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Smell the Fear

Money Saving Expert

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Two interesting threads over there on house prices:

FTB - should I buy?

Everyone tells him not to. And

House price rises are bad news

Some sensible thoughts on HPI.

Probably because so many of us post on there!

But you're right, these are good threads (particularly the second) which simply highlights the idiotic mentality of the 'HPI is good' brigade...

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Two interesting threads over there on house prices:

FTB - should I buy?

Everyone tells him not to. And

House price rises are bad news

Some sensible thoughts on HPI.

Could the tide finally be turning!

"What is worrying me is a report I just saw on BBC news at Ten. Their economics guy was warning that interest rates are going up around the world, and were likely to go up here as well. He had a big graphics thing saying "interest rates up" and "house prices down".

- a few more news stories like this and the FTB supply will be stop and maybe a few BTL will consider things a bit more carefully.... heres hoping :rolleyes:

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Love it :lol:

If it was on any other channel I would take it with a pinch of salt, but surely the beeb can be trusted?

Yeah, just as much as Nu Liebour can be trusted.

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Two interesting threads over there on house prices:

FTB - should I buy?

Everyone tells him not to. And

House price rises are bad news

Some sensible thoughts on HPI.

You would hope though that on a site called "money saving expert" they wouldnt be encouraging people to mortgage themselves up to the hilt and condemning themselves to a lifetime of trouble! :D

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http://blog.moneysavingexpert.com/

Even Martin is Getting in on the act.

House prices could fall…

Monday June 12th, 2006

It’s true. No argument, house prices could fall. They could also, it need be said, continue to rise. This isn’t about predictions, but about understanding the risk. I was moved to blog about this again (see past blog) having been reading through some forum entries which effectively say “house prices can only ever go up.” We’re in an age where media and especially TV property programmes pump the home ownership dream, but often this misses the financial reality. It simply isn’t true, house prices are a risk-based asset class just like shares, and while the swings tend not to be as wide or as rapid as the stock market, they can, and do, and at some point in the future will happen.

When that will happen no one knows… 1 month, 6 months, 1 year, 10 years or, 20 years. Yes no one knows - many will opine one way or the other, but the only real certainty is there isn’t any certainty. Anyone who tells you they know definitively what will happen is lying. Of course speculation and argument about moves are important to consider, but always remember they are only that.

Let’s make this plain. Owning a house is great, but no necessity. If you’re buying a house to live in, the fact you won’t need to pay rent really does help the equation. Yet there’s no need to starve to do it. Your overall finances are more important, make sure you can afford the house and definitely don’t overstretch yourself – if you think it may be a little much, take a step back and pause, don’t hurt yourself to get a house. Better to wait a little until you’re secure.

Remember renting isn’t a crime. Of course in the perceived market where house prices constantly rise, renting is a disaster, but if house prices plummet, the renters would’ve been right. And no one knows what the future holds.

If you’re still unconvinced or perhaps using the “yes, house prices may drop but Hampstead/Wilmslow/Hull (delete as applies to you) never drops” then think again. I remember the talk about shares during the year 2000, when it was said “there won’t be a collapse in internet shares, the market has had a fundamental shift and revaluation”, but we all remember the dot com crash. Property just isn’t as safe as houses.

Now I’m not suggesting anyone panic or sell. Just that you don’t make decisions believing that having a home is the be-all and end-all. There’s no prediction of a crash, a fall, or even a flatline, just that when planning your finances you should take this possibility into account.

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Could the tide finally be turning!

"What is worrying me is a report I just saw on BBC news at Ten. Their economics guy was warning that interest rates are going up around the world, and were likely to go up here as well. He had a big graphics thing saying "interest rates up" and "house prices down".

- a few more news stories like this and the FTB supply will be stop and maybe a few BTL will consider things a bit more carefully.... heres hoping :rolleyes:

The video of Merv and Ewan

http://news.bbc.co.uk/nolavconsole/ukfs_ne..._wm_5073878.stm

yeah they just played what he said on 909 about 1/2 an hour ago

the economics editor is called Ewan Davis

_38651971_evan_davis_by58x55.jpg

Heres what he said in 2003, its not new news

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/2625061.stm

Edited by notanewmember

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It's days like this that all my spent on hpc worthwhile.

We've had false dawns before, but you can hardly round the fact now - global IRs are heading up.

Likes like Evan has waited till the key juncture to nail his colours to the mast more obviously.

HPC and MSE will be flooded before long.

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IR have been 'high' in New Zealand for a long time - are houseprices down?

Maybe the long time high rates stability has created a balanced equilbrium?

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It seems to me that it doesnt really matter what the actual % figure is, it just depends on what the rate does relative to where you started ie. what you could afford at the time.

Eg. - I reckon its far more serious a situation if rates rise from 4.5% to say 6%

than if rates were already 10% and rose to 11.5%.

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IR have been 'high' in New Zealand for a long time - are houseprices down?

My guess is the NZ market has been subject to foreign speculation, laxer lending, and other factors which push up prices apart from lower Interest Rates.

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hmm do they have massive debts over there?

Nope about 9K in sterling per head (total household debt / total population)

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Nope about 9K in sterling per head (total household debt / total population)

thats not bad, maybe they all went out and bought frugal ford fiestas, and drink cheap XXXX

Whats our debt per head in comparison....? :o

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  • 336 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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