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Golden Shower

Another Record Month For Lending

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Found this on TMF courtesy of KoN

Record month for lending - BSA

Looking like we may have more HPI in the pipeline.

Just in time for the IR hikes from the creditor that has made all the inflation in house prices possible: Japan! Better re-finance quick before the rates go up.

More borrowing to pay council tax and that shiny new SUV. More MEW for the summer holidays and that crappy LCD that takes picture quality back 20 years!

According to the VI article there is more spending in the pipeline but not necessarily to inflate house prices:

On the savings side, Mr Coles said: "Savings into building societies were relatively low in May, compared to previous months. This could be due to people already having put some money away in 2006; the first four months of the year saw record inflows.
The upturn in consumer spending may also be having an impact, as the latest government figures show, May retail sales value were up 3% year on year."

More Chinese tat to throw the balance of trade even more in the red.

Edited by Realistbear

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This is yet another daily dose of dire news. It looks like there is no limit to house prices and peoples willingness to jump in.

Edited by simon99

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This is yet another daily dose of dire news. It looks like there is no limit to house prices and peoples willingness to jump in.

Yes, I am afraid there are still plenty of fools where I am. I work in a large engineering company, so although engineers are stinkingly underpaid IMO, the salaries here are still decent enough to allow the people around my (FTB) age (30ish) to get a mortgage if they want...

...and apparently they do want. I know of several people my age who are climbing onto the first rung at the moment - including a couple of friends who came round last night so I could witness their mortgage agreement. These people are buying in right at the top of the bubble...they are intelligent, but most importantly DON'T spend time obsessing about the market (like we do!). This, coupled with a naeive faith in the media, and there you have it - a recipe for disaster.

IMO, contrary to what many on here say, sentiment is NOT what will kill this monster - cold hard numbers will.

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Yes, I am afraid there are still plenty of fools where I am. I work in a large engineering company, so although engineers are stinkingly underpaid IMO, the salaries here are still decent enough to allow the people around my (FTB) age (30ish) to get a mortgage if they want...

...and apparently they do want. I know of several people my age who are climbing onto the first rung at the moment - including a couple of friends who came round last night so I could witness their mortgage agreement. These people are buying in right at the top of the bubble...they are intelligent, but most importantly DON'T spend time obsessing about the market (like we do!). This, coupled with a naeive faith in the media, and there you have it - a recipe for disaster.

IMO, contrary to what many on here say, sentiment is NOT what will kill this monster - cold hard numbers will.

These figures are bad news.

Can't RealistBear post us some more quarterly price data, to remind us that in fact, prices are crashing by 20% as we speak?

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Can't RealistBear post us some more quarterly price data, to remind us that in fact, prices are crashing by 20% as we speak?

gawd not again

i'm getting RSI from scrolling past that post all the time :P

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These figures are bad news.

Can't RealistBear post us some more quarterly price data, to remind us that in fact, prices are crashing by 20% as we speak?

>>The record lending figure for a single month is £28.9bn, recorded in July 2004.

:lol::lol: , need to hear anything more?

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This is exactly what happened before the last round of interest rate rises. All the dumbos out there try to get a good fixed rate before interest rates go up but fail to see the link between falling house prices and rising interest rates.

Derrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrr :lol:

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This is exactly what happened before the last round of interest rate rises. All the dumbos out there try to get a good fixed rate before interest rates go up but fail to see the link between falling house prices and rising interest rates.

Derrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrr :lol:

I think this has been discussed here quite a few times that the mortagage lending is usually highest at the top when things start going slow down. This housing market is following the pattern, mini boom or whatever caused by Aug rate cut is over, as simple as that.

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This usually translates into higher house prices in a couple of months time :(

Its also the 2nd highest on record!!

Hosue prices are going up, its a fact :(

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These figures are bad news.

Can't RealistBear post us some more quarterly price data, to remind us that in fact, prices are crashing by 20% as we speak?

As requested, here are the Quarterly figures from across the country. Many areas are down 5% or more for the last Q. If the trend continues you will have your 20% down. A couple of areas are down by over 10% so they may have their crash in 6 months (assuming 20% is the "crash point"). And don't forget that a crash does not happen in a day but can take a year, or less, depending how high IR have to go after Japan starts to tighten:

Enjoy:

Northumberland £149,225 -8.8%

Cumbria £143,851 -1.6%

Tyne And Wear £132,526 -0.3%

Stockton-On-Tees £128,643 -5.0%

Darlington £125,556 -5.6%

Durham £114,329 -4.3%

Redcar And Cleveland £109,289 -11.2%

Middlesbrough £108,982 4.7%

Hartlepool £98,770 -5.2%

East Riding Of Yorkshire £154,431 -4.5%

West Yorkshire £138,242 -1.1%

South Yorkshire £126,326 -1.4%

North Lincolnshire £122,869 -2.7%

North East Lincolnshire £102,179 -1.9%

Rutland £228,672 -7.7%

Leicestershire £170,145 -3.5%

Northamptonshire £158,537 -3.5%

Lincolnshire £147,659 -1.9%

Derbyshire £147,537 -3.5%

Nottinghamshire £146,871 -2.0%

City Of Derby £137,082 -0.3%

Leicester £134,130 0.3%

City Of Nottingham £119,797 -5.2%

Worcestershire £184,936 -3.3%

Warwickshire £184,860 -3.4%

Shropshire £184,664 -3.1%

Staffordshire £161,232 -0.1%

West Midlands £146,903 0.3%

Wrekin £140,819 1.2%

Stoke-On-Trent £89,910 -5.6%

Cheshire £185,036 -1.6%

Warrington £156,929 -4.5%

Greater Manchester £134,935 -2.1%

Merseyside £132,854 0.3%

Lancashire £128,806 -1.9%

Halton £127,289 -5.3%

Blackpool £119,112 2.8%

Blackburn With Darwen £98,762 -2.1%

Moray 101,031 -6.1%

Clackmannanshire 100,282 -6.8%

North Ayrshire 98,127 -1.9%

North Lanarkshire 96,363 1.7%

East Ayrshire 92,883 -10.3%

Orkney Islands 88,463 -10.3%

West Dunbartonshire 88,299 -7.4%

Shetland Islands 83,663 4.4%

Eilean Siar 75,640 -8.2%

Edinburgh, City Of 176,526 1.1%

East Renfrewshire 168,132 -8.8%

East Dunbartonshire 160,331 -8.6%

East Lothian 152,826 -7.5%

Stirling 144,367 -4.0%

Midlothian 134,238 -0.5%

Scottish Borders 130,622 -7.9%

Aberdeenshire 127,195 -3.4%

Highland 125,711 -3.4%

Glasgow City 124,370 -0.6%

Argyll And Bute 119,923 -5.9%

Isle Of Anglesey £145,033 -12.2%

Newport £144,790 -5.0%

Flintshire £142,754 -4.8%

Denbighshire £140,981 -1.9%

Swansea £139,153 -1.1%

Carmarthenshire £137,252 0.1%

Bridgend £133,572 -1.7%

Torfaen £120,546 -0.4%

Caerphilly £115,784 -1.5%

Neath Port Talbot £102,936 -2.6%

Rhondda Cynon Taff £93,453 -2.7%

Merthyr Tydfil £89,920 -4.8%

Blaenau Gwent £82,491 -7.4

Dorset £226,010 -0.5%

Devon £212,600 -0.3%

Wiltshire £209,024 -3.5%

Cornwall £203,006 -2.5%

Bournemouth £202,293 2.2%

Gloucestershire £201,799 -0.5%

North Somerset £185,780 -4.6%

Somerset £183,850 -1.5%

South Gloucestershire £182,959 -2.5%

City Of Bristol £178,116 0.6% -0.9%

Torbay £174,208 -2.0%

Swindon £155,868 -2.3%

Brighton And Hove £222,241 0.6%

West Sussex £221,415 -2.2%

Essex £212,460 -0.9%

Kent £206,628 -0.4%

East Sussex £198,541 -3.0%

Reading £196,094 -2.0%

Isle Of Wight £181,138 -0.6%

Milton Keynes £175,337 -0.6%

Thurrock £169,523 -0.6% -1.5%

Southampton £161,716 -1.3%

Portsmouth £154,803 0.6%

Medway £154,231 -2.1%

I am in the Stratford area and we are more than one third of the way toward a crash:

Stratford-On-Avon £328,827 -8.2% -8.8% 162

Warwick £321,358 -7.4% -7.0% 129

North Warwickshire £264,202 -3.4% -8.9% 55

Rugby £261,763 -6.7% -8.3% 118

Sources:

England and Wales

Figures for England and Wales are for the period January to March 2006.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/shared/spl/hi/in_d.../county98.stm?d

>>The record lending figure for a single month is £28.9bn, recorded in July 2004.

:lol::lol: , need to hear anything more?

28.9 billion 2 years ago? That suggests that this May's figure was miniscule in comparison? Surely not. How come the news does not place the figures in this context?

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What percentage of these loans are FTBs though (don't quote the 12.5% from NAEA, that's just people looking)? Here in Hove I have seen For Sale boards up for a year, nearly all converted to Sold in April/May, most of these have now converted to 'To Let'. How much of this borrowing is the BTL last gasp propping up the last days of the market? I bet a good half of the flats sold around here are BTL. These people are going to be so screwed in two years time; the fall out will make the dotcom implosion look benign as these amateur muppets will have debts to service for the rest of their lives, especially if they MEWED to get the deposit.

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Poo. Let's hope the BOE take this news on board when considering IR rates next month.

Additionally, and may be me creating a reason to suit us, perhaps it is a suckers rally based upon a few people giving in (like me tho we haven't found a place we want to buy yet) and buying on lower rate deals.

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If the economy is in that rude health, then Im sure the usuals VIs wont need to start bleating for rate-cuts once BoE hike IRs a few times

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This usually translates into higher house prices in a couple of months time :(

Its also the 2nd highest on record!!

Hosue prices are going up, its a fact :(

Must go out and buy me one right now before they shoot up in price!

Can you replace your sad faces with smilies as I suspect you're a VI trying to come across as an FTB

:ph34r:

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The green light has been switched on - interest rates to start rising either next month or the month after...

My ar$e they are. Wage inflation is still shown to be tame, I think we'll see a few more months before the BoE hike upwards.

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This confirms everything i have been saying, commonsence tells me that this housing boom should be turning into one big mess, but it's not, infact the opposite.

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  • 301 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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