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Sm Bulls Please Step Up To The Crease

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If someone could please explain why shares are so good now that they've given up the entire gain for the last 12 months I'd appreciate it.

Link to FTSE graph for 1 year to today

It's all too easy to tell us about it when it's up. Please now tell us when it's down so we can understand the logic behind it. With today set to be especially rocky (Nikkei off 4%), you should have some interesting things to say.

Sledgehead? Where are you now?

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Guest wrongmove

If someone could please explain why shares are so good now that they've given up the entire gain for the last 12 months I'd appreciate it.

Link to FTSE graph for 1 year to today

It's all too easy to tell us about it when it's up. Please now tell us when it's down so we can understand the logic behind it. With today set to be especially rocky (Nikkei off 4%), you should have some interesting things to say.

Sledgehead? Where are you now?

Shares are good because you can go short. Probably where SH is now !

I am not sophisticated enough to short, but at least I could sell mine just as this correction started. It took about 5 minutes. Now I am starting to buy back, but much cheaper. :)

The markets are spooked by the threat of inflation leading to IRs. Of course landlords don't mind if IRs rise....... :rolleyes:

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"Shares are good because you can go short."

Exactly.

You can trade in and out at low cost and protect your position with Puts

TTRTR has obviously not seen my "Sell in May" thread where I suggested getting out and buying puts days before the high. There are several thread on GEI which talk about cycles. And thanks to that, I made money from the stock price slide. And have traded in and out a few times since, at very low cost

Well done. Credit where credit is due.

Let's not forget you did call a crash last Oct as well. Anyone who listened then would have lost out even more.

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If someone could please explain why shares are so good now that they've given up the entire gain for the last 12 months I'd appreciate it.

Link to FTSE graph for 1 year to today

It's all too easy to tell us about it when it's up. Please now tell us when it's down so we can understand the logic behind it. With today set to be especially rocky (Nikkei off 4%), you should have some interesting things to say.

Sledgehead? Where are you now?

Volatility is a traders friend just so long as he is on the right side of the market!

If markets don't move you can't profit from them except via earnings. You could have done very well out of the FTSE100 in the last year as long as you exited at the right time. You could have done even better if you changed your long position for a short one at the right time.

Same with gold or any other market. Invest on the right side of the market while it moving and make money.

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I'm not a stock market guru but buying puts does have a downside risk in that you are guaranteed to lose the premium on the put.

Depending on the strike price the premium can be from 1% to maybe 10% of the share price. Also puts often have a short 'lifetime'.

puts work great if you get a sudden slide in price of several % and you buy with a high strike price.

However, surely you are 'buying' the put from some party (the seller) who aims to take your premium and pay out LESS than the premium when/if the option is exercised by the buyer.

In other words, (in laymans terms) you are effectively visiting a 'bookie' when you buy a put option. Sure you can win big at the races on some days, but the 'bookies' are always there for every race. They must be winning more than they are losing.

Or are the put option sellers doing it out of charity?

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I'm not a stock market guru but buying puts does have a downside risk in that you are guaranteed to lose the premium on the put.

Depending on the strike price the premium can be from 1% to maybe 10% of the share price. Also puts often have a short 'lifetime'.

puts work great if you get a sudden slide in price of several % and you buy with a high strike price.

However, surely you are 'buying' the put from some party (the seller) who aims to take your premium and pay out LESS than the premium when/if the option is exercised by the buyer.

In other words, (in laymans terms) you are effectively visiting a 'bookie' when you buy a put option. Sure you can win big at the races on some days, but the 'bookies' are always there for every race. They must be winning more than they are losing.

Or are the put option sellers doing it out of charity?

Move to off topic please.

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"Let's not forget you did call a crash last Oct as well. Anyone who listened then would have lost out even more"

Wrong again, TTRTR.

Go back and look, I forecast a fall in September, positioned for it, and then covered near the low, taking my profits from the fall. I have taken profits from this May/June drop already too. I expect a bounce immanently, and will then position for an August fall in late July, if my current market plan pans out.

It is this trading in and out, which has allowed me to produce very high returns.

Try doing this in property- impossible. Transaction cost would eat you alive.

As I've said many a time, I like property because of consistent growth. This in/out sleepless nights stuff withs shares must be a nightmare. The transaction costs alone teach most people a lesson on why the brokers & bankers have their large yachts (you know the story).

Did you listen to me when I mentioned the prediction of $2,500 gold was a good sign of a bubble?

Have you called gold?

Edited by Time to raise the rents.

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As I've said many a time, I like property because of consistent growth. This in/out sleepless nights stuff withs shares must be a nightmare. The transaction costs alone teach most people a lesson on why the brokers & bankers have their large yachts (you know the story).

Did you listen to me when I mentioned the prediction of $2,500 gold was a good sign of a bubble?

Have you called gold?

He bought gold at $600 not long ago which I think was a mistake. I think gold will slide for a while as the US hikes its rates. Holding onto some physical gold might not be a bad insurance policy. If financial armageddon were to happen, I would imagine the next few years would be the most likely time.

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Well done. Credit where credit is due.

Let's not forget you did call a crash last Oct as well. Anyone who listened then would have lost out even more.

TTRTR - why not come over to GEI?

Contrarians are always welcome.

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He bought gold at $600 not long ago which I think was a mistake. I think gold will slide for a while as the US hikes its rates. Holding onto some physical gold might not be a bad insurance policy. If financial armageddon were to happen, I would imagine the next few years would be the most likely time.

Definitely now that the big yellow stuff is at $588

TTRTR - why not come over to GEI?

Contrarians are always welcome.

No offence, but I thought it was clear that I'm not really interested in shares etc.

I worked in banking & broking in London & we were professional fleecers. I aim not to be fleeced.

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If someone could please explain why shares are so good now that they've given up the entire gain for the last 12 months I'd appreciate it.

All investments will fall as the money supply dries up. Property just takes longer.

The risk is also higher (as DrBubb has already pointed out)...but to illustrate the point: When the flames get to your floor you find the fire-escape has been removed.

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No offence, but I thought it was clear that I'm not really interested in shares etc.

I worked in banking & broking in London & we were professional fleecers. I aim not to be fleeced.

You post quite a bit on here about markets, albeit in relation to HPs.

I suggested it precisely because of your disinterest and contrarian nature.

No matter.

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If someone could please explain why shares are so good now that they've given up the entire gain for the last 12 months I'd appreciate it.

It's all too easy to tell us about it when it's up. Please now tell us when it's down so we can understand the logic behind it. With today set to be especially rocky (Nikkei off 4%), you should have some interesting things to say.

Sledgehead? Where are you now?

shares were expensive at 5000 and nosebleed at 6000. in shares like any other asset market as a purchaser you should cheer a decline in prices rather than an increase in prices because that will allow you to accumulate assets at a much lower price relative to the value that you can reap from them.

lets face it TTRTR if property down your street suddenly fell to lets say 25% of its current value you wouldn't be crying would you? you would be on the phone to your mortgage broker...

of course if you saw the decline coming you could sell your current house and buy it back at a lower price.... like Bubb says the TX costs would still hurt.

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Its all a question of timing. Property is wonderful investment and so are stocks. You just have to follow the golden rule: buy low and sell high.

I bought into the SM after going STM in late 2003. Nice returns for 2.5 years. I got out a few weeks ago just as the market started to look nasty. I took my profits and am now over 90% in cash.

The problem with property is that when buying low and selling high you need more time to get out. Most property investors lose because they wait too long. You have to get out before the top unless you have an accurate gift of prophecy. My fear for property investors now is that they will have to join the rush to get out and profits will evaporate faster than they accumulated as a 10% drop is far worse than a 10% rise--as we mathematicians well know <_<

With profits from property and the SM now in cash they are now waiting for an opportunity to get back in. For stocks--maybe nearer September. For property--the crash phase has a couple of more years to go before its worth looking at anything seriously.

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  • 338 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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