book contains enough graphs about ageing populations and spending cycles to keep DrB entertained for hours.

It's just a theory.

You say its just a theory, but do YOU believe it? If you do after reading his book, what action are you taking, if any?

I am a Sell-To-Renter who sold my studio flat in London last year, unconsciously or instinctively feeling the market was at a high. This was well before I read Harrison's book and found this website. The vast majority of the population don't know any of this stuff because the government and media keep them from theories like these.

Have you also done anything with this information before, if you believe it?

[Guest muttley]

You say its just a theory, but do YOU believe it? If you do after reading his book, what action are you taking, if any?

I am a Sell-To-Renter who sold my studio flat in London last year, unconsciously or instinctively feeling the market was at a high. This was well before I read Harrison's book and found this website. The vast majority of the population don't know any of this stuff because the government and media keep them from theories like these.

Have you also done anything with this information before, if you believe it?

Do I believe the theory?

Well, it wasn't a road to Damascus moment, but I did learn a lot from the book. There were a few things that concerned me. First, he was speaking from a US standpoint regarding the SM and real estate.Second, he really does predict that the Dow could hit 36,000 to 40,000 before 2009!! The last prediction seems a little bizarre to me ( equivalent to the FTSE reaching 20,000), but I suppose that's why he called it the "Bubble Boom".

Have I taken any action? I've decided to stay liquid for a while (I'm a STR too). Is that action or inaction?

I recommend the book as a good read, but I urge you to keep an open mind when reading it, as I would with any book. Otherwise you can find yourself simply seeking affirmation for your already held prejudices, rather than forming a rounded opinion.

Of course, the same goes for internet forums.

[Robert Federer]

Do I believe the theory?

Well, it wasn't a road to Damascus moment, but I did learn a lot from the book. There were a few things that concerned me. First, he was speaking from a US standpoint regarding the SM and real estate.Second, he really does predict that the Dow could hit 36,000 to 40,000 before 2009!! The last prediction seems a little bizarre to me ( equivalent to the FTSE reaching 20,000), but I suppose that's why he called it the "Bubble Boom".

Have I taken any action? I've decided to stay liquid for a while (I'm a STR too). Is that action or inaction?

I recommend the book as a good read, but I urge you to keep an open mind when reading it, as I would with any book. Otherwise you can find yourself simply seeking affirmation for your already held prejudices, rather than forming a rounded opinion.

Of course, the same goes for internet forums.

Yes, it is dangerous to get into a euphoria about any subject on a forum dedicated to the subject. Its like religion. I personally don't believe there is a god, but remain open to the possibility that there could be - something I'll only find out when I die.

Anyway, one of the problems with a lot of books on business or economies is that they are American. You have to continously reallign the argument to the Britsh economy. That's maybe one reason why I liked Fred Harrison's book so much. However, the Dow hitting 36,000? It would blow me away if this came true. I would bet against it, but have limited information to base this on.

I think you selling to rent is taking action. My parents still don't understand why I did this and want me to buy my own place again. People who do the opposite of the masses have been rewarded often in history.

I can't think of anything more just yet - so over to you!

[Guest muttley]

I think you selling to rent is taking action. My parents still don't understand why I did this and want me to buy my own place again. People who do the opposite of the masses have been rewarded often in history.

I can't think of anything more just yet - so over to you!

We didn't sell to rent, we sold to move up the ladder, but got gazumped. We decided to rent believing we would buy something within a few months. Two years on we're still looking.

I would happily rent for another few years to see if Mr Harrison and Mr Dent are right, but my wife is in the soft-landing camp, and I'm finding it difficult to find evidence to the contrary.

[othello]

Fred Harrison is dead wrong. There will never be a crash in house prices.

The STRs are just simply wasting their time waiting for a property crash that is never going to happen.

There, there just keep humming quietly to yourself while rocking gently backwards and forwards...