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Realistbear

Monday On The F T S E Looks Unpleasant

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Friday turned out to be somewhat unpleasant:

FTSE 100 (FSI:^FTSE)

Index Value: 5,598.50

Trade Time: 4:29PM

Change: 20.80 (0.37%)

Prev Close: 5,619.30

Open: 5,619.30

Day's Range: 5,594.30 - 5,701.50

52wk Range: 5,013.40 - 6,137.10

The DOW is listless and there is a lot of tension due to Ben's apparent hawkishness in the face of a HPC and higher inflation all at the same time:

DJ INDUSTR AVERAGE (DJI:^DJI)

Index Value: 11,007.27

Trade Time: 6:00PM

Change: 7.92 (0.07%)

Prev Close: 11,015.19

Open: 11,014.38

Day's Range: 10,984.13 - 11,027.43

52wk Range: 10,098.20 - 11,709.10

Volume: 274,847,456

If the DOW ends up more than 50 down today, Monday will be most uncongenial on the FTSE. I think we have at least 500 points more to come off the FTSE before this present correction blows through.

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Tomorrow looks moderately pleasant and Sunday could go one way, or the other.

What is the point of this constant speculation on the daily movements in the stock market.

Why aren't they moved off-topic?

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Tomorrow looks moderately pleasant and Sunday could go one way, or the other.

What is the point of this constant speculation on the daily movements in the stock market.

Why aren't they moved off-topic?

IR, stocks and houses are inextricably interwoven these days. A crash on the SM may stall IR hikes so we have to keep a sharp eye on them. Also, a protracted bear market in the City will lead to thousands of layoffs which will crash house prices in London.

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IR, stocks and houses are inextricably interwoven these days. A crash on the SM may stall IR hikes so we have to keep a sharp eye on them. Also, a protracted bear market in the City will lead to thousands of layoffs which will crash house prices in London.

Well said could not agree more!

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Absolute cobblers again - the big long term picture is looking very rosy - the stock market bears no relation to the housing market in the short term.

There again, when you are desperate to keep your spirits up, then you have to clutch at all lifelines and the stockmarket is the ONLY one you have left.

Its pretty clear UK IRs are unlikely to go up and if they do, the max looks like 0.25% sometime next year.

Face facts, you've lost again and you're going to be waiting a generation for your crash.

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Absolute cobblers again - the big long term picture is looking very rosy - the stock market bears no relation to the housing market in the short term.

There again, when you are desperate to keep your spirits up, then you have to clutch at all lifelines and the stockmarket is the ONLY one you have left.

Its pretty clear UK IRs are unlikely to go up and if they do, the max looks like 0.25% sometime next year.

Face facts, you've lost again and you're going to be waiting a generation for your crash.

Ahh but some of us here remember that dreadful day in 1987 when the stocks hit the skids pulling the house market down with it 17 months later. A crashing stock market is highly recessionary and it destroys confidence. City workers are laid of in the thousands which is why London led the Great Crash.

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These links are probably old HPC fodder. Even if they are it may be useful to revisit.

They highlight that sometimes there isn’t a single cause or even tangible reason for a bear run.

Market crashes

Bear Markets: Wall streets worst

I know the links come from the beeb, but they can't spin history. Can they?

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the stock market bears no relation to the housing market in the short term.

IMupNorth, If you think the stock market and the housing market aren't inextricably linked at ALL times, then I think you should change your name to "I'maMuppet".

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This seems to be the reason for Friday's dip:

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/main.jhtm.../17/ixcity.html

China takes steam out of its boom by pegging back lending

By Edmund Conway and David Litterick in New York (Filed: 17/06/2006)

Leading shares in London suffered a sudden drop late yesterday afternoon after China's central bank tightened money supply in an effort to bring its soaring expansion under control.
The People's Bank of China announced it is increasing the requirement of reserves commercial banks must have by 0.5 percentage points to 8pc. The move is aimed at cooling soaring levels of lending and investment, but it awoke fears of the prospect of a crash.
The People's Bank said: "Investment growth remains excessively fast, credit growth remains on the fast side, and the trade surplus is large, causing problems and conflicts."
The FTSE 100 index of leading shares gave away an early gain of 80 points to finish down 21.9 points at 5597.40 on the day and down 57.8 points on the week.

The world trend in tightening is widespread and gaining momentum as inflationary pressure continue to build--everywhere that is, except for Gordon's Little Britain where inflation remains at 2%. <_<

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Friday turned out to be somewhat unpleasant:

FTSE 100 (FSI:^FTSE)

Index Value: 5,598.50

Trade Time: 4:29PM

Change: 20.80 (0.37%)

Prev Close: 5,619.30

Open: 5,619.30

Day's Range: 5,594.30 - 5,701.50

52wk Range: 5,013.40 - 6,137.10

The DOW is listless and there is a lot of tension due to Ben's apparent hawkishness in the face of a HPC and higher inflation all at the same time:

DJ INDUSTR AVERAGE (DJI:^DJI)

Index Value: 11,007.27

Trade Time: 6:00PM

Change: 7.92 (0.07%)

Prev Close: 11,015.19

Open: 11,014.38

Day's Range: 10,984.13 - 11,027.43

52wk Range: 10,098.20 - 11,709.10

Volume: 274,847,456

If the DOW ends up more than 50 down today, Monday will be most uncongenial on the FTSE. I think we have at least 500 points more to come off the FTSE before this present correction blows through.

You seem to fancy yourself as some sort of commentator, yet your 'predictions' (= hopes) never actually happen.

One day, there really will be a dip in house prices, perhaps even a strong correction or a crash. History tells us this will happen, just as it tells us that the housing market and stock markets will recover strongly. They always do. And when a proper dip does happen, as we all expect it to eventually, you'll crow that you were 'right' all along.

The fact is that your analyses are junk, and nearly always wrong.

Edited by brassfarthing

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Tomorrow looks moderately pleasant and Sunday could go one way, or the other.

What is the point of this constant speculation on the daily movements in the stock market.

Why aren't they moved off-topic?

Isn't it obvious? Realistbear makes some obvious call

based on the close of the Dow / S&P500, by which time

it's all priced into the ftse spread-bet models, then lo, an

add advertising spread-betting on the ftse appears. The

market unsurprisingly opens much as it was post US

close, you think Realsitbear is a genius, want to cash in

on his predictions (which are nothing more than a verbatim

report of th estatus quo) and you then open an account with

the Google Ads advertised spread bet company.

CONCLUSION : Realistbear is paying for the priviledge

of posting these reports because they are cunning

ploys to get you to sign up with the spread bettor.

The site gets ad revenue. Simple.

Well said could not agree more!

You don't even know what you are agreeing with as Realistbear

is saying a depressed market will both help and hinder housing.

Low interest rates help house prices, layoffs hinder. He

hasn't told you which.

...a protracted bear market in the City will lead to thousands of layoffs which will crash house prices in London.

How can you make such bald assertions?

Does it not occur to you that the currently thin markets

are probably being manipulated by aquisition hungry

private equity groups? The market falls, another takeover

occurs. Terribly bad news for investment banks / corporate

financiers etc NOT!

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Guest The_Oldie

CONCLUSION : Realistbear is paying for the priviledge

of posting these reports because they are cunning

ploys to get you to sign up with the spread bettor.

The site gets ad revenue. Simple.

Rubbish, Fubra have no input whatsoever in the site moderation.

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Absolute cobblers again - the big long term picture is looking very rosy - the stock market bears no relation to the housing market in the short term.

There again, when you are desperate to keep your spirits up, then you have to clutch at all lifelines and the stockmarket is the ONLY one you have left.

You know that you and I are on opposite sides

of this argument. My view, that house prices are

where they are because of profligate lending

policies and the carry trade has not changed,

but I posted charts showing, if anything, a

counter cyclical relationship between stocks and

property. Would Realistbear listen or comment.

Of course not. He's too busy pushing his

spread betting business.

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You seem to fancy yourself as some sort of commentator, yet your 'predictions' (= hopes) never actually happen.

One day, there really will be a dip in house prices, perhaps even a strong correction or a crash. History tells us this will happen, just as it tells us that the housing market and stock markets will recover strongly. They always do. And when a proper dip does happen, as we all expect it to eventually, you'll crow that you were 'right' all along.

The fact is that your analyses are junk, and nearly always wrong.

Which prediction was wrong?

If you are referring to the HPC--its early days yet. HPCs are known by hindsight because price falls begin slowly and gather momentum as panic selling spreads. The most recent report from RICS admitted to a record number of properties coming on the market. Some might ask themselves why. Are they all moving somewhere or perhaps trying to emigrate? BTLers trying to bail? A HPC is much like the stockmarket but slower as it is harder to get out from under a house than with shares which just takes a click of the mouse.

Yes, you are right that all crashes eventually recover unless it is something that the world no longer buys such as film cameras. Its a boom and bust economy and Gordon can no more control the tide of business than he can the salty kind.

So what's the point? As a property bear at this time I am simply advising that now is a terrible time to buy and a good time to sell if it is not too late. If you own a house and are happy and are not overleveraged then I would say stay put and let the storm pass.

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Rubbish, Fubra have no input whatsoever in the site moderation.

Are you saying Realistbear is Fubra?!

IMupNorth, If you think the stock market and the housing market aren't inextricably linked at ALL times, then I think you should change your name to "I'maMuppet".

But what is the relationship: are they in phase or anti-phase?

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Guest The_Oldie

Are you saying Realistbear is Fubra?!

You quoted a post asking why certain posts are not moved to off topic, I assumed you were suggesting there was a motive to generate revenue for this site's advertisers.

The moderators have no commercial guidlines from the site owners.

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You know that you and I are on opposite sides

of this argument. My view, that house prices are

where they are because of profligate lending

policies and the carry trade has not changed,

but I posted charts showing, if anything, a

counter cyclical relationship between stocks and

property. Would Realistbear listen or comment.

Of course not. He's too busy pushing his

spread betting business.

FYI, I own hardly any shares and invested almost exclusively in mutual funds. Sold most 4-8 weeks ago before things got really bad on the global markets. I have to admit though, you could make a lot of money on the predicatbility of the markets right now. For example, we can all expect a very unpleasant day on the FTSE and DOW Monday because of some nasty things said over the weekend by certain bank governors and the probably resignation of the BoJ boss. If you had read any of my recent posts you would have seen that my consistent view is that cash is the place to be during these turbulent times--not stocks and definately not property.

Here is a good summary of the predictable nature of today's market:

http://www.businessweek.com/investor/conte...0616_589117.htm

The recent high degree of market correlation is the result of the Federal Reserve and other central banks pulling liquidity out of the markets by raising interest rates, says David Blitzer, chairman of the index committee at Standard & Poor's. That makes risk-taking more expensive.
"Markets tumble, people can't ignore oil at $70 forever. This is unfolding as usual when liquidity drains," Blitzer says. "This is a moment when they all move together. It really was no surprise. We were living on borrowed money, there was a lot of speculation, and everybody turned chicken at once."
According to S&P data, all the major world markets moved up together this year through May 9, and have moved down together since.
*
As a result of coordinated interest rate hikes around the world, the S&P Citigroup World Index has fallen 12% since May 9, with declines seen in both U.S. and international equities. The index posted solid double-digit gains through early May. The strong correlations among various global stock markets has only increased volatility and risk, in our view, as the vast majority of issues move in the same direction on any given day.
Rosanne Pane, a mutual fund strategist with S&P's portfolio services, sees better times ahead. "When markets stabilize, the more attractive opportunities begin to separate from the other market sectors, and you begin to see declining correlations," she says.
S&P advises putting 45% into U.S. stocks, 20% into foreign equities, 20% into short-term bonds, and 15% into cash.**

*Which is why it is so easy to predict exactly what the FTSE will do every day!

** If you don't S& P will lose money

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Another article suggesting its time to stay away from the stockmarkets:

http://www.smh.com.au/news/business/rough-...9964786466.html

Rough times not over yet

June 18, 2006

THE US stock market found some stability over the past week as investors put aside fears of an economic slowdown and higher interest rates, but analysts say Wall Street may be in for an unsettled summer.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 1.12 per cent over the week to Friday to end at 11,014.55 while the tech-heavy Nasdaq composite lost 0.24 per cent to 2,129.95. The broad-market Standard and Poor's 500 gave back 0.06 per cent to 1,251.54.
The main indexes stabilised after Wall Street's worst week of the year, but analysts say the market is not out of the woods yet.
"I would expect stocks to engage in a saw-toothed trading pattern
that reflects skittish psychology and resulting high reactivity to daily news stories," Eugene Peroni of Claymore Securities said.

They mention a saw-toothed pattern. Might be a good bet if you like to gamble on patterns. I wouldn't touch the market with a barge pole right now as it is too skittish and a burp from Ben might be interpreted as a sell signal.

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Looking unusually good on the FTSE today? DOW futures look mixed:

06:27 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +1.3. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -0.8.

FTSE trailing down just a little as time for lunch looms:

FTSE 100 (FSI:^FTSE)

Index Value: 5,649.50

Trade Time: 11:47AM

Change: 52.10 (0.93%)

Prev Close: 5,597.40

Open: 5,597.40

Day's Range: 5,597.40 - 5,665.70

52wk Range: 5,013.40 - 6,137.10

Perhaps the FTSE is waiting to see where the DOW is going. Will Ben or won't he?

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DOW still looks okay and a bit mixed:

07:50 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +1.3. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -0.2. It is shapping up to be a mixed and relatively flat open as both the SnP 500 and Nasdaq 100 futures are trading close to fair value. There hasn't much news this morning to stir the U.S. market, but European bourses are trading with a bullish bias following an announcement that Nokia (NOK) and Siemens are planning a joint venture that will combine their telecom network equipment businsses. There is no economic data today, but Atlanta Fed President Guynn will be speaking at 09:30 ET about the economic outlook.

FTSE broke down below the 50 mark:

FTSE 100 (FSI:^FTSE)

Index Value: 5,645.80

Trade Time: 1:04PM

Change: 48.40 (0.86%)

Prev Close: 5,597.40

Open: 5,597.40

Day's Range: 5,597.40 - 5,665.70

52wk Range: 5,013.40 - 6,137.10

This is a crucial time for the markets as everyone is seeing if there is going to be bounce and sustained Rally. I still think we have another 10% drop this summer. The problem for investors is where do you put your money? The savvy investors will not be touching property this late in the cycle and Gold is not doing so well today with a drop of $10:

www.kitco.com The World Spot Price - Asia/Europe/NY markets

MARKET IS OPEN

(Will close in 5 hrs. 24 mins.)

Metals Date Time (EST) Bid Ask Change from NY Close

GOLD 06/19/2006 08:05 567.60 568.60 -10.80

08:16 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +2.7. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +0.5. There has been some improvement in the futures trade following a better than expected earnings report from Circuit City (CC) that was replete with an affirmation of the company's guidance for fiscal 2007. Accordingly, it now appears as if the market will start the session on a modestly higher note.

If no one from the Fed rains on the markets parade today we could see an up dat for the FTSE and the DOW.

A little more bearish as they come under starter's orders in the US:

08:49 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +1.9. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +0.2. Sellers are keeping to the sidelines for the most part as the leaning of futures trading continues to suggest a slightly higher start for stocks. The Treasury market for its part is flat at the moment, as there hasn't been any data to stir the pot. The 10-year yield is at 5.13%, which is three basis points lower than the yield on the 2-year note, but up 16 basis points from where it was when last week began.

Edited by Realistbear

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i thought you said the market was easy to read and that monday would show a drop ?

Doesn't look like it today. If the DOW opens well the FTSE should hold on. Not sure what is holding the FTSE up today as the news from RSA was negative and the Fed are speaking again this afternoon which will inevitably be a pre-hiking warning. Bargain hunters must be the only explanation as the fundamentals have not changed from the exciting days of last week and the week before. I still do not think stocks are going to fare that well this summer but as always--you never can tell with so many worldwide factors to consider.

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Hmmmm. DOW is going sour and the FTSE is headed toward another loss making day. We may yet see another unpleasant finish here in London:

FTSE 100 (FSI:^FTSE) Delayed quote data

Index Value: 5,626.10

Trade Time: 10:40AM ET

Change: 28.70 (0.51%)

Prev Close: 5,597.40

Open: 5,597.40

Day's Range: 5,597.40 - 5,665.70

52wk Range: 5,022.10 - 6,137.10

DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL AVERAGE IN (DJI:^DJI) Delayed quote data

Index Value: 10,991.25

Trade Time: 10:41AM ET

Change: 23.30 (0.21%)

Prev Close: 11,014.55

Open: 11,014.87

Day's Range: 10,984.77 - 11,057.61

52wk Range: 10,098.20 - 11,709.10

Looks like it was the Fed's final rate raising speech that did it:

http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Story/Stor...rss&siteid=mktw

Fed's Guynn repeats last week's speech

Last Update: 9:45 AM ET Jun 19, 2006

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- Atlanta Fed President Jack Guynn largely repeated the text of his June 7 speech in remarks Monday to a bankers group in Florida, a spokesman at the Atlanta Fed said. In that June 7 speech, Guynn said "monetary policy is now close to where it should be" if the Federal Reserve's forecast for slower growth is realized.
Inflation measures have been "bothersome," Guynn said.
Guynn's speech will be the last words on the economy from Fed officials before the June 28-29 meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee.
Edited by Realistbear

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  • 301 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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