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A Waiting Game

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Of late, I have seen a few postings from vintage HPC members who have decided to throw in the towel and get on the housing ladder. This site has been going for some years now but the long awaited crash has yet to materialise

There are many pressures to buy - starting a familiy, sense of security, home making, peer pressure, fear of losing out, joining the real world.

If you are one of those people who want to own their own house but are waiting for the 'predictions' of this site to come true before you attempt to buy, how long are you prepared to wait?

1 year

2 years

5 years

10 years

or more...

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there will come a point where a house simply is not worth it.

i am enjoying having money. why would i want to throw that away at all costs for a crumbling terrace in need of constant repairs and high bills.

no. if theres no crash. then im happier renting.

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I live in the Stratford area and according the the Land Registry figures we have somewhat of a HPC going on with the last Q as follows:

Stratford-On-Avon £328,827 -8.2%

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/shared/spl/hi/in_d...ml/county98.stm

I have my house money in the bank earning around 5%. I am in the market for a detached house which, prior to the last Q fall, would have cost around 325k. With a 8.2% drop that works out at around 27k down. If that rate should hold over 12 months that is equivalent to 2200 pounds a month. My house money brings in another 1000 pounds or so which translates to a notional "income" of almost 3200 pounds a month.

My rent is 750 pounds a month so you can see that I would be willing to wait a LONG time before I buy a house.

Further, the drop of 8.2% is just at the beginning of the down cycle and I expect it to continue to drop as time goes by.

Now is a very bad time for anyone to buy.

Edited by Realistbear

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We are looking in Stratford and it seems that properties are coming down but so slowly it's not funny and a few thousand at a time.

One house we looked at in 2002 for £249k and decided that was overpriced then is back on for £349k. It's a new build type off the Alcester Road so hardly desirable.

We want to be in Old town and I suspect that is never going to realistically priced.

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We are looking in Stratford and it seems that properties are coming down but so slowly it's not funny and a few thousand at a time.

One house we looked at in 2002 for £249k and decided that was overpriced then is back on for £349k. It's a new build type off the Alcester Road so hardly desirable.

We want to be in Old town and I suspect that is never going to realistically priced.

Exceptions always exist but if you look at the data from the Land Registry you see that the average detached house has dropped 8.2% last quarter. I look at the property pages every week and this week shows another round of "price reduced." I compare the prices with previous papers (I am doing a serious study of prices around here) and see an average of 5k off every week for houses that are not moving--and these are nice properties in the 300k range.

Cheaper homes in north Warwick did a little better with a nice drop over the last quarter:

North Warwickshire £115,402 -11.2%

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/shared/spl/hi/in_d...html/44ue.stm?t

20% down by the end of this year is not unrealistic at this rate!

Edited by Realistbear

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If you are one of those people who want to own their own house but are waiting for the 'predictions' of this site to come true before you attempt to buy, how long are you prepared to wait?

1 year

2 years

5 years

10 years

or more...

I'm afraid it might have to be 10 years. I believe that it will probably be around 3-4 years before we see the housing market going into a significant nose dive. I also think that we might be in for a long (Japan 1990-2006 style) recession when it does start.

Housing, in the current market, is very poor value for money (a point we need to be stressing to would be first time buyers). I believe that housing is significantly overvalued and when it does crash we may be in for some surprising reductions. However, I also believe that the crash (I prefer to call it a slump) will be long and protracted. It may take some years to realise the full extent of the crash.

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I'm afraid it might have to be 10 years. I believe that it will probably be around 3-4 years before we see the housing market going into a significant nose dive. I also think that we might be in for a long (Japan 1990-2006 style) recession when it does start.

Housing, in the current market, is very poor value for money (a point we need to be stressing to would be first time buyers). I believe that housing is significantly overvalued and when it does crash we may be in for some surprising reductions. However, I also believe that the crash (I prefer to call it a slump) will be long and protracted. It may take some years to realise the full extent of the crash.

I am not so sure. I agree the crash will be protracted but the initial drops should be very sharp. The ODPM's figures for some areas are starting to show 8-10% drops for the last Quarter. If that keeps up................................. :)

I am watching my local paper and the "price reduced" ads are multiplying and if you compare with the previous prices many are dropping 5k a week to try to snag a buyer. There will be a lot of distressed sellers out there given the debt situation, rising mortgages and dropping employment numbers.

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You're so clearly a VI doing a bit of research! I like the way you plant emotive words like "Home ownership" and "wait".!

RUMBLED!!

This post is designed to scare newbies!

If you are new to this site do a search for anything by Slater14.

Or if you see too many of these kind of posts why not try a more 'Global' approach?

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if it was it backfired. they must think we HAVE to have a house at any cost.

and we clearly dont think that.

being comfortable and having money first. then mortgage if safe i think is the rule here.

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Of late, I have seen a few postings from vintage HPC members who have decided to throw in the towel and get on the housing ladder. This site has been going for some years now but the long awaited crash has yet to materialise

There are many pressures to buy - starting a familiy, sense of security, home making, peer pressure, fear of losing out, joining the real world.

If you are one of those people who want to own their own house but are waiting for the 'predictions' of this site to come true before you attempt to buy, how long are you prepared to wait?

1 year

2 years

5 years

10 years

or more...

I would prefer to wait no more than 2 years, however if the market still looked to me to be a bad move at that particular time, I reckon I would wait indefinitely, until such time as I felt that I would be buying a home which would be value for my hard-earned money.

I will not pay £150k for something somebody paid £70k for a few years ago. I'd rather live in a tent than throw away £80k on something that is so grossly overpriced.

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The trouble is though RB the houses which are coming down are the houses that nobody wants, the one on the Alcester Road or on Shottery Road is a great example, neither are in desirable parts of town, both are on main busy roads and neither are in catchment areas for the schools you would choose.

It's also possible we may have single handedly personally screwed those figures, our house sold for 17% less than the last one in our street, that would have quite an impact on the postcode for that quarter.

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I'm planning a self managed build, eventually, but will wait until plots are priced at a level that no longer includes a huge premium that is currently the case due to speculative minor investors doing self builds purely for profit. In my area (south of Scotland) although LR figures show price drops and I "feel" that prices are falling (ridiculously overpriced on "offers over" now just overpriced on fixed price) public opinion is religiously following the VIs and we are badly affected by people buying into the area as investments because the area has been touted as an opportunity. Indeed, Kirsty and Phil did one of their detestable programmes here. For me, I think a general acceptance that prices are: 1) not going to rise for ever and 2) falling, will radically change my prospects of buying even when the big correction I hope for is just starting to run its course. I feel that 12-18 months might be a realistic estimate for such a shift in sentiment.

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I'll probably wait another 12 months and see what unravels. If there is no change then I will probably start looking, if interest rates go up and houses start to come down then I'll wait.

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The trouble is though RB the houses which are coming down are the houses that nobody wants, the one on the Alcester Road or on Shottery Road is a great example, neither are in desirable parts of town, both are on main busy roads and neither are in catchment areas for the schools you would choose.

It's also possible we may have single handedly personally screwed those figures, our house sold for 17% less than the last one in our street, that would have quite an impact on the postcode for that quarter.

Thankfully, that does not seem to be the case as almost the entire West Midlands is going down:

Herefordshire £289,910 -0.9%

Warwickshire £287,775 -5.8%

Worcestershire £280,997 -1.1%

West Midlands £269,526 1.8%

Shropshire £255,674 -4.9%

Staffordshire £244,820 -1.9%

Wrekin £213,857 2.7%

Stoke-On-Trent £165,187 -0.1%

Stratford is dropping the most:

Stratford-On-Avon £328,827 -8.2%

Warwick £321,358 -7.4%

North Warwickshire £264,202 -3.4%

Rugby £261,763 -6.7%

Stratford may see as much as 15-20% off by the end of the year as theere are large numbers of houses coming onto the market and I have seen a worrying number back on after sales have fallen through. These are listed in the newspaper as "unexpectedly back on the market." With no FTBs I am afraid that chains are breaking down everywhere and frustrated sellers are waiting months only to have to try and sell again on a market that is weakening by the day.

So, I would hang on as the bargains are growing!

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Thankfully, that does not seem to be the case as almost the entire West Midlands is going down:

Herefordshire £289,910 -0.9%

Warwickshire £287,775 -5.8%

Worcestershire £280,997 -1.1%

West Midlands £269,526 1.8%

Shropshire £255,674 -4.9%

Staffordshire £244,820 -1.9%

Wrekin £213,857 2.7%

Stoke-On-Trent £165,187 -0.1%

Stratford is dropping the most:

Stratford-On-Avon £328,827 -8.2%

Warwick £321,358 -7.4%

North Warwickshire £264,202 -3.4%

Rugby £261,763 -6.7%

Stratford may see as much as 15-20% off by the end of the year as theere are large numbers of houses coming onto the market and I have seen a worrying number back on after sales have fallen through. These are listed in the newspaper as "unexpectedly back on the market." With no FTBs I am afraid that chains are breaking down everywhere and frustrated sellers are waiting months only to have to try and sell again on a market that is weakening by the day.

So, I would hang on as the bargains are growing!

I do hope you're right, I want to go home !

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Hi guys

I live in Bromsgrove and it’s a sorry state of affairs if you’re an STR that is

I posted this last week in the House price forum and did not really get a decent response I thought I would tag on it on here as it seems appropriate

http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/forum/ind...topic=31459&hl=

"I Live as the title says in Bromsgrove and for the last 15-18 months houses have started to drop and sales have been far and few between.

The Houses that have sold have either have come back onto the market a few weeks or have taken approx 3 months to complete.

That was until last week and there has been an absolute selling frenzy approx 15 houses sold in 1 week and some of these houses had been on the market for 12 months plus.

I am A full paid up member of the STR club and after rover closed down the estate took a big hit and ground to a halt and I thought I had completely sussed the market around here until last week and I have never seen anything like it any ideas why all of a sudden the selling frenzy?

The Cow"

And since I posted this it has got worse there was particular house that I was watching it was very overpriced.

it was up for 375k the same house sold recently for 320K and it was spotless a friend of mine viewed the 375K house and his comments were "Its as if a bachelor has lived there nothing has been done since the day it was purchased. they don’t even have a patio laid" so I was using this house as my yard stick and I thought if that place sells I’m screwed and guess what the sold sign went up this morning I am flabbergasted.

I would post the rightmove link but it has been removed for some reason??

I would say there were about 20 houses for sale and in the last couple of weeks approx 17 have sold I am totally confused.

I suppose the point i am making this thread is stating that houses in this area are bombing but not were I am sitting?

The Cow >:o)

Edited by cowtipper

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I'm planning a self managed build, eventually, but will wait until plots are priced at a level that no longer includes a huge premium that is currently the case due to speculative minor investors doing self builds purely for profit

So are you going to buy a plot when you cannot make a profit from it?.

Surely that would imply the plot is even more expensive in real terms.

I have bought many plots in my time, if there is profit in buying them, the thats the time to buy for sure.

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Of late, I have seen a few postings from vintage HPC members who have decided to throw in the towel and get on the housing ladder. This site has been going for some years now but the long awaited crash has yet to materialise

There are many pressures to buy - starting a familiy, sense of security, home making, peer pressure, fear of losing out, joining the real world.

If you are one of those people who want to own their own house but are waiting for the 'predictions' of this site to come true before you attempt to buy, how long are you prepared to wait?

1 year

2 years

5 years

10 years

or more...

We're prepared to wait 2-3 years to see what's going to happen - as long as prices don't start rocketing again (which I very much doubt) we'd rather save money and have less of a mortgage (we'd ideally like to have no mortgage). We're not waiting for 'predictions' of this site to come true - it's just good to come and read what other people think about the matter.

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Of late, I have seen a few postings from vintage HPC members who have decided to throw in the towel and get on the housing ladder. This site has been going for some years now but the long awaited crash has yet to materialise

There are many pressures to buy - starting a familiy, sense of security, home making, peer pressure, fear of losing out, joining the real world.

If you are one of those people who want to own their own house but are waiting for the 'predictions' of this site to come true before you attempt to buy, how long are you prepared to wait?

1 year

2 years

5 years

10 years

or more...

der - until I can afford to buy!

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Of late, I have seen a few postings from vintage HPC members who have decided to throw in the towel and get on the housing ladder. This site has been going for some years now but the long awaited crash has yet to materialise

There are many pressures to buy - starting a familiy, sense of security, home making, peer pressure, fear of losing out, joining the real world.

If you are one of those people who want to own their own house but are waiting for the 'predictions' of this site to come true before you attempt to buy, how long are you prepared to wait?

1 year

2 years

5 years

10 years

or more...

Probably 10 years. I'm still young. If HP's are still as high compared to wages i'll probably live in a different country where they are not.

Anyway I can rent a 2-bed flat for £750. Mortgage (100%, interest only) on same flat £850 + maintence cost + service charges. So i'll stick with renting it's a no-brainer.

But ultimately it is better to own because you have more freedom to change or enhance the property, no horrible damage-deposits or inspections!

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peer pressure, fear of losing out, joining the real world.

So, let's get this straight. Because I don't own a property, i'm not part of the real world?

This is big news, I need to sit down :unsure:

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So, let's get this straight. Because I don't own a property, i'm not part of the real world?

This is big news, I need to sit down :unsure:

Society is defined by the will of the masses, in the UK, society aspires to home ownership. This may not appeal to you but I am sure that most people who don't own would like to. 'The real world' being a euphemism for our current society.

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Guest The_Oldie

I am sure that most people who don't own would like to.

I wouldn't, as least not at this point in the property price cycle.

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I wouldn't, as least not at this point in the property price cycle.

So you do want to own then. The latter half of your sentence let you down!

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Guest The_Oldie

So you do want to own then. The latter half of your sentence let you down!

When it makes economic sense, I'll buy, but not until then.

Interest rates are set to rise and prices set to fall.

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  • 302 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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