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I Told You So

Roger Bootle

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Poor old Roger, first he sticks his neck out and claims IR will fall to 3%ish then he withdraws his prediction of a 20% HPC.

Moving forward he has now accepted rates wont fall and could rise and that there may be falls in asset prices.

Is he?

a) a great economist

B) someone who has landed himself a prime column in a national newspaper based on a friendly persuasive personality but essentially no grasp of economics.

I know what im going for and I really think whoever controls the strings in the media should put him out of his misery.

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Poor old Roger, first he sticks his neck out and claims IR will fall to 3%ish then he withdraws his prediction of a 20% HPC.

Moving forward he has now accepted rates wont fall and could rise and that there may be falls in asset prices.

Is he?

a) a great economist

B) someone who has landed himself a prime column in a national newspaper based on a friendly persuasive personality but essentially no grasp of economics.

I know what im going for and I really think whoever controls the strings in the media should put him out of his misery.

Are there any better economists? I did read a newspaper article some years ago saying that when you look at their performance over the long term, economists (the pundit variety) generally didn't do very well.

You always get the few who "predicted this" or "predicted that" because if you're predicting up, down, or stagnant, you're going to be right some of the time. But is there anyone shown to be right sufficiently frequently to show that their predictions should be taken note of?

Billy Shears

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Poor old Roger, first he sticks his neck out and claims IR will fall to 3%ish then he withdraws his prediction of a 20% HPC.

Moving forward he has now accepted rates wont fall and could rise and that there may be falls in asset prices.

Is he?

a) a great economist

B) someone who has landed himself a prime column in a national newspaper based on a friendly persuasive personality but essentially no grasp of economics.

I know what im going for and I really think whoever controls the strings in the media should put him out of his misery.

I've never rated Bootle so I'll go for your latter option.

I've heard of rats leaving a sinking ship, but he's jumping onto the Titanic just as the iceberg is in view.

.....and to think that companies pay him thousands for his 'expert advice' <_<

Should be put out to pasture.

Remember if economists were so good they would be sunning themselves in tropics rather than writing a piddling newspaper column.

Edited by shermanator

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I shall answer this in t'old Yorkshire way

The guys a complete to55er and has got every prediction he has ever made wrong. He should look for another job as Gary Glitters publicist or the Met office.

ALLEDGEDLY (How I wished i'd paid attention)

Edited by eurows

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The crux of his interest rate arguement has been about globalisation lowering inflation (and thus interest rates).

'The death of inflation' etc..

This has been backed up with a measure of inflation that ignores the rising prices of services, essentails and focuses on mp3 players.

However, what has really caused inflation to fall are falling real wages due to mass immigration, something most economists ignore, not falling prices of MP3 players and other tat.

This in combination with the above moneytary delusion of inflation by the BOE, has caused the money supply to be unleashed, and the general reversal of Thatcherism has dropped innovation and productivity, causing the output gap to close.

The immense pain, unemployment, lost lives and vicoius cut backs we undertook as a society under Thatcher, to match real incomes with spending has been reversed and then some. Spending is way out of line with real income generation capacity - dispite millions and millions more low skilled workers.

The output gap - the capacity of the whole economy to supply produce, in line with demand is out of line with moneytary demand, dispite the real deflation in wages of the private sector under an onslaught of mass immigration.

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Are there any better economists? I did read a newspaper article some years ago saying that when you look at their performance over the long term, economists (the pundit variety) generally didn't do very well.

You always get the few who "predicted this" or "predicted that" because if you're predicting up, down, or stagnant, you're going to be right some of the time. But is there anyone shown to be right sufficiently frequently to show that their predictions should be taken note of?

Billy Shears

This is a fundamental issue for me and the reason I joined this forum.

Since joining I have castigated economists and other graphlovers. Time and time again I find thier academic formulaec approach to be lacking. Time and again I have been critiscised for not referring to 'evidence', but herein lies the problem; so called evidence is invariably flawed and based upon at a distance historic stats. One only needs to think about official Government stats on Immigration to instantly understand the massive limitation of official / academic stats.

What is missing is a bit of gut - feel and common sense which cant really be evidenced.

As an example when I purchased for investment in Berlin last year I read some high level reports prepared by the likes of DeutcheBank. They essentially said Berlin / German property would remain stagnant for the forseeable future and was definately not a worthwhile investment. They based this upon if you like. the known universe.

Thier chosen known evidence was floored, backward looking and not insightful. They didnt 'delve below the surface'.

Now I see reported in the FT (10/06) money is pouring into Berlin real estate just as I (a mere thikkie gut feeler) said it would.

Im of course not as intelligent as your average economist or fund manager, but what I do have is a feel for the coal face.

Fund managers as far as Im concerned 'trail the event'. Time and again I see this. To my mind its down to thier over reliance on economists / academics and graphs.

In 2004 on here I said IO was having a major impact upon affordability which meant graphs and stats were redundant. I had no evidence for this other than the best evidence there is - common sense. At that time I was told by the graph lovers I was a muppet and that IO would never take - off.

So how is it Roger Bootle didnt recognise the rise of IO??

I guess he had his head stuck into stats that only reflect previous enviroments.

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  • 301 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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