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Realistbear

Thursday On The F T S E Looks Pleasant

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http://uk.finance.yahoo.com/q?s=^DJI

DJ INDUSTR AVERAGE (DJI:^DJI)

Index Value: 10,816.76

Trade Time: 9:02PM

Change: 110.62 (1.03%)

Prev Close: 10,706.14

Open: 10,706.78

Day's Range: 10,698.85 - 10,816.76

52wk Range: 10,098.20 - 11,709.10

Volume: 353,088,128

Contrarian market where bad news is good and good is bad. Today's unexpectedly large jump in inflation confirmed further IR hikes and yet both the DOW and teh $ behaved as if the news was the other way around.

FTSE should see a mild bounce tomorrow of around 50 points. But then again maybe not as this is now contrarian market... :blink:

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True... high US CPI with the inevitable IR hike resulted in a weaker dollar. I saw that coming. :ph34r:

Edited by tahoma

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True... high US CPI with the inevitable IR hike resulted in a weaker dollar. I saw that coming. :ph34r:

Latest:

1 Euro =

0.6837 1.2596

Its the pound that is soaring. Dollar still ok against the Euro. Gordon must have the CABLE Forex boys all hypnotised.

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Get your priorities right for Thursday.

England face Trinidad & Tobago at a 17-00 hours kick-off

Don't you reckon the entire country will grind to a halt during the game?

If England win perhaps the feelgood factor may even return to the FTSE.

If England fail to win ....................

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Shares mean nothing, all they show is how the global economy is doing. Has little to do with the average worker in the UK. After all most of us don't have pensions as we can't afford them and our mortgages are straight repayment. Large companies simply get the jitters when global growth slows and as a result people in the markets panic.

Whats would be more sensible would be to give us a daily record of unemployment and wages. For example i read a report somewhere that unemployment is now up to 2 million and rising, these figures matter more then the daily FSTE.

House prices reflect on what the average person can afford to borrow, based on interest rates etc. Rising unemployment and the prospect of rising inflation will effect house prices.

What worries me about the UK is that we rely so heavily on the products we buy being cheap. Unfortunately that means the people selling and making them get paid peanuts. Very much like the USA where the service sector has crippling wages. If we had to pay a fair price for a product then we would buy less and the UK economy would simply go into melt down.

Capitalism is simply flawed as it relies heavily on growth, such growth can not be sustained without destroying our planet.

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What is the deal with the strong pound. I really can't figure that one out at all. Everyone else is hiking interest rates except us yet the pound is still up there.

Can anyone explain that one to me?

As the Bank of Japan moves towards hiking rates. now is the best time so far this Millenium to buy Yen and Sell british pounds !

or rather dont do it yet but ready your orders in order to jump on the bandwagon as we fly back down through 200 Yen

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http://uk.finance.yahoo.com/q?s=^DJI

FTSE should see a mild bounce tomorrow of around 50 points. But then again maybe not as this is now contrarian market... :blink:

Amazing insight Realistbear, how do you do it (Look at the spread bet quote after American close that is) LOL! Why don't you keep us informed what the spread bet price is during the day - every second - as well! LOLO!

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As soon as the FTSE goes up a bit, im out of shares. Its too bumpy at the moment, i've learned my lesson that there are far more intelligent people than me making money from the stock market :)

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Amazing insight Realistbear, how do you do it (Look at the spread bet quote after American close that is) LOL! Why don't you keep us informed what the spread bet price is during the day - every second - as well! LOLO!

We are up 61 on the FTSE which is more in line with what you would expect following a rally in the DOW. I do not trust this market with any investments other than short term cash plays. The UK, EU and US are in the same boat with oil induced inflation and an economy that could easily tip into recession if rates move too far. On the other hand, if rates do not move far enough the oil induced inflation spreads to general inflation and that is the worst possible scenario. My bet is on a recession which means the stock markets may have another 10% to go on the downside before moving into a rangebound scenario.

The Fed have made it clear that they are going to hike rates at least once more and that a .50% basis point rise in one go is not on the cards. In other words, they have a couple more .25% hikes in mind. Ben knows that the housing market in the US is already headed down as all 12 Fed regional banks just reported a slowing market (Texas reported a slightly more positive housing market). I believe he will sacrifice the "frothy" markets as this was already going to happen on Al's watch. How does that translate to the UK? Ditto, although Gordon will have to be dragged kicking and screaming to the point of having to hike the rates.

Bottom line: a few more hikes in the US, EU and UK followed by a recession that will be deeper this side of the Atlantic. The Stockmarkets will probably see another 10% dissappear by the end of the summer. I see Gold dropping below $500 and remaining there for quite awhile unless something dramatic happens such as WW3 or the Bird Flu and then its anyone's guess. Best investment: US short term bonds/cash (maybe Yen if you are a gambler). Sterling cannot continue to be the most overvalued currency in the world as it is now--even against the Euro. Further deterioration in the employment numbers and the HPC should take care of sterling's problem. The dollar cannot sink too far as it will make recession this side of the Atlantic slip into a depression.

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Here is some contrarian news :

http://today.reuters.co.uk/investing/finan...-SALES-DATA.XML

Sterling moves higher on strong retail sales data

Thu Jun 15, 2006 9:38 AM BST

LONDON, June 15 (Reuters) - Sterling spiked higher against the euro and the dollar on Thursday after UK retail sales rose at a faster than expected annual pace in May, supporting the view that interest rates could be hiked this year.
Retail sales rose 4.0 percent on the year -- above a forecast for 3.6 percent rise. The monthly increase, at 0.5 percent, was in line with forecasts.

So more borrow and spend in the Miracle Economy strenthens sterling against world currencies? And IR hikes maybe later in the year when everyone else has already been hiking? Foolish currency traders who has betwitched you?

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Here is some contrarian news :

http://today.reuters.co.uk/investing/finan...-SALES-DATA.XML

Sterling moves higher on strong retail sales data

Thu Jun 15, 2006 9:38 AM BST

LONDON, June 15 (Reuters) - Sterling spiked higher against the euro and the dollar on Thursday after UK retail sales rose at a faster than expected annual pace in May, supporting the view that interest rates could be hiked this year.
Retail sales rose 4.0 percent on the year -- above a forecast for 3.6 percent rise. The monthly increase, at 0.5 percent, was in line with forecasts.

So more borrow and spend in the Miracle Economy strenthens sterling against world currencies? And IR hikes maybe later in the year when everyone else has already been hiking? Foolish currency traders who has betwitched you?

Just people getting the beer in for the world cup. Will be down 1%+ for this month!

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We are up 61 on the FTSE which is more in line with what you would expect following a rally in the DOW.

er, I was joking .... couldn't you tell?

By the way, love comments about market no good other than for short term cash plays. Why is it that when the market moves 600 points in 7 months that is a good market , but whan it moves the same amount in 1 month it's time to shut up shop?

Long term prognostications aren't my thing. I just know fear when I smell it

I'm curious as to what value you think you are providing with your daily SM cut and pastes?

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  • 341 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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