Jump to content
House Price Crash Forum
Sign in to follow this  
Without_a_Paddle

House Price Crash Only 1 In 20 Chance

Recommended Posts

Read it and Weep....

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/main.jhtm.../ixcitytop.html

Homeowners can breathe a sigh of relief - the UK housing market is now less likely to crash than most other Western countries, according to authoritative new research.

The probability of a house price correction in Britain is now barely one-in-twenty, even if the Bank of England hikes up interest rates in the coming years.

However, some other countries such as the US, Spain, France and Denmark are perilously close to a crash.

The research, from the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development, shows how the recent "soft landing" engineered by the Bank of England has dramatically reduced the danger of a potential crash.

cnhouse19.gif

However, if house prices keep rising at their recent annual rate of around 5pc, there is only a 5.4pc chance of a crash - even if the MPC raises rates to 5.5pc.

The UK property market's relative health becomes apparent when compared with its international counterparts.

Things might look different in a few years (after the next General Election?) but it looks like a HPC is on hold for some time yet...

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Its odd that the OECD do not think prices are going to fall much in the UK when the Land Registry already shows prices dropping accross the UK? Many places have seen falls in excess of 5% in the last quarter alone. Perhaps the OECD and Gordon would like the people to feel good about their house prices and not panic:

Northumberland £149,225 -8.8%

Cumbria £143,851 -1.6%

Tyne And Wear £132,526 -0.3%

Stockton-On-Tees £128,643 -5.0%

Darlington £125,556 -5.6%

Durham £114,329 -4.3%

Redcar And Cleveland £109,289 -11.2%

Middlesbrough £108,982 4.7%

Hartlepool £98,770 -5.2%

East Riding Of Yorkshire £154,431 -4.5%

West Yorkshire £138,242 -1.1%

South Yorkshire £126,326 -1.4%

North Lincolnshire £122,869 -2.7%

North East Lincolnshire £102,179 -1.9%

Rutland £228,672 -7.7%

Leicestershire £170,145 -3.5%

Northamptonshire £158,537 -3.5%

Lincolnshire £147,659 -1.9%

Derbyshire £147,537 -3.5%

Nottinghamshire £146,871 -2.0%

City Of Derby £137,082 -0.3%

Leicester £134,130 0.3%

City Of Nottingham £119,797 -5.2%

Worcestershire £184,936 -3.3%

Warwickshire £184,860 -3.4%

Shropshire £184,664 -3.1%

Staffordshire £161,232 -0.1%

West Midlands £146,903 0.3%

Wrekin £140,819 1.2%

Stoke-On-Trent £89,910 -5.6%

Cheshire £185,036 -1.6%

Warrington £156,929 -4.5%

Greater Manchester £134,935 -2.1%

Merseyside £132,854 0.3%

Lancashire £128,806 -1.9%

Halton £127,289 -5.3%

Blackpool £119,112 2.8%

Blackburn With Darwen £98,762 -2.1%

Moray 101,031 -6.1%

Clackmannanshire 100,282 -6.8%

North Ayrshire 98,127 -1.9%

North Lanarkshire 96,363 1.7%

East Ayrshire 92,883 -10.3%

Orkney Islands 88,463 -10.3%

West Dunbartonshire 88,299 -7.4%

Shetland Islands 83,663 4.4%

Eilean Siar 75,640 -8.2%

Edinburgh, City Of 176,526 1.1%

East Renfrewshire 168,132 -8.8%

East Dunbartonshire 160,331 -8.6%

East Lothian 152,826 -7.5%

Stirling 144,367 -4.0%

Midlothian 134,238 -0.5%

Scottish Borders 130,622 -7.9%

Aberdeenshire 127,195 -3.4%

Highland 125,711 -3.4%

Glasgow City 124,370 -0.6%

Argyll And Bute 119,923 -5.9%

Isle Of Anglesey £145,033 -12.2%

Newport £144,790 -5.0%

Flintshire £142,754 -4.8%

Denbighshire £140,981 -1.9%

Swansea £139,153 -1.1%

Carmarthenshire £137,252 0.1%

Bridgend £133,572 -1.7%

Torfaen £120,546 -0.4%

Caerphilly £115,784 -1.5%

Neath Port Talbot £102,936 -2.6%

Rhondda Cynon Taff £93,453 -2.7%

Merthyr Tydfil £89,920 -4.8%

Blaenau Gwent £82,491 -7.4

Dorset £226,010 -0.5%

Devon £212,600 -0.3%

Wiltshire £209,024 -3.5%

Cornwall £203,006 -2.5%

Bournemouth £202,293 2.2%

Gloucestershire £201,799 -0.5%

North Somerset £185,780 -4.6%

Somerset £183,850 -1.5%

South Gloucestershire £182,959 -2.5%

City Of Bristol £178,116 0.6% -0.9%

Torbay £174,208 -2.0%

Swindon £155,868 -2.3%

Brighton And Hove £222,241 0.6%

West Sussex £221,415 -2.2%

Essex £212,460 -0.9%

Kent £206,628 -0.4%

East Sussex £198,541 -3.0%

Reading £196,094 -2.0%

Isle Of Wight £181,138 -0.6%

Milton Keynes £175,337 -0.6%

Thurrock £169,523 -0.6% -1.5%

Southampton £161,716 -1.3%

Portsmouth £154,803 0.6%

Medway £154,231 -2.1%

Some Bulls might read these and weep. :)

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Using complex economic tools, the Paris-based OECD discovered that the probability of house prices "peaking", or slumping, is currently only 4.6pc.

Complex tools but no common sense.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Complex tools but no common sense.

Crisis, what crisis?

Read my lips, there will be no tax increases.

I will end the boom and bust cycle.

There will be peace in our time.

This ship is unsinkable.

The chances of a HPC are only 1 in 20.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Read it and Weep....

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/main.jhtm.../ixcitytop.html

cnhouse19.gif

Things might look different in a few years (after the next General Election?) but it looks like a HPC is on hold for some time yet...

I miss read that title at first - I thought it was suggesting that there was only a 1 in 20 chance of anyone being able to afford to buy their own home....

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Its odd that the OECD do not think prices are going to fall much in the UK when the Land Registry already shows prices dropping accross the UK? Many places have seen falls in excess of 5% in the last quarter alone. Perhaps the OECD and Gordon would like the people to feel good about their house prices and not panic:

Northumberland £149,225 -8.8%

Cumbria £143,851 -1.6%

Tyne And Wear £132,526 -0.3%

Stockton-On-Tees £128,643 -5.0%

Darlington £125,556 -5.6%

Durham £114,329 -4.3%

Redcar And Cleveland £109,289 -11.2%

Middlesbrough £108,982 4.7%

Hartlepool £98,770 -5.2%

East Riding Of Yorkshire £154,431 -4.5%

West Yorkshire £138,242 -1.1%

South Yorkshire £126,326 -1.4%

North Lincolnshire £122,869 -2.7%

North East Lincolnshire £102,179 -1.9%

Rutland £228,672 -7.7%

Leicestershire £170,145 -3.5%

Northamptonshire £158,537 -3.5%

Lincolnshire £147,659 -1.9%

Derbyshire £147,537 -3.5%

Nottinghamshire £146,871 -2.0%

City Of Derby £137,082 -0.3%

Leicester £134,130 0.3%

City Of Nottingham £119,797 -5.2%

Worcestershire £184,936 -3.3%

Warwickshire £184,860 -3.4%

Shropshire £184,664 -3.1%

Staffordshire £161,232 -0.1%

West Midlands £146,903 0.3%

Wrekin £140,819 1.2%

Stoke-On-Trent £89,910 -5.6%

Cheshire £185,036 -1.6%

Warrington £156,929 -4.5%

Greater Manchester £134,935 -2.1%

Merseyside £132,854 0.3%

Lancashire £128,806 -1.9%

Halton £127,289 -5.3%

Blackpool £119,112 2.8%

Blackburn With Darwen £98,762 -2.1%

Moray 101,031 -6.1%

Clackmannanshire 100,282 -6.8%

North Ayrshire 98,127 -1.9%

North Lanarkshire 96,363 1.7%

East Ayrshire 92,883 -10.3%

Orkney Islands 88,463 -10.3%

West Dunbartonshire 88,299 -7.4%

Shetland Islands 83,663 4.4%

Eilean Siar 75,640 -8.2%

Edinburgh, City Of 176,526 1.1%

East Renfrewshire 168,132 -8.8%

East Dunbartonshire 160,331 -8.6%

East Lothian 152,826 -7.5%

Stirling 144,367 -4.0%

Midlothian 134,238 -0.5%

Scottish Borders 130,622 -7.9%

Aberdeenshire 127,195 -3.4%

Highland 125,711 -3.4%

Glasgow City 124,370 -0.6%

Argyll And Bute 119,923 -5.9%

Isle Of Anglesey £145,033 -12.2%

Newport £144,790 -5.0%

Flintshire £142,754 -4.8%

Denbighshire £140,981 -1.9%

Swansea £139,153 -1.1%

Carmarthenshire £137,252 0.1%

Bridgend £133,572 -1.7%

Torfaen £120,546 -0.4%

Caerphilly £115,784 -1.5%

Neath Port Talbot £102,936 -2.6%

Rhondda Cynon Taff £93,453 -2.7%

Merthyr Tydfil £89,920 -4.8%

Blaenau Gwent £82,491 -7.4

Dorset £226,010 -0.5%

Devon £212,600 -0.3%

Wiltshire £209,024 -3.5%

Cornwall £203,006 -2.5%

Bournemouth £202,293 2.2%

Gloucestershire £201,799 -0.5%

North Somerset £185,780 -4.6%

Somerset £183,850 -1.5%

South Gloucestershire £182,959 -2.5%

City Of Bristol £178,116 0.6% -0.9%

Torbay £174,208 -2.0%

Swindon £155,868 -2.3%

Brighton And Hove £222,241 0.6%

West Sussex £221,415 -2.2%

Essex £212,460 -0.9%

Kent £206,628 -0.4%

East Sussex £198,541 -3.0%

Reading £196,094 -2.0%

Isle Of Wight £181,138 -0.6%

Milton Keynes £175,337 -0.6%

Thurrock £169,523 -0.6% -1.5%

Southampton £161,716 -1.3%

Portsmouth £154,803 0.6%

Medway £154,231 -2.1%

Some Bulls might read these and weep. :)

Give up RB. These quarterly stats tell us nothing. Samples are too small, and they're not mix or volume adjusted.

Should we believe them, multimply them up by 4 and then believe we are in the middle of a 20% crash? Do you really, really believe that?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I have skimmed through the OECD report that predicts a 5% chance of a crash in the UK. The model is based on historical trends across Europe and is so simplistic as to be meaningless in my opinion. It only considers 3 coefficients:

the nominal long-term interest rate

the real house price gap

and the two quarter moving average of the rate of change in real house prices

I think it misses three crucial points:

Lending criteria (multiples of salary earnings)

Affordability (ration of house prices to earnings)

Market composition (proportion of BTLs)

There are many other factors not considered either. :lol:

If you want to read it see:

http://www.olis.oecd.org/olis/2006doc.nsf/...ECO-WKP(2006)16

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Im afraid the VI's are winning the war by a landslide, barely a week has gone by in the last 5 years when there hasn't been a national article on booming prices, no crash, etc etc.

We just have to accept that we're the lost generation, sacrificed for people who borrow too much. It's time for me to throw in the towel, everyone is against affordable housing, from government to the media to the sheeple.

Edited by simon99

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Im afraid the VI's are winning the war by a landslide, barely a week has gone by in the last 5 years when there hasn't been a national article on booming prices, no crash, etc etc.

We just have to accept that we're the lost generation, sacrificed for people who borrow too much. It's time for me to throw in the towel, everyone is against affordable housing, from government to the media to the sheeple.

The VIs may be wining a propaganda war of sorts as there is no voice reflecting what is happening in the trenches other than the ODPM figures which most newspapers would not touch with a barge pole.

The ODPM sample is very accurate as it covers the entire nation and each type of house from flats to detatched. This is possibly why the newspapers prefer the "forecasts" and "asking price" material that the EAs and Mortgage Companies like the public to read.

The HPC just continues along at a nice pace as all around it starts to crumble as the debt mountain, rising unemployment and world IR just keep taking their toll. As Mervyn King so boldly stated, its a rocky road ahead for the economy. Its a wonder he still has a job to go to after that remark.

Give up RB. These quarterly stats tell us nothing. Samples are too small, and they're not mix or volume adjusted.

Should we believe them, multimply them up by 4 and then believe we are in the middle of a 20% crash? Do you really, really believe that?

They just cover the entire UK, every house type, and actual selling prices. I agree they are not spun in any way and may be a bit raw but the trend they reflect is undeniable. As I read that my area is dowen 8.2% last quarter and match it to the house prices I actually observe in my area I see just how reasonably accurate the LR data really is. Far better than RM who may have said my area went up 8% over the same period based on a few silly asking prices.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Guest muttley

The problem that I have with this article is a common one on this site. Nobody ever defines what a "crash" is. If by crash, they mean a 60% drop then I would say that 1 in 20 was too high. A 10% "crash" and I would say that the 1 in 20 looks too low.

So what's a crash? And isn't it possible for some areas to crash, while other areas correct, and other areas have thr froth blown off them?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I agree the figure for the UK is meaningless.

It would be interesting to know why Denmark is apparently looking so likely to crash - does anyone have any knowledge of the Danish market?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I agree the figure for the UK is meaningless.

It would be interesting to know why Denmark is apparently looking so likely to crash - does anyone have any knowledge of the Danish market?

No but I do have knowledge of the French market and it about as likely to crash as they are to win the World Cup.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The ODPM sample is very accurate as it covers the entire nation and each type of house from flats to detatched. This is possibly why the newspapers prefer the "forecasts" and "asking price" material that the EAs and Mortgage Companies like the public to read.

................ I agree they are not spun in any way and may be a bit raw but the trend they reflect is undeniable. As I read that my area is dowen 8.2% last quarter and match it to the house prices I actually observe in my area I see just how reasonably accurate the LR data really is. Far better than RM who may have said my area went up 8% over the same period based on a few silly asking prices.

But the point is, if you sort the figures in a different way, you can get a totally different impression from the figures. If you sort the figures the other way, you could "show" that HPI is actually full-steam ahead.

The issue is the spin that you choose to put on the figures, not the authority of the source.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Guest muttley

I have read the paper, and have posted my analysis of the contents.

Billy Shears

Could you copy and paste it?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

cnhouse19.gif

What a load of crap

anyone want to give me 20 to 1 on a crash in the UK then i'll take it.

France is in better shape than we are and you can still buy property for £30k

i give the UK about the same odds as Spain, this is just spin to stop brits taking their money and buying abroad like millions have before them, myself included

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...
Sign in to follow this  

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.

  • 301 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



×
×
  • Create New...

Important Information

We have placed cookies on your device to help make this website better. You can adjust your cookie settings, otherwise we'll assume you're okay to continue.