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http://www.signonsandiego.com/news/busines...1b14prices.html

Other indicators point to housing market that has weakened somewhat after boom

By Roger M. Showley

UNION-TRIBUNE STAFF WRITER

June 14, 2006

San Diego County housing prices took their biggest-ever spring stumble last month as the median sales price fell to $490,000, down $15,000 from the previous month.
Among significant decreases in the new category was a 60.3 percent drop in Rancho Bernardo's 92127 ZIP code area, where prices dropped from a median $1.2 million on 29 homes in May 2005 to $491,250 on 66 homes this May.
For newly built homes, condos and condo conversions, the median dropped from $495,500 in April to $424,000 in May, the second largest drop in that category since DataQuick began its record keeping in 1988. January saw a $104,000 drop from December.

60.3% down seems about right for a market that has risen by 120% over 6 years. I wonder how much houses in the UK will drop when IR rates move up and the magic has gone out of HPI?

Edited by Realistbear

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http://www.signonsandiego.com/news/busines...1b14prices.html

Other indicators point to housing market that has weakened somewhat after boom

By Roger M. Showley

UNION-TRIBUNE STAFF WRITER

June 14, 2006

San Diego County housing prices took their biggest-ever spring stumble last month as the median sales price fell to $490,000, down $15,000 from the previous month.
Among significant decreases in the new category was a 60.3 percent drop in Rancho Bernardo's 92127 ZIP code area, where prices dropped from a median $1.2 million on 29 homes in May 2005 to $491,250 on 66 homes this May.

60.3% down seems about right for a market that has risen by 120% over 6 years. I wonder how much houses in the UK will drop when IR rates move up and the magic has gone out of HPI?

If the May 2005 data includes two $10,000,000 mansions then the market has not moved.

This is the crux of the rightmove thread where £50 and £100 million homes were falsely being listed ahead of floatation

Edited by ?...!

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If the May 2005 data includes two $10,000,000 mansions then the market has not moved.

This is the crux of the rightmove thread where £50 and £100 million homes were being listed ahead of floatation

Looks like the May 2005 data included 29 houses compared with 66 sales in 2006--a much larger sample.

Whatever it is, the fear factor is what counts and the SD Union is a widely read newsource in that part of the US. Roger Showley, the writer, is an aquaintance of mine and I have supplied him with bear news from time to time. In fact, I was able to persuade him to start reporting on current trends in the market over a year ago instead of the usual YoY tripe!

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If the May 2005 data includes two $10,000,000 mansions then the market has not moved.

This is the crux of the rightmove thread where £50 and £100 million homes were falsely being listed ahead of floatation

Not so. In the US they are much more happy to quote the median price (i.e. the middle price) rather than the arithmetic mean (which is easily skewed by large outliers).

I think this gives US data a lot more credibility than a lot of the stats we are fed here in the UK.

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?...!

I understand Rightmove claim in the editors notes to their press release to remove unrepresentative houses from their sample.

http://www.rightmove.co.uk/pdf/p/hpi/House...ex15May2006.pdf

At the end

"This month 13,804 houses have been excluded due to being anomalies."

Of course the question would be how they choose to exclude. This could be a simple standard deviation model or something more hands on.

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Not so. In the US they are much more happy to quote the median price (i.e. the middle price) rather than the arithmetic mean (which is easily skewed by large outliers).

I think this gives US data a lot more credibility than a lot of the stats we are fed here in the UK.

The main thing is that however you measure it, a sample of 29 or 66 homes is far too small to be statistically relevant.

Overall it's clear that prices are falling there, especially in new-builds, but this 60% fall is just a statistical irrelevance based on a tiny sample size.

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I wonder what's happening in the Rancho Relaxo zip code.

Sounds like there were sales of some >1m properties and fewer this year and so the median has dropped. a case of damned lies and statistics.

ex. sale: 200k, 1,500k, 1,600k. median 1,500k

house prices increase

sales 300k, 400k, 500k, 1,600k, 1,800k. median: 500k.

but median is lower.

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?...!

I understand Rightmove claim in the editors notes to their press release to remove unrepresentative houses from their sample.

http://www.rightmove.co.uk/pdf/p/hpi/House...ex15May2006.pdf

At the end

"This month 13,804 houses have been excluded due to being anomalies."

Of course the question would be how they choose to exclude. This could be a simple standard deviation model or something more hands on.

It's a standard deviation model and includes terraced houses listed for tens of millions of pounds. See the sticky thread, although it's too long to read now.

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San Diego County housing prices took their biggest-ever spring stumble last month as the median sales price fell to $490,000, down $15,000 from the previous month

The above is perhaps more relavant as it is based on the median of all sales accross the county--a huge sample.

Rancho Bernado (RB) is an upscale part of San Diego famous for its planning restrictions against fast food restaurants and billboards etc. Lots of golf courses. My know it all sister-in-law bought one of the condo conversions in that area about 3 years ago and kept telling my wife and I to buy one to get in before the price went up. These are apparently the source of the huge 60% drop in that area. Condo conversions are basically old apartments converted into condos. They are a sign of a tired market. A two bedroom probably peaked at around 400k. My sister-in-law bought in at around 240 I believe so she should be sitting on a small loss about now. If she had bought low and sold high she could have pocketed a nice $160 k profit sat out a year or so and bought back in mortgage free. STRing in style.

It's a standard deviation model and includes terraced houses listed for tens of millions of pounds. See the sticky thread, although it's too long to read now.

I suppose the ASA never caught up with Rightmove? Someone ought to get a friendly EA to post a ten billion pound flat and see what happens to the stats the following month as I don't believe they remove overweighted samples! I have noticed that Rightmove is hardly ever mentioned by anyone now--even the BBC have dropped their references to them. All credibility gone no doubt.

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  • 337 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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