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House Prices Rise At Fastest Pace In 2 Years - Rics

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Guest Bart of Darkness

House prices rise at fastest pace in 2 years - RICS

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"Buyers are trading up the housing ladder and have blown dust from their wallets as interest rates remain stable," said RICS spokesman Jeremy Leaf.

Ah! ;)

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House prices rise at fastest pace in 2 years - RICS

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Ah! ;)

Move on 10 years.......

House prices rise at fastest pace in 12 years - RICS

TB

Edited by teddyboy

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House prices rise at fastest pace in 2 years - RICS

- now next time the stock market falls all remeber to join in and cheer ... for all those people ALREADY on the ladder.

may_in_housing.JPG

post-141-1150355755.jpg

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House prices rise at fastest pace in 2 years - RICS

- now next time the stock market falls all remeber to join in and cheer ... for all those people ALREADY on the ladder.

Sorry, but I'm not clear what you mean? I'm asking you this because I think that your chart is disingenuous IMO!

KF

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"However, the upturn in the number of sellers will keep a lid on house price rises going into the second half of 2006."

Meanwhile new instructions to sell rose sharply in May, marking the fastest pace in more than a year, and came mostly in regions outside London and the South East.

"The upturn in the number of sellers suggests that some households are feeling pressure from high debt burdens as unemployment has crept up over the past 18 months," RICS said.

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Sorry, but I'm not clear what you mean? I'm asking you this because I think that your chart is disingenuous IMO!

KF

How can a chart give a false appearance? It is what happened. The SM had a mare and RICS reports a surge in enquiries. Why might that be? Money has been next to worthless over th epast 5 years and those saving for a house know this. Most people are incapable of anticipating change, so they look at their wealth-eroded bank balance relative to assets and realise it needs a new home (no pun intended). They look at various asset classes (but probably not Gold - a bit niche for most brits), see the SM is doing better than property but are nervous. What to do? Wait for a property correction and in the meantime think about SM investment, or just go for it like every other sheep in teh housing market. Tricky. Then we have a steep fall in shares and everyone and his uncle predicts worse to come. In those circumstances what would you do?

I heard somebodt the other day (b4 the recent turmoil) say that the SM wasn't in recovery but was consolidating in what was part of the next mega down cycle. Nothing original in that, but it does raise the question: when will that person EVER call a recovery? Probably never, and yet the markets continued to rise whilst they were fretting about a definition. Why raise this point? Because you are doing the same thing. I show you a chart of DATA and you say "disingenuous". LIFE is disingenuous my friend: so f@cking what!

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According to the article RICS' bottom line:

Meanwhile new instructions to
sell
rose sharply in May, marking the fastest pace in more than a year, and came mostly in regions outside London and the South East
.

We all remember our days researching our doctoral theses in economics that when supply increase prices tend to fall.

Even more insighteful is the final two paragraphs:

"
The upturn in the number of sellers suggests that some households are feeling pressure from high debt burdens as unemployment has crept up over the past 18 months," RICS said.
The unemployment rate rose to 5.3 percent in the three months to April, its highest in 3-1/2 years, data showed on Wednesday, while wage growth remained tame
.

Our background as experts in economics tells us that when jobs become scarce and payrises remain stuck money becomes tight. Its the old M= A+4 [squared]/C * Drag Coeffcient /price equation at work again.

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How can a chart give a false appearance? It is what happened. The SM had a mare and RICS reports a surge in enquiries. Why might that be? Money has been next to worthless over th epast 5 years and those saving for a house know this. Most people are incapable of anticipating change, so they look at their wealth-eroded bank balance relative to assets and realise it needs a new home (no pun intended). They look at various asset classes (but probably not Gold - a bit niche for most brits), see the SM is doing better than property but are nervous. What to do? Wait for a property correction and in the meantime think about SM investment, or just go for it like every other sheep in teh housing market. Tricky. Then we have a steep fall in shares and everyone and his uncle predicts worse to come. In those circumstances what would you do?

I heard somebodt the other day (b4 the recent turmoil) say that the SM wasn't in recovery but was consolidating in what was part of the next mega down cycle. Nothing original in that, but it does raise the question: when will that person EVER call a recovery? Probably never, and yet the markets continued to rise whilst they were fretting about a definition. Why raise this point? Because you are doing the same thing. I show you a chart of DATA and you say "disingenuous". LIFE is disingenuous my friend: so f@cking what!

I raised the point because I think you may really know better? I've attached an example of what I think better represents the broader picture as it stands right now and overall I'd say that it's difficult to be bearish about this chart - unless you're an Elliotician, that is?

HTH

KF

FTSE_100_HPC.gif

post-4672-1150360120.gif

Edited by KentishFella

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I raised the point because I think you may really know better? I've attached an example of what I think better represents the broader picture as it stands right now and overall I'd say that it's difficult to be bearish about this chart - unless you're an Elliotician, that is?

HTH

KF

FTSE_100_HPC.gif

I'm not a point and figure man so you may has well have shown me custard tarts. Point and figure charts however, like all charting methods are wrong as many times as they are right moneywise (that is you can have a chart that gets things right 95% of the time but the 5% will take away all the samll profits you've made on the 95/100 times). The longer term the chart, the more chances there are of constructing a chart with no downsides over the shorter term (for instance a strategy of buying the ftse when it moved above its 20 year moving average would have kept syou in stocks and profit for th epast 20 years : so what!).

I'm a trader. I trade what I see and I don't go big on multi-year predictions. My comments were not meant to imply any future direction for property or stocks, nor did I make any predictions. I merely pointed outthe medium and short term anti-cycles of property and shares. The charts don't lie. Why argue with facts? As to the long term?

The most amusing thing about these discussions is the criticism I receive. I laugh heartily at the high-minded comments, decrying my depiction of mere data. I AM ONLY SHOWING DATA. Doubtless however somebody will tell me one can judge nothing over a months worth of price movements. In fact, it will probably be the very sam epeople who predicted an immenent housing collapse on the basis of a couple of weeks of FTSE falls! LOL! LOL!

Edited by Sledgehead

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I laugh heartily at the high-minded comments, decrying my depiction of mere data. I AM ONLY SHOWING DATA.

Doubtless however somebody will tell me one can judge nothing over a months worth of price movements. In fact, it will probably be the very sam epeople who predicted an immenent housing collapse on the basis of a couple of weeks of FTSE falls! LOL! LOL!

I don't disagree with you, I was merely stating that it wasn't clear to me what you were saying - going back to your orginal post - and I guess that was because you choose to use 5 minute interval data to make your point? I say again that the chart I posted was actually rather bullish and so I'm emphatically not one of the peeps who're predicting an imminent HPC on the basis of a few weeks worth of price action on LSE? :)

It's all good knockabout stuff and I'll try an avoid the custard tarts in future? :)

BFN

KF

Edited by KentishFella

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Guest Fiddlesticks

The most amusing thing about these discussions is the criticism I receive. I laugh heartily at the high-minded comments, decrying my depiction of mere data. I AM ONLY SHOWING DATA. Doubtless however somebody will tell me one can judge nothing over a months worth of price movements. In fact, it will probably be the very sam epeople who predicted an immenent housing collapse on the basis of a couple of weeks of FTSE falls! LOL! LOL!

I'm not sure that data alone is much use to any of us. There's no shortage of data around.

One of the shortcomings of this site is that a lot of time is wasted trying to sidestep inconvenient data, or claiming that it's wrong. But once we do actually accept the data, the important (and rather difficult) thing is analysing it and deciding whether it means we should buy a house or not.

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TAKE A LOOK... in the RICS rear-view mirror

Righto <_< Monthly reports showing price falls of one per cent or more will indicate that we have reached your "crash cruise speed", but reports showing increases (or at least indicating increases) are dangerous rear view mirrors that will lead us to oblivion?

Let's at least be consistent

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I think that there is not going to be a house price crash, not in London anyway. I have been looking for a flat on/off for the last 7 months and if anything prices are going up, some areas more than others but the trend is up.

There is no point reading media reports because most of them would have come from press releases which are biased one way or the other. A lot of the figures mentioned in the media are those released by mortgage lenders who have an obvious interest.

The economy in the UK is not going to crash, just because it did in the 90s it doesn't mean that it is going to happen again; it might do eventually because things are cyclical, but there is no point getting a headache over it.

And even if there is a crash, as long as you have an income and do not try to sell during the crash, then things will perk up again. If you look back 100 years ago, the cost of living has gone up despite there being a 90s crash, two world wars, the american crash thingy etc etc. The important thing is to look at the big picture and look at the investment in the long-term (unless you are intro property development or and need to make a profit quickly).

I am speaking mainly for London and I could be wrong about other parts of the UK, but in London demand is always going to be far greater than in the rest of the UK, therefore trends in the most northern village in Scotland do not reflect a general trend. Likewise trends in London cannot be applied throughout the UK.

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I think that there is not going to be a house price crash, not in London anyway. I have been looking for a flat on/off for the last 7 months and if anything prices are going up, some areas more than others but the trend is up.

There is no point reading media reports because most of them would have come from press releases which are biased one way or the other. A lot of the figures mentioned in the media are those released by mortgage lenders who have an obvious interest.

The economy in the UK is not going to crash, just because it did in the 90s it doesn't mean that it is going to happen again; it might do eventually because things are cyclical, but there is no point getting a headache over it.

And even if there is a crash, as long as you have an income and do not try to sell during the crash, then things will perk up again. If you look back 100 years ago, the cost of living has gone up despite there being a 90s crash, two world wars, the american crash thingy etc etc. The important thing is to look at the big picture and look at the investment in the long-term (unless you are intro property development or and need to make a profit quickly).

I am speaking mainly for London and I could be wrong about other parts of the UK, but in London demand is always going to be far greater than in the rest of the UK, therefore trends in the most northern village in Scotland do not reflect a general trend. Likewise trends in London cannot be applied throughout the UK.

I thought it was widely accepted that it was overseas investors keeping London prices up?

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I thought it was widely accepted that it was overseas investors keeping London prices up?

Yes, people from abroad living in london, and people from the provinces, and students, and immigrants, and the city boys with big bonuses, and lots of other groups.

London is a micro-cosmos within the UK

I see London as a big money making machine, where each person living there is a nut/bolt of the machine; there is always going to be plenty of nuts and bolts going in and out of London, so there is no good reason why London will ever come to a halt.

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Yes, people from abroad living in london, and people from the provinces, and students, and immigrants, and the city boys with big bonuses, and lots of other groups.

London is a micro-cosmos within the UK

I see London as a big money making machine, where each person living there is a nut/bolt of the machine; there is always going to be plenty of nuts and bolts going in and out of London, so there is no good reason why London will ever come to a halt.

I have some swampland in Florida I'd like to sell you.

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I thought it was widely accepted that it was overseas investors keeping London prices up?

That's recently become a new HPC orthodoxy, but the actual source was an article about commercial property and million pound plus home, not normal residential property. It's not really relevant to the normal London market.

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That's recently become a new HPC orthodoxy, but the actual source was an article about commercial property and million pound plus home, not normal residential property. It's not really relevant to the normal London market.

I was at a few commerical auctions down in london - seems dominated by Asian money right now and they're making silly bids for some lots, ending up with around 4% yields.

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I was at a few commerical auctions down in london - seems dominated by Asian money right now and they're making silly bids for some lots, ending up with around 4% yields.

Rude not too, after all its the banks money what is there to lose.

When the Bankers are W4nkers then its hardly suprising that the public will take advantage of them.

Give it 5 years, and the City will be full of old gits brought out of retirement on massive salaries to clean up the mess left behind by the here today gone tommorow society.

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As for London Prices never going down...................I wish I could have a pound for every fool I have met who thinks that way.

I looked over a 4 Bed House in Fairholt Street Knightsbridge in 95, 350K requiring a refurb.

A 4 Bed New Penthouse flat with balcs to each room, Lounge 35ft by 35ft with a huge circular window feature standing 20ft high. Underground parking, in BishopsBridge Road Paddington, 285K 1995.

Property in London doesnt just go down, it tankse beyond all recognition. Ask the Japanese, they could tell you a few stories about London Property.

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  • 301 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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