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House Price Survey Reveals Price Drops In London And U K

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http://www.in2perspective.com/nr/2006/06/l...es-momentum.jsp

London's 'mini-boom' loses momentum

By Laurie Osborne, Editor

Published 12th Jun 2006, (a Monday) at 11:00AM

Contrary to seasonal expectations, London's housing market is struggling to get buyers interested, according to the latest Asking Price Index from Home.co.uk.
Despite an overall rise of 0.4% in asking prices for England and Wales, indicating a seasonal boost in seller confidence,
Greater London prices fell by 0.9% in the second quarter of 2006
.
London’'s homeowners may, however, derive comfort that they are not in the
North East which saw a dramatic 4.6% fall over the same period.
The report showed that London'’s 'mini-boom'’ has been highly centralised and appears to have already lost momentum.
In general, asking prices in Greater London continue a two-year, downward trend
.
The fall in asking prices for houses in the North East suggests a significant turning point. Until recently, this regional market had been one of the strongest performers and had not shown a substantial price correction following the 2003/4 property boom.
Asking prices only recently reached a maximum in November, 2005, approximately 17 months after peaking in London.
Price erosion in the North East increases the likelihood of similar falls in Yorkshire, Wales and the North West.
Home.co.uk said that if such corrections occur in these remaining, strong performing regions, and the London and South East market continue to be subdued, the state of the UK housing market will enter "a critical phase." Moreover, such developments are likely to be exacerbated by any rise in interest rates, which several commentators suggest are inevitable.
The severe slowdown in the US housing market, brought about by inflation fighting interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve, presents some difficult decisions for the central banks around the world. The European Central Bank has already followed suit by raising its benchmark interest rate on the 8th June by a quarter point, to 2.75%.
The Home.co.uk Asking Price Index uses current price data, which incorporates the usual discounting activity that takes place as sellers try to attract enquiries.
Conversely, the national, house price index produced by Rightmove records initial asking prices and therefore tends to be indicative of sellers’ aspirations. Comparing the two indices, over the last year, suggests a growing mismatch between sellers’ initial expectations and the price required to attract buyers.
The index signifies a ‘seasonal optimism’ among sellers. Asking prices rose 0.7% in June and 0.4% over this year'’s second quarter, however, the house price trend since June 2005 fell by 1.9%. Scotland and Wales out-performed the rest of the UK with second quarter, asking price increases of 3.8% and 3.1% respectively, followed by East Midlands (+2.2%) and the South West (+2.0%).

Smoke and mirrors illusion and fantasy surrounds house prices these days--all characteristics of a "Miracle Economy" performed by Gordon Brown and his amazing statistics that make losses look like gains and high unemployment look like a rise in jobs. IMO, the above is an accurate relfection of what I am seeing on the ground as I monitor actual prices locally.

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Confirms what we all knew, that houseprices are falling in most parts of the UK, contrary to the BTL posters on this forum who are desperately trying to bolster their personal positions and falling portfolios.

Face it folks houseprices in the UK have turned and are FALLING significantly in every region.

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Confirms what we all knew, that houseprices are falling in most parts of the UK, contrary to the BTL posters on this forum who are desperately trying to bolster their personal positions and falling portfolios.

Face it folks houseprices in the UK have turned and are FALLING significantly in every region.

Yep, roll on the crash, Rightmove +7% YoY, ODPM +5.1% YoY , Hometrack + 1.6%, , Nationwide 4.7%, Halifax 9.1% Land Reg 5.1% FT Index 5.4%.

And one poxy little index (Only three months old), that has no long term data to be able to prove if it does or does not have any correlation to house prices (And at pesent on the little amount of data they have, looks as though it doesn't), is now the bible for the HPC.

Believe this index if you want, but it doesn't make a crash happen.

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Yep, roll on the crash, Rightmove +7% YoY

Rightmove predictions don't mean jack sh**. The others have more bearing!

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The Home.co.uk asking price index is remarkable and unique in that has consistently moved counter to all the others and claimed that the average asking price in the UK back in Oct/2004 was around £240k. :lol:

This graph, previously posted by burnt_before, shows the "agreement" - very clever to have managed to find a piece of paper tall enough to make the comparison.

splinequery3uq.jpg

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Yep, roll on the crash, Rightmove +7% YoY, ODPM +5.1% YoY , Hometrack + 1.6%, , Nationwide 4.7%, Halifax 9.1% Land Reg 5.1% FT Index 5.4%.

And one poxy little index (Only three months old), that has no long term data to be able to prove if it does or does not have any correlation to house prices (And at pesent on the little amount of data they have, looks as though it doesn't), is now the bible for the HPC.

Believe this index if you want, but it doesn't make a crash happen.

Halifax 9.1% :blink:

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Halifax 9.1% :blink:

Yep, but then this is base effects. FWIW in 2000 they had much lower HPI than anyone else.

To be frank they are probably a tad above the game at the moment, HPI is probably running at about 7% (Mainly London and SE driven)

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Yup--the BBC seem to be suggesting that Haliwide see a completley different picture:

http://newsvote.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/5071044.stm

However, the most recent surveys from the Halifax and Nationwide have both suggested that the market came off the boil during May.

Perhaps the BBC are coverting themselves for the crash and don't want to break the news without taking credit for warning the public? There is no way they would include the housefund survey--at least they seem to have ignored Rightmove in recent reports.

This may help to explain the Halifax picture at least:

http://business.timesonline.co.uk/article/...2222093,00.html

However, data from Halifax and Nationwide, suggest that the rate of inflation slipped back last month. Halifax reported a rise of just 0.1 per cent last month.
Martin Ellis, the bank’s chief economist said: "There are signs that housing market activity may be beginning to level out. The pressure on the household sector resulting from higher unemployment and significantly higher household bills, together with the current high level of house prices in relation to earnings, are likely to constrain housing demand and curb house price growth and activity over the remainder of 2006."

The fundamentals are negative for HPI according to Halifax: employment, affordability and real inflation.

Edited by Realistbear

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I think you can discount home.co.uk surveys - not because their methodology is wrong, but because their database contains an awful lot of houses that have already sold or at least gone off the market, when you actually go and look at the individual estate agents sites.

This therefore makes their data set untrustworthy.

Personally, the ones I take most notice of are Land Registry, ODPM and the FT one - unfortunately, they are a bit behind the times but you can't have everything. Rightmove gives an indication of direction, but not the actual figures being acheived. At the moment it still points upwards, which correlates with my own eyesight as to what is happening.

The other important figure to use as a guide to whats going to happen in the future is mortgage lending figures for amount and number of loans approved.

We are now entering the part of the year where house prices tend to stagnate anyway, so I am fully expecting very minor price increases from about now through to feb next year. It doesn't mean its crashing, its just seasonal effects.

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Believe this index if you want, but it doesn't make a crash happen.

Correct. Its the others spinning the market out of control that will make a crash happen.

Yep, but then this is base effects. FWIW in 2000 they had much lower HPI than anyone else.

To be frank they are probably a tad above the game at the moment, HPI is probably running at about 7% (Mainly London and SE driven)

Didn't you see the LR figures for Q1 2006? Greater London down 5.67%.

see: http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/index.php <_<

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LOL, because this site would never spin.

L/R London 1Q06 rose from £289,248 to £306,661 or a rise of £17,413 or 6% on the quarter.

The webmaster should correct the error then on this site.

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Even the BBC published stats concur that houseprices are falling in most regions of the UK, but the King and IMup just can't accept that their BTL portfolios rental receipts no longer cover their loans and their capital gains have probably turned negative......Ouch that hurts.

Why would anyone be a property bull when the market is clearly falling?

Why would the King and IMup spend so much time of the lives underpinning their false arguments of property prosperity on an online forum unless they were trying to protect their fading investments by desperately trying to buoy fading FTB sentiments??

Would you trust your future financial wellbeing on their advice to buy now or else you can never buy again ever ever?

I can't wait to hear the SHITE that they are going to spout next. :D

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  • 301 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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