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Charles_Darke

It's O K Dear, It's Only An Asset Bubble

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I think some people on here are getting a bit hysterical about generations of people becoming serfs to a new generation of land barons.

There's no doubting that house prices are high. But you still need to look at fundamentals either in terms of affordability or house prices/earnings. The market will correct eventually (although not necessarily through a crash). Possibilities include:

- House price crash

- Wage inflation relative to stagnant housing

- Increased supply of housing

If nothing else corrects the income/cost ratio, the increased supplying should eventually. Unlike gold, we can build more houses easily. The cost in time and effort to physically build a house decreases with technology and cheap labour.

Edited by Charles_Darke

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Guest Bart of Darkness
would this be a good time to mention NIMBY BOOMERS ?

It's always a good time Fred.

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..these are not just ordinary boomers....

..they are new M&S trade union dipped back garden grown boomers.

covered in a rich nimby squandered state services sauce....

[fade out albertross]

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- House price crash

- Wage inflation relative to stagnant housing

- Increased supply of housing

- House price crash

Depends on your definition of a crash.

Prices WILL drop at least 30% from ceiling price. The times scale I DO NOT KNOW????

I think the word crash is mis-interpretted at times. The SM has dropped 10% from peak this year, this is defined as crashing, but it has taken some time. I prefer to use the word CORRECTION. It will correct, lender criteria WILL be tightened. Even if you wanted to buy 30 BTL's the banks will NOT lend you the money!

- Wage inflation relative to stagnant housing

We know that wage inflation is getting capped by Flash Gordon. 2% per annum would require at least 10-12 years. The market CANNOT exist with 12 years of stagnation. Also, you either believe it or you dont, but I feel we are heading for recession! I am f*cked if Im going into my boss and demanding more money when the chances are they will RELEASE staff!!!

- Increased supply of housing

This is such an urban myth!!!! There is LOAD OF HOUSING!!! FFS Liverpool has been OVERBUILT. I have seen one project where they seen a gap between 2 commercial properties (maybe 50ft and 250feet back) and are building 70 luxury apartments!!! The work on this has stopped in the last few weeks, and I have a GUT feeling that this project will NOT be finished!

Once all the BTL brigade get OUT and release the FTB's properties there will be plenty for everyone. If the government wanted to do something about the so-called lack of properties, then they should stop MULTIPLE home ownership.

Look at history mate and you will see what is going to happen. The only difference this time is that it will be bigger! With other countries around the world going through the same problems we are not insulated from risk, as GB would make you believe.

Simple MATH!!!

CHEAP CREDIT=BUY

NO CHEAP CREDIT=SELL

TB

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I think some people on hear are getting a bit hysterical about generations of people becoming serfs to a new generation of land barons.

There's no doubting that house prices are high. But you still need to look at fundamentals either in terms of affordability or house prices/earnings. The market will correct eventually (although not necessarily through a crash). Possibilities include:

- House price crash

- Wage inflation relative to stagnant housing

- Increased supply of housing

If nothing else corrects the income/cost ratio, the increased supplying should eventually. Unlike gold, we can build more houses easily. The cost in time and effort to physically build a house decreases with technology and cheap labour.

How does "increased supply of housing" solve the problem without a price correction? I assume that you mean that increased supply will decrease price, but it's a bit confusing for you to list that factor alongside as what looks like an alternative.

Billly Shears

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"Prices WILL drop at least 30% from ceiling price. The times scale I DO NOT KNOW????"

Presumably if it has not dropped by your very precise 30% (real or inflation adjusted by the way?) in 2 or 10 years, you have covered yourself by saying you don't not know when it will drop by 30%? Not much help or use is it? Presumably 30% just happens to be the drop you need to buy the house you want.

Not that I do not hope you are correct... :)

Edited by Scooter

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I think some people on hear are getting a bit hysterical about generations of people becoming serfs to a new generation of land barons.

There's no doubting that house prices are high. But you still need to look at fundamentals either in terms of affordability or house prices/earnings. The market will correct eventually (although not necessarily through a crash).

I've got to agree with this. I've read some posts that seem to think the BTL brigade are capable of buying up every property that comes up for sale and will eventually own us all. This is clearly B0llox.

While there may be a strong BTL presence, especially in cities like Manchester, Liverpool and Leeds, and of course in London, outside these areas it really isn't an issue. Most BTL is concentrated in flat developments not in the family housing market which seems to attract flippers ratther than BTL.

I live in a suburb just outside Manchester. Yes - there are flats being thrown up and new housing and some of these will be bought by BTL - BUT there is loads of housing around - flats/family homes and starter homes - all for sale with not a sniff of a BTL in sight.

I have looked into moving to a larger rented house and TBH I have struggled to find any decent houses for rent in my area.

BTL is popular but it isn't going to replace FTB - FTB have been pushed out of the market by high asking prices and while BTL may have helped push these prices up (although I have my doubts about this) they are not buying the type of property that FTB tradtionaly bought in my area.

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"Prices WILL drop at least 30% from ceiling price. The times scale I DO NOT KNOW????"

Presumably if it has not dropped by your very precise 30% (real or inflation adjusted by the way?) in 2 or 10 years, you have covered yourself by saying you don't not know when it will drop by 30%? Not much help or use is it? Presumably 30% just happens to be the drop you need to buy the house you want.

Not that I do not hope you are correct... :)

I don't think TB was offering a guarantee anyway :lol::lol:

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While there may be a strong BTL presence, especially in cities like Manchester, Liverpool and Leeds, and of course in London, outside these areas it really isn't an issue. Most BTL is concentrated in flat developments not in the family housing market which seems to attract flippers ratther than BTL.

Not true, here in Blackpool, the FTB market has been taken over by BTL, so much so that most FTB homes are beyond the reach of FTB's so it is a big issue here, and I suspect many other places

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I don't think TB was offering a guarantee anyway :lol::lol:

I am...

28 days advice back, if you are not happy with the cr@p I spout.

If someone offers you this advice in a more bearish way, I will not only match it - BUT BEAT IT!!!

I might even offer 100 words TALK BACK on completion.

Anyways :)

I think the BOTTOM will be about 30% off ceiling price unless IR's go DEAD HIGH and it may be more or stay below 6%

TB

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"Prices WILL drop at least 30% from ceiling price. The times scale I DO NOT KNOW????"

Presumably if it has not dropped by your very precise 30% (real or inflation adjusted by the way?) in 2 or 10 years, you have covered yourself by saying you don't not know when it will drop by 30%? Not much help or use is it? Presumably 30% just happens to be the drop you need to buy the house you want.

Not that I do not hope you are correct... :)

what in the name of christ are you wittering on about.

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Credit is being withdrawn. However, as I have pointed out before, the credit market has polarised in favour of investors with huge equity, and large taxation breaks.

As credit is tightened, first time buyers will find homes more unaffordable. Credit will be denyed to them, and they will be forced to rent for longer.

Tighter credit will increasingly seek out investors with pricing power (rents), and the huge additional advantage of significant legal changes and favourable taxation treatment through a number of schemes, which amounts to these investors having access to a lower cost of financing.

This is not the first time under mass immigration that the credit market has polarised in this way, and moved towards investors and away from ordinary homebuyers. Pre-1915 - under far less massive immigration - nearly everyone in the UK rented for life.

Credit was only extended to investors, and was hard to get for workers.

In just 24 months time, you will have to report your movements to a register everytime you move landlord, or face a hefty fine.

Your existance will be owned by the state. (This is a fundemental change from a citizen not being a possession of the state(crown), a cornerstone of english law for nearly 1000 years since magna carta).

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If someone offers you this advice in a more bearish way, I will not only match it - BUT BEAT IT!!!

House prices will fall so far that pound shops will end up selling them in two or three house packs for £1.

Billy Shears

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Credit is being withdrawn. However, as I have pointed out before, the credit market has polarised in favour of investors with huge equity, and large taxation breaks.

As credit is tightened, first time buyers will find homes more unaffordable. Credit will be denyed to them, and they will be forced to rent for longer.

Tighter credit will increasingly seek out investors with pricing power (rents), and the huge additional advantage of significant legal changes and favourable taxation treatment through a number of schemes, which amounts to these investors having access to a lower cost of financing.

This is not the first time under mass immigration that the credit market has polarised in this way, and moved towards investors and away from ordinary homebuyers. Pre-1915 - under far less massive immigration - nearly everyone in the UK rented for life.

Credit was only extended to investors, and was hard to get for workers.

In just 24 months time, you will have to report your movements to a register everytime you move landlord, or face a hefty fine.

Your existance will be owned by the state. (This is a fundemental change from a citizen not being a possession of the state(crown), a cornerstone of english law for nearly 1000 years since magna carta).

A valid observation Brainclamp but unfortunately you have a very selective use of historical fact a time.

The reason most working class people rented in the 'olden days' was because they couldn't get credit - they couldn't get credit because they didn't own property - they didn't own property because they couldn't vote for a society that treated them equally - they couldn't vote because they didn't own property ......etc etc. Unless we are all about to be disenfranchised I doubt we will return to a property owning class with everyone else renting.

You only have to go back 15 years to see a time when home owners were favoured by mortgage lenders and it was very unusual to get a BTL mortgage.

BTL are are not as loyal as home owners who will try anything to hold onto their property (including paying the mortgage!). When the sh1t hits the fan (and the BTL no longer have equity to play with) I think the banks will tighten up on BTL first and return to favouring home owners - just like in the 'olden days'.

P.S I report every move to a 'register' now - it's called the electoral roll

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If someone offers you this advice in a more bearish way, I will not only match it - BUT BEAT IT!!!

House prices will fall so far that pound shops will end up selling them in two or three house packs for £1.

Billy Shears

B@stard!! ;)

TB

Edited by teddyboy

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A valid observation Brainclamp but unfortunately you have a very selective use of historical fact a time.

The reason most working class people rented in the 'olden days' was because they couldn't get credit - they couldn't get credit because they didn't own property - they didn't own property because they couldn't vote for a society that treated them equally - they couldn't vote because they didn't own property ......etc etc. Unless we are all about to be disenfranchised I doubt we will return to a property owning class with everyone else renting.

You only have to go back 15 years to see a time when home owners were favoured by mortgage lenders and it was very unusual to get a BTL mortgage.

BTL are are not as loyal as home owners who will try anything to hold onto their property (including paying the mortgage!). When the sh1t hits the fan (and the BTL no longer have equity to play with) I think the banks will tighten up on BTL first and return to favouring home owners - just like in the 'olden days'.

P.S I report every move to a 'register' now - it's called the electoral roll

The reason workers couldn't access credit was because they had to somehow save and rent, so they were a bad risk to lenders. There was no social safety net, and people had to save to cover illness etc... A landlord had significant legal and political cloat just like today, and was a good credit risk.

You can vote today - for a the same policies!

To compare some government offical forcing you to be iris scanned, fingerprinted and probed with every movement to be monitored or face a £2500 fine is not the same as opting to bo on the electoral register!

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Credit is being withdrawn. However, as I have pointed out before, the credit market has polarised in favour of investors with huge equity, and large taxation breaks.

As credit is tightened, first time buyers will find homes more unaffordable. Credit will be denyed to them, and they will be forced to rent for longer.

Tighter credit will increasingly seek out investors with pricing power (rents), and the huge additional advantage of significant legal changes and favourable taxation treatment through a number of schemes, which amounts to these investors having access to a lower cost of financing.

This is not the first time under mass immigration that the credit market has polarised in this way, and moved towards investors and away from ordinary homebuyers. Pre-1915 - under far less massive immigration - nearly everyone in the UK rented for life.

Credit was only extended to investors, and was hard to get for workers.

In just 24 months time, you will have to report your movements to a register everytime you move landlord, or face a hefty fine.

Your existance will be owned by the state. (This is a fundemental change from a citizen not being a possession of the state(crown), a cornerstone of english law for nearly 1000 years since magna carta).

I am an FTB and credit has not been 'denyed' to me. As far as I am aware, no first buyers in the entire country have been ‘denyed’ credit.

Learn to spell dear chap - it would make your paranoid immigration rants easier to read

They do not achieve their full comedy value if spelt badly

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  • 339 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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