Time To Calm Down

[Robbrent]

Very few people doubt that there'll be an IR rise. There have been several over the last few years, and several cuts. What's contentious is how big they have to get to affect people. There are bears on this site throwing their furry hats in the air at the prospect of a 0.25% rise.

LOL!

2,3,4% yes, you'll see the pain. A quarter, a half a percent is nothing.

To me o.25% is F all my mortgage is only small, but many are up to their necks as it is, I have heard (and know 2 people) of so much dodgy mortgage dealing with all this self cert nonsence

[Guest]

Also about sentiment.

[return of the dev]

There is likely to be a raise, but the odds are against anything higher than 0.5% by the end of the year. We need 5+ before we'll see the affect building up that we all want.

[boom_and_bust]

There is likely to be a raise, but the odds are against anything higher than 0.5% by the end of the year. We need 5+ before we'll see the affect building up that we all want.

Hi,

To cause a sudden, sharp crash, I think you will need rates around 7% or more. That is not as impossible as you might think. Despite the pressures of the ERM in the late eightees - early nintees when rates spiraled, there were next to no 'professional' economists predicting the spike in rates and deepening of the recession that was already in place at that time. That is why the market went pop, people didn't see it coming even though the whole economic horizon did all seem a bit stange at the time.

The affect of a .25% raise will be far harder on industry and the exchanges. Ultimately, that affects everyone. The steps should have been taken earlier. The current fear of inflation in world economies (UK apart Ho!Ho! ) was sparked by the visible destruction and breakdown of economies and society of the inflationary and stagflationary era's of the seventies and early eightees. The easing of monetary policy, on the run up to an election last year, was precisely the wrong move to make. But hey ho!

Come on Eng-er-land!!

Edited June 14, 2006 by boom_and_bust

[padawan]

Sorry to have to piss on you bonfire again guys, but you won't see a rate rise.

http://investing.reuters.co.uk/Investing/F...RLING-CLOSE.XML

"LONDON, June 14 (Reuters) - Sterling hit a one-week high against the dollar and rose versus the euro on Wednesday, as a run of strong inflation data this week revived talk of a possible hike in British interest rates.

Against the dollar, sterling extended gains in afternoon trade after a stronger than expected U.S. core inflation reading sparked fears that U.S. interest rates may be raised too far, hurting the economy.

Annual average earnings growth in Britain picked up to 4.4 percent in the three months to April -- its highest in a year, but a touch below the consensus forecast of 4.5 percent.

The release comes after data earlier in the week showed consumer prices and producer output prices came in above expectations in May, with the CPI rising above the Bank of England's 2 percent target."

[keepwatching]

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[Robbrent]

people didn't see it coming even though the whole economic horizon did all seem a bit stange at the time.

I remember it well, I also remember loads of people telling me it was different this time like it is every time!