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Builders Shares Crash Yet Ea's Are Spinning Hpi Growth

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House builder shares are crashing - Persimmons shares are currently down -22% despite reported house price sales growth, and the other housing developers have experienced similar falls and are blatantly staring into the abyss.............yet Rightmove et al are singing louder than ever that the market is mega buoyant and on the cusp of extended growth.

Who is telling porkies here, is it the investors view of the market +6 months out or is it the EA's wanting to keep making a fast buck?

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House builder shares are crashing - Persimmons shares are currently down -22% despite reported house price sales growth, and the other housing developers have experienced similar falls and are blatantly staring into the abyss.............yet Rightmove et al are singing louder than ever that the market is mega buoyant and on the cusp of extended growth.

Who is telling porkies here, is it the investors view of the market +6 months out or is it the EA's wanting to keep making a fast buck?

as I posted here - http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/forum/ind...showtopic=31871

"in Preston - newbuilds are offering 5% deposit, carpets, stamp duty and legal fees paid."

and a lot of builders have taken to advertising their newbuilds with regular estate agents - usually easy to spot, description such as "Newly built home, stamp duty and £500 legal fees paid. Part ex considered".

So, who's telling porkies? Dunno. Maybe the newbuilds are even more horrendously overpriced than regular "2nd hand" property so they're having to offer more incentives.

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Guest Bart of Darkness

Builders Shares Crash Yet Ea's Are Spinning Hpi Growth, Who is lying?

Well we know that EAs don't lie, so it must be reality that is at fault.

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Yup, take a look at the DrBubb builders index for a comparison against house prices - monthly builders trend is clearly down:

http://www.houseprices.uk.net/articles/house_builders_index/

But, both are artually right - the builders are falling because they're too high, and Rightmove is rising to meet, but both are trying to close the gap. :)

Builders: 16th June/06

WMPY 437

BDEV 886

PSN 1132

WLB 1447

BBY 319

FTSE 5597

Builders Index = 164 (base = 100 @ Jan/04)

Builders Index FTSE-Adj = 127 (base = 100 @ Jan/04)

Edited by spline

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Yup, take a look at the DrBubb builders index for a nice comparison - monthly trend is clearly down:

http://www.houseprices.uk.net/articles/house_builders_index/

Both are artually right - the builders are falling because they are too high, and Rightmove is rising to meet, but both are closing the gap. :)

Builders: 16th June/06

WMPY 437

BDEV 886

PSN 1132

WLB 1447

BBY 319

FTSE 5597

Builders Index = 164 (base = 100 @ Jan/04)

Builders Index FTSE-Adj = 127 (base = 100 @ Jan/04)

You lot place far too much faith in a link between builders' share prices and house prices. Are you convinced there is a strong correlation?

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You lot place far too much faith in a link between builders' share prices and house prices. Are you convinced there is a strong correlation?

Difficult to say – the agreement 2002 to 2006 is quite impressive, so it’s probably quite good for the next year, but I’m not sure about the longer term without re-basing it as we go along. Also it’s a bit noisy so maybe some smoothing is needed.

Edited by spline

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Guest

Difficult to say – the agreement 2002 to 2006 is quite impressive, so it’s probably quite good for the next year, but I’m not sure about the longer term without re-basing it as we go along. Also it’s a bit noisy so maybe some smoothing is needed.

Yeah but the agreement between the FTSE and house prices has been pretty damn good since 2002 what with this wash of cheap money.... But that couldn't possibly have any effect, could it?

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Yeah but the agreement between the FTSE and house prices has been pretty damn good since 2002 what with this wash of cheap money.... But that couldn't possibly have any effect, could it?

Interestingly, the “really good” agreement is between house prices and the builders index adjusted to be relative to the FTSE, so it’s specifically blind to the overall level of the stockmarket. ;)

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  • 301 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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