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Years Of Cheap Borrowing About To End

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World economy hits the high street ... wallets could feel the pressure ... MK suggests house prices and economic markets here might be affected by goings-on abroad ... when Merv speaks you should listen ... interest rates may have been too low in recent years ... cheap borrowing = high house prices ... higher interest rates = more expensive borrowing = lower house prices ... we've had the good half of the football game, now we're in for the rubbish second half (lol!)

The message is coming through the mainstream media much more quickly now ... Joe Public you have been warned!!! :blink:

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Same as the Mervyn King speech reported on BBC News 24 earlier? Will find out in a few minutes...

LOL Excellent! "The UK economy is still in good shape but things are not so good in the rest of the world so interest rates will have to go up".

Unfortunately some poorely informed people will probably try to blame Gordon Brown and the Bank of England. :lol:

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World economy hits the high street ... wallets could feel the pressure ... MK suggests house prices and economic markets here might be affected by goings-on abroad ... when Merv speaks you should listen ... interest rates may have been too low in recent years ... cheap borrowing = high house prices ... higher interest rates = more expensive borrowing = lower house prices ... we've had the good half of the football game, now we're in for the rubbish second half (lol!)

The message is coming through the mainstream media much more quickly now ... Joe Public you have been warned!!! :blink:

I can't believe I've just watched that on the BBC :o

if Declan covers it in the morning, should have a few overstretched BTL'ers choking on their meusli :)

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I caught this report and I'm afraid it's another HPC first.

Many have said on here that they'd finally start to condition us for higher rates. Then they'd blame it all on "global issues".

That was the exact gist of the BBC story.

Another pat on the back for HPC!

NDL

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Guest grumpy-old-man

I can't believe I've just watched that on the BBC :o

if Declan covers it in the morning, should have a few overstretched BTL'ers choking on their meusli :)

:lol::lol::lol:

that's just gave me & the wife a good laugh....

just seen the report on the news, very reassuring & the wife actually believes me now that it's all going t1ts up ;)

Edited by grumpy-old-man

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As ever I think we can assume the Gordon Brown blame apportionment method will work.

If it works - "Due to my prudent management of the economy"

If it doesn't - "Due to global pressures beyind my control"

Let's watch him do the wiggle....

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Agreed this is the sort of thing we ve been banging on about for months and months

Now its just a matter of time for the casualties to start rolling in faster and faster

even the bulls can't believe it ! eh, ttrtr ????? :lol:

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Hilarious how Evan Davis spelt things out so that even a child could understand. Then he alluded to cycles. "It's like a game of two halves. We've had the godd low interest rate half. Now we have to accept the rubbish higher rate half."

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BBC... well as they pused it right to the end of the news i wonder how many people will take any notice.... however will be interesting to watch shares, especially builders tomorrow!

Edited by rollercoaster

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I missed the BBC thing due to working hard to pay my taxes but reading that report it doesnt souond THAT bad, what am i missing? ( other than some letters from the posting area that im typing into due to the sh*t lining up of these f*cking adverts)

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Hilarious how Evan Davis spelt things out so that even a child could understand. Then he alluded to cycles. "It's like a game of two halves. We've had the godd low interest rate half. Now we have to accept the rubbish higher rate half."

But property prices NEVER go down...just as England never play sh*te in the 2nd half!

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BBC... well as they pused it right to the end of the news i wonder how many people will take any notice.... however will be interesting to watch shares, especially builders tomorrow!

Two year gilts are already yielding ~5% and interst rate futures are also reflecting tougher times. There are a huge number of short positions in market sboth in th eUK and the US. Yes some BTL diversifiers may well sell into this, but what is needed is a loss of confidence in PROPERTY. That may only happen when higher rates are a de facto, on the ground reality. Share price weakness in the meantime will only make property bulls more smug about the wiseness of their "safe as houses" investments: ie be careful what you wish for. Most folks here would be disappointed with real-falls. They want nominal-falls. It would be a shame if we only saw real-falls due to people propping up their BTL portfolios by selling equities.

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Last time he did a speech like this the MPC made several successive interest rate increases.

Edited by Sparker

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Two year gilts are already yielding ~5% and interst rate futures are also reflecting tougher times. There are a huge number of short positions in market sboth in th eUK and the US. Yes some BTL diversifiers may well sell into this, but what is needed is a loss of confidence in PROPERTY. That may only happen when higher rates are a de facto, on the ground reality. Share price weakness in the meantime will only make property bulls more smug about the wiseness of their "safe as houses" investments: ie be careful what you wish for. Most folks here would be disappointed with real-falls. They want nominal-falls. It would be a shame if we only saw real-falls due to people propping up their BTL portfolios by selling equities.

well i wonder how many of the new BTL brigade actually have any equities to prop up, or expand their portfoiols with? I'm having a week of annual leave this week and had the delight to watch day time TV house renovation trash... it really seems like everyone is into this property thing at the moment. I guess the thing is that developing property is like free money, i.e. the bank finances it for you on cheap IO mortgages, whereas for equities, you actually need something to buy them with in the first place. It's all good so long as there is captal appreciation, but when that stops it doesn't look so attractive anymore. Just how many Beeney shows have there been where BTL'ers / property developers have spent too much, only to be saved by capital appreciation. I believe that when these shows actually start showing people loosing money, then that's when we know the market has really turned.

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Guest

Are you guys lying to me here?

Did this really happen?

You bunch of bug gers better not be lying.

I'm off to watch the telly in a bit.

I can't be certain, and won't believe it until I hear it from the BBC.

:angry:

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well i wonder how many of the new BTL brigade actually have any equities to prop up, or expand their portfoiols with? I'm having a week of annual leave this week and had the delight to watch day time TV house renovation trash... it really seems like everyone is into this property thing at the moment. I guess the thing is that developing property is like free money, i.e. the bank finances it for you on cheap IO mortgages, whereas for equities, you actually need something to buy them with in the first place. It's all good so long as there is captal appreciation, but when that stops it doesn't look so attractive anymore. Just how many Beeney shows have there been where BTL'ers / property developers have spent too much, only to be saved by capital appreciation. I believe that when these shows actually start showing people loosing money, then that's when we know the market has really turned.

I also think that most of these folk wont have anything in equities. In my limited experience the not-so-greta British publich remain extremely suspicious of stocks whereas they still mainatin that property never goes down.

The only people I knoe with stock investments either work in the money markets or were introduced to them through their fathers (who had experiences of the markets themselves). Very few people.

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  • 301 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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