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How Often Does This Happen?

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i have been browsing this site for about 6 months or so and have noticed that a number of recent posters seem to be getting very exited about an apparent media u-turn and are confidently predicting that the horse has now bolted and a fall in prices is iminent - i just wanted to know whether those more experienced posters have noticed a real change in the past couple of months or whether they have seen it all before... :huh:

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I've seen it come & go before, but this doesn't mean it's without foundation. Any excitement is usually caused by genuine pointers in the 'right' direction from independent stats/anecdotes/media articles etc. It's a slow process mind.

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What you see is a general drip drip of factors that will lead to a HPC, IMO it's not any one thing that will do it but the slow build up of various factors

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Something that's quite significant is the majority of people (according to several recent surveys) think that IRs are on the way up sometime soon.

Last year, economists were shouting from the rooftops that the direction of IRs was down. No doubt about it, no question. You'd be "silly" to think otherwise, even though many on this Board did.

Now, it's either a hold or a rise projected by most, and the public think so too.

It isn't just about what rates do in any one month that makes a difference, it's the direction people think they are going in that makes people think twice about indebting themselves to the max.

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i have been browsing this site for about 6 months or so and have noticed that a number of recent posters seem to be getting very exited about an apparent media u-turn and are confidently predicting that the horse has now bolted and a fall in prices is iminent - i just wanted to know whether those more experienced posters have noticed a real change in the past couple of months or whether they have seen it all before... :huh:

Specific events can get people excited - The Day of the Budget in November when Gordon Brown did his U turn on investing your pension in property had people coming in their pants on this forum!

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i have been browsing this site for about 6 months or so and have noticed that a number of recent posters seem to be getting very exited about an apparent media u-turn and are confidently predicting that the horse has now bolted and a fall in prices is iminent - i just wanted to know whether those more experienced posters have noticed a real change in the past couple of months or whether they have seen it all before... :huh:

Youre correct that the mainstream media are now cottoning on to the fact that there is a debt problem in the UK.

House Prices falling is a possible outcome of this.

There are some over-enthusiastic members who jump at these things. Yet often the same people criticise the media when bullish stories are run. The media is great when it reflects your view.

I have seen nothing in my area to change my mind. Its still stagnation, stagnation, stagnation.

Personally I dont believe in a rapid, severe decline in HPs.

A gradual drifting down of about 15-20% in asking prices over 24 - 30 months is most likely...then off up again.

What I have learned from this site is that the mainstream media is often months behind in reporting a story.

The internet is way ahead.

Newspapers in particular are dying on their feet, but its their own fault for publishing PR pieces as news.

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Personally I dont believe in a rapid, severe decline in HPs.

A gradual drifting down of about 15-20% in asking prices over 24 - 30 months is most likely...then off up again.

Do you know what they called it the last time prices gradually drifted down between 15 to 20% over a few years.

It was the 80's house price crash!

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  • 301 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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