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Guest The_Oldie

BBC are reporting that Mervyn King has given a speech in Edinburgh, where he implied that interest rates will rise and house prices amongst other things may be affected.

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BBC are reporting that Mervyn King has given a speech in Edinburgh, where he implied that interest rates will rise and house prices amongst other things may be affected.

I'm beginning to think imply is all he'll do.

No rate rise until Gordon is firmly PM, and the four serving members of MPC have been promised quangos or the like elsewhere.

btp

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I'm beginning to think imply is all he'll do.

No rate rise until Gordon is firmly PM, and the four serving members of MPC have been promised quangos or the like elsewhere.

btp

I thought the MPC was independent and vote on where to set interest rates - Mervyn can't do much if they're all voting to keep them on hold. You imply Government interference.

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Or the Labour party oust Gordon in a concocted scandal involving a goat, a Swedish prostitute, and a copy of Adobe PhotoShop, whereupon Euan Blair becomes Prime Minister in a surprise move, leading to the installation of Big Brother cameras in number 10, and Tony and Cherie becoming the New Ozzie And Sharon Osbourne.

Edited by megaflop

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The text of the speech is here. He is non-commital on interest rates and doesn't mention the housing market at all. Waste of space.

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Guest The_Oldie

And now for the good news....

BBC News 24 have just reported that house prices "Rose 5.1% in April". I presume they meant annual increase, but they stated, and their banner read "Prices rose 5.1% in April"

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And now for the good news....

BBC News 24 have just reported that house prices "Rose 5.1% in April". I presume they meant annual increase, but they stated, and their banner read "Prices rose 5.1% in April"

Report them :angry:

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BBC are reporting that Mervyn King has given a speech in Edinburgh, where he implied that interest rates will rise and house prices amongst other things may be affected.

do you have a link for that please?

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There was mention today on Working Lunch of an Abbey report that buying was cheaper than renting in the long-term in most parts of the UK with a few notable "hotspot" exceptions such as Wales.

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Guest The_Oldie

do you have a link for that please?

No, it was on BBC News 24. They may repeat it later.

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I thought the MPC was independent and vote on where to set interest rates - Mervyn can't do much if they're all voting to keep them on hold. You imply Government interference.

Merv's dealing with a stacked deck, stacked against a rise. I'm sure bubble blower Greenspan's appointment did nothing for his ego.

What exactly are they supposed to be independent of? Responsibility? Blame? The facts?

9 members who all have only the good of the economy at heart, no personal agendas, uninfluenced by offers of peerages, jobs at the treasury, nice seat on the board of a bank somewhere, own little property empire, etc.

I just find it incredibly hard to believe.

btp

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I'm beginning to think imply is all he'll do.

No rate rise until Gordon is firmly PM, and the four serving members of MPC have been promised quangos or the like elsewhere.

btp

unfortunately for gordon et al, there may be such a thing as "honour" among economists and bankers . david smith appears to be abandoning the Nickell theories but merv has never given approval to them... cynics may say that the economists are just turning with the tide, i prefer to believe that they were willing to give Nickell's new models a chance until they were profoundly disproved. which they have been.

"The net acquisition of financial liabilities, which simply refers to the the accumulation of household debt, increased gradually during the mid 1990's but more than doubled from 1998 to 2003. Interestingly enough, the rate at which households accumulated financial assets increased rapidly from exactly the same date, also more than doubling from 1998 to 2003. In a mechanical sense, this is why consumption has not risen as a share of household post-tax income over this period."

nickell goes on to say that:

"we know most of the new debt is secured on houses so a good part of it will be associated with the accumulation of housing assets by individual households":one of nickell's speeches 2005.

to spell it out.. our esteemed govt. believed that household debt was balanced by household aquisition of assets.

but, crucially, to paraphrase merv " debt is real, but house prices are a matter of opinion"

imo we should all chill..enjoy the summer... and watch the nu lab faithful desert their new economic ship..

ellen

Edited by ellenmyfanwy

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And now for the good news....

BBC News 24 have just reported that house prices "Rose 5.1% in April". I presume they meant annual increase, but they stated, and their banner read "Prices rose 5.1% in April"

61.2% a year..

It is possible..

New builds have dropped 12% in the south west..

ouch.. :(

but then another index says that they have gone up to a million.. I know this to be true as I work with people who have been remortgaging their new builds up to a million..

million billion zillion.. all the money in the world..

all of it is in housing.. where else should it be...??

I have two motorcycles.. and a playstation..

I rent, I can move when I want.. can you...

and if I wanted to buy a new build.. they are cheaper now then you paid.. :) (you refers to bull..not the above quoted matey)

good luck

Edited by apom

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Ah, balance. I like your sig too.

Ttrtr...merv is showing amazing independence and balance:

"one risk is that during the fastest three year period of world economic growth for a generation, monetary policy aound the world may simply have been too accommodative"

Merv continues: " The realisation such levels of asset prices were likely to be unsustainable, coupled with a tightening of monetary policy in many countries has injected uncertainty into financial markets"...

and again; " In these circrumstances the Monetary Policy Committee must examine carefully all information, learn, and if necessary, revise it's judgements, and question all recieved wisdom...In other words it must be enlightened".

and finally: " Inflation and independence of The Bank Of England will be crucial to sucessful monetary policy in the future"

honour and balance will out in the end ...

" hope that helps"

ellen

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What I'd like to know is , will the MPC be "enlightened" next month?

i don't know which month will show an increase in interest rates. i do know that the new labour style economists are losing more and more credence with the financial community. it is only a matter of time...chill..enjoy your summer..

spend a tenner on some good steaks..buy a lovely bottle of wine. you are saving a fortune compared to those who have bought housing recently.

ellen

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No, it was on BBC News 24. They may repeat it later.

Yep, its just been on the BBC1 News. Dumbed down to the extent that a 5 year old could understand it...

Merv warns of harder times ahead. Maybe we have had too much cheap credit, he said. The UK economy is good, apparently, but cannot be insulated from what is happening overseas.

Er, yes! That rate cut last year suddenly doesnt look such a good ide does it Merv!

Reporter went on to say - its like a game of 2 halves. The first half is where everything is easy, low interest rates give plentiful credit, and high house prices and high share prices. Now, its time for the second half where nothing goes your way with high interest rates leading to credit tightening and lower house and share prices.

So there you have it. Thanks, BBC.

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Er, yes! That rate cut last year suddenly doesnt look such a good ide does it Merv!

Merv never voted for the cut. He should, however, have voted for a rise the next month or 2 to correct it, but this would've shown an internal battle within the MPC!

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Guest Charlie The Tramp

The UK economy is good, apparently, but cannot be insulated from what is happening overseas.

Yes our wonderful Potemkin economy, consumer led, fuelled by debt, on the back of HPI. ;)

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  • 337 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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