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Why Realistbears Ftse "predictions" Aren't


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Now Now boys....

..

Forums are about expressing opinions.... between the two of you, you have a clash of opinion. No need to turn into a slanging match!

TB

In fairness to RB... Its easy to point at charts in hindsight! His 'prediction' was real time.

TB

sorry teddyboy, but I suggest you follow a thread before you comment on it. Realistbears predictions are not predictions at all, something you would understand had you have bothered to read my posts. And we don't have a difference of opinion. There is right and there is wrong. I'm right, he is wrong, period. Check out the chart:

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sorry teddyboy, but I suggest you follow a thread before you comment on it. Realistbears predictions are not predictions at all, something you would understand had you have bothered to read my posts. And we don't have a difference of opinion. There is right and there is wrong. I'm right, he is wrong, period. Check out the chart:

Here's my prediction using the simple to follow "Europe = NY the day before" model.

Today's DOW so far:

DJ INDUSTR AVERAGE (DJI:^DJI)

Index Value: 10,995.49

Trade Time: 7:01PM

Change: 53.38 (0.49%)

Prev Close: 10,942.11

Open: 10,942.03

Day's Range: 10,938.42 - 11,029.83

52wk Range: 10,098.20 - 11,709.10

Volume: 177,785,056

If the DOW closes at around the same I would say that the FTSE will be okay tomorrow with a gain of around 20-30.

So what action do I take with my US issued but FTSE based mutual funds. None.

If the DOW was in the red 100 or more I would probably sell those same funds in anticipation of a bad day on the FTSE.

If I am right and my prediction is accurate by selling on the NY market today I save tomorrow's grief.

Is it getting clearer?

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"obfuscate "

Nice, what does it mean? :huh:

get a dictionary.

HOW AND, CRUCIALLY, WHY, REALISTBEAR'S PREDICTIONS WILL AND WOULD HAVE LOST YOU MONEY.

HIS MUTUAL FUND SPIN IS TOSH

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sorry teddyboy, but I suggest you follow a thread before you comment on it. Realistbears predictions are not predictions at all, something you would understand had you have bothered to read my posts. And we don't have a difference of opinion. There is right and there is wrong. I'm right, he is wrong, period. Check out the chart:

Like he said though - is there anybody who's likely to follow his "predictions"? Whether rb is right or wrong i don't know, and i couldn't comment as i don't really have a clue about shares. I can understand your point if people are taking his advice as gospel, and following it out - but how many are? Most people are on here, because they don't listen to people. I'm not taking sides as i don't know who's right, but you would have to be stupid to buy and sell shares from what someone on here has said.

btw - i don't think frozen out can afford a dictionary - he/she is saving up for a house!!

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Like he said though - is there anybody who's likely to follow his "predictions"? Whether rb is right or wrong i don't know, and i couldn't comment as i don't really have a clue about shares. I can understand your point if people are taking his advice as gospel, and following it out - but how many are? Most people are on here, because they don't listen to people. I'm not taking sides as i don't know who's right, but you would have to be stupid to buy and sell shares from what someone on here has said.

btw - i don't think frozen out can afford a dictionary - he/she is saving up for a house!!

pURRLEASE!!! If you have nothing to say, do the sensible thing for crissakes!

The point is not whether he is "right", it is that he is merely reporting history as prediction. Dow falls, fall is priced into ftse immediatelyy. Next morning ftse opens down, [email protected] No prediction necessary, merely a reporting of history. Why don't you just look at the attached chart before I run out of attachment space (~75 charts time I guess)

PS: cracking Joe Cole goal!

Edited by Sledgehead
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If you can predict with *any degree of accuracy whatsoever* what is going to happen on the FTSE tomorrow then you can make millions. The stock market is like a casino and you can bet on all sorts of things. You can bet on there being a big swing (regardless of direction, up or down) for example. And just like in a casino, a small advantage over the house could see you make a fortune! So Mr RB, if your system works then why not use it to make millions instead of just mitigating against risk?

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4. If NY had a bad day and you think Europe will follow the next day you sell your European funds before the close of business in NY on the day NY had its bad day. If Europe follows NY the next day as you think it will you will have avoided that day's losses as you sold the day before. You cannot wait until Europe opens to see which way the market goes as a sell order has to wait until after the European market has closed by which time it may be too late to avoid losses.

I worked in this industry for many years and your comments whilst holding some element of truth regarding trade execution timing are also misleading and a little confusing.

Traders will execute your sell order at the price of the market at that moment which will be indicated by the euro futures still trading and pricing those losses, they'll hedge trade your fund against the index unless its traded on a US exchange and still tradable, so even though you trade the day before your price will be indicative of the euro open the next day, and include the gap down at the open - otherwise it would be too easy and every one would run for the exit with said crystal ball. It's impossible and were it at all possible it would definately be illegal. Noone gets the gift of hindsight here. Your sell order may be the correct thing to do if the euro fund continues lower the next day after the open, but if europe gaps down then bounces you made the wrong decision for that day.

Your earlier comment regarding the hands of experts is quite amusing really, most hedge and mutual funds have an 'always long' policy and are usually the last to cover in a downturn, remember hedge funds losses circa 2000-03, but if you're in one who's losses can beat that of the broad markets then well done, youve done well!

Sledge, calm down please, i think its just a misunderstanding and stop using so much big vocab, I think most people here would appreciate laymans terms and not so much shouting :mellow:

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Sledge, calm down please, i think its just a misunderstanding and stop using so much big vocab, I think most people here would appreciate laymans terms and not so much shouting :mellow:

Larry, I wonder what language you would be using by now had you chosen to be the first to highlight the specious nature of Realistbears so-called predictions (and associated claimed use of illegal and impossible arbitraging). I explained in a perfectly civil manner why his so-called predictions were nothing of the sort in one of his daily "what's the ftse going to do tommorrow" type threads. In fact I did this maybe 4 times, explaining how markets are continuously arbitraged both in and out of hours. Instead of taking on board any of my points he merely reitterated his claim that, and I quote, "easy profits" could be made from the "markets predictability", and that the correlation of US and UK markets was something he had observed recently and that it showed investor fears. All attempts to get him to acknowledge that the relationship has been in place as long as the US have been our major trading partner, and that the relationship exists both in times of euphoria and panic, have fallen on deaf ears.

Still, you seem as though you should know a thing or two about markets. Nothing would please me better than for you to step up to the plate and get this poster, who portrays himself as some kind of expert, giving out advice every day, to admit he is plain wrong and unsuited to giving such advice. Feel up to it?

_________________________

PS : what is this "big vocab" I am using? The average educational attainment on this site used to be Bachelor's. Have standards really fallen so dramatically that I need stick to words of one syllable? I think you are in danger of insulting the forum!

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I worked in this industry for many years and your comments whilst holding some element of truth regarding trade execution timing are also misleading and a little confusing.

Traders will execute your sell order at the price of the market at that moment which will be indicated by the euro futures still trading and pricing those losses, they'll hedge trade your fund against the index unless its traded on a US exchange and still tradable, so even though you trade the day before your price will be indicative of the euro open the next day, and include the gap down at the open - otherwise it would be too easy and every one would run for the exit with said crystal ball. It's impossible and were it at all possible it would definately be illegal. Noone gets the gift of hindsight here. Your sell order may be the correct thing to do if the euro fund continues lower the next day after the open, but if europe gaps down then bounces you made the wrong decision for that day.

Your earlier comment regarding the hands of experts is quite amusing really, most hedge and mutual funds have an 'always long' policy and are usually the last to cover in a downturn, remember hedge funds losses circa 2000-03, but if you're in one who's losses can beat that of the broad markets then well done, youve done well!

Sledge, calm down please, i think its just a misunderstanding and stop using so much big vocab, I think most people here would appreciate laymans terms and not so much shouting :mellow:

You are right on the excecution of trades. However, my point was in relation to US based mutual funds for which sale orders are executed at the close of trading in NY. I understand the point about illegal trading and recall when a number of mutuals fund companies got nailed for after hours trading that involved, I believe, placing orders before the final NAV was set.

My point was a very simple one which some of the angrier members seemed to have missed. It was a very simple prediction based on the fact that the DOW has been setting the course for Europe recently with the added feature of sending Europe into the downside the following day, sometimes by as much as 50%.

My "system" is simply avoiding losses on my European Funds which are traded in the US by placing a sell order at the end of NY trading if the DOW finished down. If I waited until the next day the sell order would not be excuted until the close of business that day and after the losses had been incurred. What seems to be the angrier members problem is trying to read into the prediction some kind of fallacy or illegal action.

The bottom line in all of this is that the Bulls and Trolls have a difficult time with good bear news and think they can undermine the credibility of a poster by discovering something illegal or patently wrong with the opinion expressed. It is amazing how complicated a simple point can appear! It may have to do with the fact that they cannot see that I trade through a US based account and that NY closes several hours after London. The only advantage, if you can call it that, is that you can make a decision before NY closes about what is likely to happen in Europe the next day. If the DOW is headed for a bad day you sell that day and if it looks like a strong finish you buy (this is theoretical to an extnet as Fidelity do limit the number of trades in mutual funds to avoid flipping etc.).

Buying and selling mutual funds is perfectly legal. A judgment call on what is going to happen the next day based on what happens in the current day is perfectly valid. IN any event, if there was something illegal about buying and selling mutuals based on your judgment as to what is going to happen the next day I am sure the SEC would have stopped it by now. Its is simple speculation based on a trend. A child would even understand it. :)

Edited by Realistbear
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You are right on the excecution of trades. However, my point was in relation to US based mutual funds for which sale orders are executed at the close of trading in NY. I understand the point about illegal trading and recall when a number of mutuals fund companies got nailed for after hours trading that involved, I believe, placing orders before the final NAV was set.

My point was a very simple one which some of the angrier members seemed to have missed. It was a very simple prediction based on the fact that the DOW has been setting the course for Europe recently with the added feature of sending Europe into the downside the following day, sometimes by as much as 50%.

My "system" is simply avoiding losses on my European Funds which are traded in the US by placing a sell order at the end of NY trading if the DOW finished down. If I waited until the next day the sell order would not be excuted until the close of business that day and after the losses had been incurred. What seems to be the angrier members problem is trying to read into the prediction some kind of fallacy or illegal action.

The bottom line in all of this is that the Bulls and Trolls have a difficult time with good bear news and think they can undermine the credibility of a poster by discovering something illegal or patently wrong with the opinion expressed. It is amazing how complicated a simple point can appear! It may have to do with the fact that they cannot see that I trade through a US based account and that NY closes several hours after London. The only advantage, if you can call it that, is that you can make a decision before NY closes about what is likely to happen in Europe the next day. If the DOW is headed for a bad day you sell that day and if it looks like a strong finish you buy (this is theoretical to an extnet as Fidelity do limit the number of trades in mutual funds to avoid flipping etc.).

Buying and selling mutual funds is perfectly legal. A judgment call on what is going to happen the next day based on what happens in the current day is perfectly valid. IN any event, if there was something illegal about buying and selling mutuals based on your judgment as to what is going to happen the next day I am sure the SEC would have stopped it by now. Its is simple speculation based on a trend. A child would even understand it. :)

C'mon then Larry: what do you think of that load of tosh, eh?

Love this bit : "... sending Europe into the downside the following day, sometimes by as much as 50%."

Dare you to go thru that lot line by line. Four replies time and you'll be my clone. Bet you don't have the stammina for this guy.

I do.

HERE IS HOW A MEMBER OF REALISTBEAR'S CONGREGATION WOULD HAVE FAIRED FROM FOLLOWING HIS SO-CALLED PREDICTIONS, WHICH ARE NO MORE THAT A STATEMENT OF WHAT HAS ALREADY HAPPENED:

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pURRLEASE!!! If you have nothing to say, do the sensible thing for crissakes!

The point is not whether he is "right", it is that he is merely reporting history as prediction. Dow falls, fall is priced into ftse immediatelyy. Next morning ftse opens down, [email protected] No prediction necessary, merely a reporting of history. Why don't you just look at the attached chart before I run out of attachment space (~75 charts time I guess)

PS: cracking Joe Cole goal!

It is not history to make a decision today on what is going to happen tomorrow. History will tell yoou if your call was good or bad. All I have been pointing out is the predictable nature of the market which you seem to agree with. There is nothing wrong with buying and selling based on what is likely to happen tomorrow. Its called investing. No one knows for sure what the markets will do tomorrow. But you can protect yourself against losses if you sell based on the pattern that when the DOW drops Europe will follow. And recently the Europe has been magnifying NY's losses by a considerable margin.

When you buy and sell mutual funds there cannot be any illegal activity or Fidleity would not execute the orders. As I said, the problem with mutuals is that the number of trades within a certain length of time is restricted as they are not meant to be day traded like stocks. If all the fund holders, and there can be tens of thousands of them, began trading based on the DOW-FTSE relationship the fees would be much higher than the .94% many of Fidelity fund managers charge for their managment of the fund.

No one is suggesting that the NY close does not take into account movements and likely scenarios in the future. All I have been saying is that you can exercise a judgment call based on the trend and buy and sell accordingly. When I actually did this before the correction became serious I looked at the carnage in NY and sold most of my European Funds based on the DOWs first serious drop. Sure enough the next day was carnage X2 in Europe but I had already locked the NAV for my European funds the day before when NY closed. The NAV is set very soon after the closing bell in NY according to my Fidelity Screen and once the price is set it cannot be changed until after the next day's trading. There is nothing magic in this and I could have lost out if Europe did not follow the DOW and went up.

Where illegal activity comes in is placing orders after the closing bell but before the NAV is set. Only managers can do this and I believe most of them are no longer licensed by the SEC.

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It is not history to make a decision today on what is going to happen tomorrow. History will tell yoou if your call was good or bad. All I have been pointing out is the predictable nature of the market which you seem to agree with. There is nothing wrong with buying and selling based on what is likely to happen tomorrow. Its called investing. No one knows for sure what the markets will do tomorrow. But you can protect yourself against losses if you sell based on the pattern that when the DOW drops Europe will follow. And recently the Europe has been magnifying NY's losses by a considerable margin.

When you buy and sell mutual funds there cannot be any illegal activity or Fidleity would not execute the orders. As I said, the problem with mutuals is that the number of trades within a certain length of time is restricted as they are not meant to be day traded like stocks. If all the fund holders, and there can be tens of thousands of them, began trading based on the DOW-FTSE relationship the fees would be much higher than the .94% many of Fidelity fund managers charge for their managment of the fund.

No one is suggesting that the NY close does not take into account movements and likely scenarios in the future. All I have been saying is that you can exercise a judgment call based on the trend and buy and sell accordingly. When I actually did this before the correction became serious I looked at the carnage in NY and sold most of my European Funds based on the DOWs first serious drop. Sure enough the next day was carnage X2 in Europe but I had already locked the NAV for my European funds the day before when NY closed. The NAV is set very soon after the closing bell in NY according to my Fidelity Screen and once the price is set it cannot be changed until after the next day's trading. There is nothing magic in this and I could have lost out if Europe did not follow the DOW and went up.

Where illegal activity comes in is placing orders after the closing bell but before the NAV is set. Only managers can do this and I believe most of them are no longer licensed by the SEC.

HERE IS HOW REALISTBREARS "PREDICTIVE MODEL" REALLY WORKS (IE IT DOESN'T, BECAUSE IT IS NOT PREDICTION AT ALL):

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HERE IS HOW REALISTBREARS "PREDICTIVE MODEL" REALLY WORKS (IE IT DOESN'T, BECAUSE IT IS NOT PREDICTION AT ALL):

If you make a decison on Thurday to sell a fund based on how the DOW closes on Thursday because you feel Friday will be bad you are making a prediction about Friday's market. A decision made today about what you think is going to happen tomorrow is a prediction. What else is it?

The predictive model works if what happens Friday is what you expected when you made your decision Thursday.

If there is a trading pattern of the DOW leading Europe then you are more likely to call the market correctly if you follow the pattern. If you are wrong you lose. If you are right you win. Its how people make money on the markets--placing a bet on what they think is going to happen in the future basd on past results. I think a more complicated way of doing this is to follow charts/stocastics rather than fundamentals such as a trading pattern you think is based on fear for example.

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Love this bit : "... sending Europe into the downside the following day, sometimes by as much as 50%."

I'd like an example of this, it seems a little exagerated if using index pricing, do you mean 50% of a daily point move of the dow compaired to ftse, a little confusing again?

Although the ftse does mirror the dow as most euro indices do (sneezes, cold catching yawn cliche) there can be times when the differential can widen and shorten, try trading the dow/ftse differential to see my point, or for a more volatile ride the dax/ftse (200 pts from par, yet can stretch either side 500/600 points) I haven't been watching the differentials so don't know if this is true or if this is even what RB means... :unsure:

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I'd like an example of this, it seems a little exagerated if using index pricing, do you mean 50% of a daily point move of the dow compaired to ftse, a little confusing again?

Although the ftse does mirror the dow as most euro indices do (sneezes, cold catching yawn cliche) there can be times when the differential can widen and shorten, try trading the dow/ftse differential to see my point, or for a more volatile ride the dax/ftse (200 pts from par, yet can stretch either side 500/600 points) I haven't been watching the differentials so don't know if this is true or if this is even what RB means... :unsure:

You are on the right track. There have been many days recently where the FTSE fell by around 2% after the DOW had dropped 1%. The sneeze-cold cliche sums it up and recently this has been the case. Some say it was a flight to safety based on a perception that the US is a safe haven etc.

Whatever the actual differentials were, the only point I have been trying to make is that the markets are predictive and have been especially so recently with the DOW-FTSE relationship. By basing a decision on the NY market to buy or sell European funds you can save yourself some grief or make money by placing an order in NY before the closing bell rather than wait until the close of trading the next day by which time it will be too late if Europe has a bad day. As you know, mutuals are set at the end of the day so you cannot sell on the next morning as soon as trading in Europe begins--you have to wait until NY closes which will, of course, be about 5 hours after the closing bell in Europe. Al of this is based on the trader owning mutuals in the US and placing trades in that country.

Edited by Realistbear
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If you make a decison on Thurday to sell a fund based on how the DOW closes on Thursday because you feel Friday will be bad you are making a prediction about Friday's market. A decision made today about what you think is going to happen tomorrow is a prediction. What else is it?

The predictive model works if what happens Friday is what you expected when you made your decision Thursday.

If there is a trading pattern of the DOW leading Europe then you are more likely to call the market correctly if you follow the pattern. If you are wrong you lose. If you are right you win. Its how people make money on the markets--placing a bet on what they think is going to happen in the future basd on past results. I think a more complicated way of doing this is to follow charts/stocastics rather than fundamentals such as a trading pattern you think is based on fear for example.

THIS IS RUBBISH. WANT PROOF. CHECK OUT THE CHART BELOW. READ IT AND WEEP - WITH LAUGHTER.

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THIS IS RUBBISH. WANT PROOF. CHECK OUT THE CHART BELOW. READ IT AND WEEP - WITH LAUGHTER.

How can it be rubbish? What is rubbish? Your chart bears no relationship to simple trading based on what is likly to happen. There are no "shorts" or "longs" with mutual funds as they are not individual stocks. There is a huge difference between the two and I think this is where you are getting confused.

A chart can't explain a simple judgment call to buy or sell a fund based on how the DOW closes.

If the DOW falls you simply place a sell order in relation to your European fund. If the DOW rises you place a buy order.

The system works all the time the DOW-FTSE behaves in a follow the leader pattern. All trends eventually break down which is why the system cannot work all the time. Its like house prices, they will eventually go down and for a market timer its a judgment call based on a prediction. If your timing is good you win. If it isn't you lose. What could possibly be simpler than that?

Edited by Realistbear
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My "system" is simply avoiding losses on my European Funds which are traded in the US by placing a sell order at the end of NY trading if the DOW finished down. If I waited until the next day the sell order would not be excuted until the close of business that day and after the losses had been incurred. What seems to be the angrier members problem is trying to read into the prediction some kind of fallacy or illegal action.

If your making money then good for you, systems work... then they don't, imo the only way to trade and win is to read charts correctly, be disciplined with stop losses and understand market psycology but i recon only a few can manage this consistently as most allow greed to take over and don't recognise when this happens, its human nature.

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If your making money then good for you, systems work... then they don't, imo the only way to trade and win is to read charts correctly, be disciplined with stop losses and understand market psycology but i recon only a few can manage this consistently as most allow greed to take over and don't recognise when this happens, its human nature.

Whooah! That told him! ( NOT :(:P )

Care to comment on any of this:

I have to admit though, you could make a lot of money on the predicatbility of the markets right now. For example, we can all expect a very unpleasant day on the FTSE and DOW Monday

FTSE MONDAY CLOSE, +0.5%

I have to admit though, you could make a lot of money on the predicatbility of the markets right now

..... it is so easy to predict exactly what the FTSE will do every day!

How could you make money? Perhaps shorting the entire FTSE if the DOW is going to have a bad day.

... but you never say HOW you can tell whether the Dow is GOING to have a bad day, in fact your methods of so-say making a profit, don't rely on predicting what the Dow is GOING to do, but what it has ALREADY DONE.

Well, let's see, I predict that the FTSE will have a rough day tomorrow. Why? Because the DOW is having a rough day so far today and the downslide didn't get going until after the FTSE closed. .....

I have to admit though, you could make a lot of money on the predicatbility of the markets right now.

I am sure some are making money out of the market locked into such a pattern where the FTSE follows the DOW on the morning after the DOW closes. I have been watching it do this very thing almost every day for a few weeks. I did use the predictablility to time some sells orders as the disasters late in the day on the DOW led me to unload my European Mutual Funds that day rather than wait for the next day in Europe where, sure enough, carnage followed.

NOW SEE HOW HIS RHETORIC MATCHES UP WITH WHAT ACTUALLY HAPPENS IN MARKETS.

Attached is a jpg of the S&P500 and FTSE minute charts. See how the ftse, as traded on spread betting and after hours exchanges MIRRORS THE S&P500 (a broad measure of US stocks).

Note how Realistbear's so-called edge on the market - its predictability, is TOTALLY unusable AND YET HE CLAIMS ONE COULD MAKE EASY PROFITS from such an "understanding", indeed he CLAIMS TO HAVE MADE SHREWD MARKET MOVES BASED ON THIS PRINCIPLE.

Check it out and smell the ********.

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The system works all the time the DOW-FTSE behaves in a follow the leader pattern. All trends eventually break down which is why the system cannot work all the time. Its like house prices, they will eventually go down and for a market timer its a judgment call based on a prediction. If your timing is good you win. If it isn't you lose. What could possibly be simpler than that?

Just read this - if your system is working based on dow/ftse, you should keep an eye the differential price, if you have an account with any spreadbet co, you'll get price/chart for free, you should be able to notice when the differential changes and check against your system to see it makes a difference

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If your making money then good for you, systems work... then they don't, imo the only way to trade and win is to read charts correctly, be disciplined with stop losses and understand market psycology but i recon only a few can manage this consistently as most allow greed to take over and don't recognise when this happens, its human nature.

I agree. My normal trading pattern is to buy and hold mutual funds with a diversified portfolio. I have very few individual stocks and prefer to have my investments managed by a good fund manager and have been satisfied over the years with the results.

The recent bout of stock market corrections caused me to liquidate about 80% of my mutual funds to go to cash as I am not willing to risk another Dot.com scenario where it takes many years to get back the money lost over the course of a few down weeks.

Not only that, most of the invesment was house money from my STM (sold to move fund) and was growing by around 12-16% a year until things went bad a few weeks ago. As I plan to buy a house after the coming crash I want to make sure it doesn't dissappear down the SM blackhole!

IN the meantime, I hope SH can now see that the "system" of trading, theoretical as it is due to trading restrictions on mutual funds, is nothing more than a simple system of buying and selling based on the follow the leader pattern we have been seeing of late between the DOW and Europe. I have only used it to sell and it has worked quite well as a bad day on the DOW was my trigger to unload my European funds. By doing so I saved myself a lot of financial grief.

IMO, it is not safe to return to the markets yet as the BoJ are still playing shall we/shan't we with IR. They seem to have made up their minds today but with Japan who knows?

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