Chris Parry - Sunday Times: The New Goths Are Coming.

[DabHand]

http://www.timesonline.co.uk/article/0,,2087-2220267.html

This was on front page of the Sunday Times.

Has a long term impact on housing no?

I recently read Neal Asher's "Snow Crash" although somewhat tongue in cheek, it's backdrop has a certain resonance. Extrapolate today's trends and fears for another 10-20 years and wonder what sort of world we will be living in. Sod a 25yr mortgage!

Article in full for the link shy.

Beware: the new goths are coming

Peter Almond

ONE of Britain’s most senior military strategists has warned that western civilisation faces a threat on a par with the barbarian invasions that destroyed the Roman empire.

In an apocalyptic vision of security dangers, Rear Admiral Chris Parry said future migrations would be comparable to the Goths and Vandals while north African "barbary" pirates could be attacking yachts and beaches in the Mediterranean within 10 years.

Europe, including Britain, could be undermined by large immigrant groups with little allegiance to their host countries — a "reverse colonisation" as Parry described it. These groups would stay connected to their homelands by the internet and cheap flights. The idea of assimilation was becoming redundant, he said.

The warnings by Parry of what could threaten Britain over the next 30 years were delivered to senior officers and industry experts at a conference last week. Parry, head of the development, concepts and doctrine centre at the Ministry of Defence, is charged with identifying the greatest challenges that will frame national security policy in the future.

If a security breakdown occurred, he said, it was likely to be brought on by environmental destruction and a population boom, coupled with technology and radical Islam. The result for Britain and Europe, Parry warned, could be "like the 5th century Roman empire facing the Goths and the Vandals".

Parry pointed to the mass migration which disaster in the Third World could unleash. "The diaspora issue is one of my biggest current concerns," he said. "Globalisation makes assimilation seem redundant and old-fashioned . . . [the process] acts as a sort of reverse colonisation, where groups of people are self-contained, going back and forth between their countries, exploiting sophisticated networks and using instant communication on phones and the internet."

Third World instability would lick at the edges of the West as pirates attacked holidaymakers from fast boats. "At some time in the next 10 years it may not be safe to sail a yacht between Gibraltar and Malta," said the admiral.

Parry, 52, an Oxford graduate who was mentioned in dispatches in the Falklands war, is not claiming all the threats will come to fruition. He is warning, however, of what is likely to happen if dangers are not addressed by politicians.

Parry — who used the slogan "old dog, new tricks" when he commanded the assault ship HMS Fearless — foresees wholesale moves by the armed forces to robots, drones, nanotechnology, lasers, microwave weapons, space-based systems and even "customised" nuclear and neutron bombs.

Lord Boyce, the former chief of the defence staff, welcomed Parry’s analysis. "Bringing it together in this way shows we have some very serious challenges ahead," he said. "The real problem is getting them taken seriously at the top of the government."

Ancient Rome has been a subject of serious public discussion this year. Boris Johnson, the Conservative MP and journalist, produced a book and television series drawing parallels between the European Union and the Roman empire. Terry Jones, the former Monty Python star, meanwhile, has spoken up for the barbarians’ technological and social achievements in a television series and has written:

"We actually owe far more to the so-called ‘barbarians’ than we do to the men in togas."

Parry, based in Shrivenham, Wiltshire, presented his vision at the Royal United Services Institute in central London. He identified the most dangerous flashpoints by overlaying maps showing the regions most threatened by factors such as agricultural decline, booming youth populations, water shortages, rising sea levels and radical Islam.

Parry predicts that as flood or starvation strikes, the most dangerous zones will be Africa, particularly the northern half; most of the Middle East and central Asia as far as northern China; a strip from Nepal to Indonesia; and perhaps eastern China.

He pinpoints 2012 to 2018 as the time when the current global power structure is likely to crumble. Rising nations such as China, India, Brazil and Iran will challenge America’s sole superpower status.

This will come as "irregular activity" such as terrorism, organised crime and "white companies" of mercenaries burgeon in lawless areas.

The effects will be magnified as borders become more porous and some areas sink beyond effective government control.

Parry expects the world population to grow to about 8.4 billion in 2035, compared with 6.4 billion today. By then some 68% of the population will be urban, with some giant metropolises becoming ungovernable. He warns that Mexico City could be an example.

In an effort to control population growth, some countries may be tempted to copy China’s "one child" policy. This, with the widespread preference for male children, could lead to a ratio of boys to girls of as much as 150 to 100 in some countries. This will produce dangerous surpluses of young men with few economic prospects and no female company.

"When you combine the lower prospects for communal life with macho youth and economic deprivation you tend to get trouble, typified by gangs and organised criminal activity," said Parry. "When one thinks of 20,000 so-called jihadists currently fly-papered in Iraq, one shudders to think where they might go next."

The competition for resources, Parry argues, may lead to a return to "industrial warfare" as countries with large and growing male populations mobilise armies, even including cavalry, while acquiring high-technology weaponry from the West.

The subsequent mass population movements, Parry argues, could lead to the "Rome scenario". The western Roman empire collapsed in the 4th and 5th centuries as groups such as Ostrogoths, Visigoths, Suevi, Huns and Vandals surged over its borders. The process culminated in the sack of Rome in 455 by Geiseric the Lame, king of the Alans and Vandals, in an invasion from north Africa.

Parry estimated at the conference there were already more than 70 diasporas in Britain.

In the future, he believes, large groups that become established in Britain and Europe after mass migration may develop "communities of interest" with unstable or anti-western regions.

Any technological advantage developed to deal with the threats was unlikely to last. "I don’t think we can win in cyberspace — it’s like the weather — but we need to have a raincoat and an umbrella to deal with the effects," said Parry.

Some of the consequences would be beyond human imagination to tackle. The examples he gave, tongue-in-cheek, include: "No wind on land and sea; third of population dies instantly; perpetual darkness; sores; Euphrates dries up ‘to clear way for kings from the east’; earth’s core opens."

TOP STRATEGIST

Rear Admiral Chris Parry is the armed forces’ chief “blue skies” thinker.

Parry, 52, was educated at the independent Portsmouth grammar school and at Jesus College, Oxford. During the Falklands war in 1982, he was mentioned in dispatches while serving with the Fleet Air Arm on the destroyer HMS Antrim.

Parry is one of Britain’s leading specialists on amphibious warfare. He once commanded the assault ship HMS Fearless, was in charge of amphibious warfare training at Portsmouth naval base and headed a joint British-Dutch taskforce before moving to his post at the Ministry of Defence.

The admiral heads the development, concepts and doctrine centre, set up in 1998 and based at Shrivenham, Wiltshire. It has more than 50 staff and is being expanded to include extra analysts.

***********************************************

Just as an addendum, notice that his MOD dept was set up within one yr of labour coming to power. I can't quite align the wilful neglect of the current govt in dealing with the problems it would be so evidently aware of.

[MarkG]

Well, I think it's pretty clear that Europe is in for some very tough times over the next fifty years: just another reason for not buying a house at today's prices.

And, as you say, NuLab is guilty of making these problems even worse with their appalling record on immigration. Non-assimiliation will inevitably lead to the collapse of the UK in the long term.

[tonytramcar]

I am currently reading a book called "Collapse" by Jared Diamond (published by Penguin) , which examines in detail the reasons behind the collapse of old civilisations (Maya, Vikings, Easter Island) etc., there are many environmental and social parallels with contemporary society , and there are obvious implications for the future. I am only about a third of the way through it, it is proving a very interesting read.

[Robbrent]

I like to remind people that history does repeat it's self, time and time again, we are just another civilisation that is destined to collapse just like all of those before us,

[MarkG]

we are just another civilisation that is destined to collapse just like all of those before us,

Hands up all those who'd have wanted to be in hock for decades for a house in ancient Rome during its collapse?

And remember, what took centuries back then will take decades this time.

Edited June 12, 2006 by MarkG

[RichM]

Hands up all those who'd have wanted to be in hock for decades for a house in ancient Rome during its collapse?

Depends. Does the kitcken have granite surfaces?

[MarkG]

Probably depends on whether the barbarians stole them last time they sacked the city...

[brainclamp]

We are not 'destined' to collapse.

Although you can argue about the details, one thing that is very clear is that the present course is mirroring the general story of the collapse of the Roman empire.

A few decades before western cilivisation collapsed, huge bloated employment and inempt buerocracy by the state, led to the poltical elite creating a population register and id cards, to extract peoples produce for soviet like employment of useless unaccountable public servants, and anyone who owned property was rich. Its central bank continually raised the money supply and kept interest rates low to foster 'economic growth' denying inflation.

Eventually, this led from most people being citizens determining thier own lifes, to being 'owned' by the Roman state and its minons for thier declining produce. As people were increasingly savaged by inflation, a caste system and a police state were enforced.

However, by importing roman technology and ideas there was an food revolution in barberian Germany, about 370AD. This created a very large population explosion in Germany.

Soon there were desperate hordes of uncultured and smelly barberi gathering across the Rhine (406AD).

Mass immigration followed, the huge numbers of the of Germans displaced and overran the roman empire even to North Africa. (rome was soon sacked etc...) Within a few decades of the Rhine border crossing Rome was sacked etc..

To truely bring this home, you need look no further than Britain!

An advanced cilvisation of romano-british started to accept a some of these Germans in 416AD, for 'jobs they would not do'. Word soon spread back in Germany, and waves of immigrants arrived in greater and greater numbers.

By 500AD Anglo Saxon kings ruled England, all Romano-British culture was swept aside. The Romano-British fled to remote parts of the UK, and even other countries to set up places like Brittany. The remaining 'native' population was called 'welsh' which means foreigner in Anglo-Saxon.

There is a massive population boom in the middle east. I don't need to mention the population register and ID cards etc...

[MarkG]

We are not 'destined' to collapse.

Well, that's true: the collapse will certainly be self-inflicted. The barbarians may be at the gates, but the real problem is that as a society we no longer have the will to defend against them... for that would require a belief that our culture is better than theirs, and as we all now know, no culture is any better than any other, it's just a matter of choice.

Unfortunately historical trends are hard to change, and after decades of governments trying to turn Britain into 'happy fluffy world' where everyone is nice to each other and ignores any reality which conflicts with that fantasy, it would take a massive effort to return this country to sanity. Catastrophic collapse is much more likely.

[LTD]

What I'd like to know is, what's a load of stuff about immigration got to do with an expected influx of Marilyn Manson fans? I'm not scared of them, their bark tends to be worse than their bite. Nowhere near as bad as chavs and pikeys.

I'm not averse to a bit of Sisters of Mercy or The Damned. The new stuff doesn't do a lot for me though I have to say.

[MarkG]

What I'd like to know is, what's a load of stuff about immigration got to do with an expected influx of Marilyn Manson fans?

I think you just made my point... someone from the MoD makes serious comments about Europe's inability to defend itself against invasion by vast millions of poor Africans and Arabs who have no interest in political correctness and European pacifist culture, and rather than deal with it you turn it into a joke.

Like it or not, mass immigration is going to be one of the biggest hot issues of the next few decades... joking won't change that.

[RichB]

Always easy to make people afraid of foreigners.

[MarkG]

Always easy to make people afraid of foreigners.

But Britain has precisely the opposite problem. We're so politically correct that we think that all foreigners are happy fluffy little bunnies and all foreign cultures are better than our own.

It's just as naive to believe that all foreigners love us as it is to believe that they're all evil.

[LTD]

I think you just made my point... someone from the MoD makes serious comments about Europe's inability to defend itself against invasion by vast millions of poor Africans and Arabs who have no interest in political correctness and European pacifist culture, and rather than deal with it you turn it into a joke.

...and what should I do? Shoot up my local mosque with an AK47?

Rear Adm Parry sounds like an eminently qualified fellow, but even he cracked a few jokes at the end of the article. Humour is a coping mechanism. Don't be so bloody poe faced all the time.

[Scooter]

Well, I think it's pretty clear that Europe is in for some very tough times over the next fifty years: just another reason for not buying a house at today's prices.

And, as you say, NuLab is guilty of making these problems even worse with their appalling record on immigration. Non-assimiliation will inevitably lead to the collapse of the UK in the long term.

...or civil war to dramatically reverse th flow of immigration.

[Guest Guy_Montag]

What I'd like to know is, what's a load of stuff about immigration got to do with an expected influx of Marilyn Manson fans? I'm not scared of them, their bark tends to be worse than their bite. Nowhere near as bad as chavs and pikeys.

I'm not averse to a bit of Sisters of Mercy or The Damned. The new stuff doesn't do a lot for me though I have to say.

I for one welcome our new goth overlords. Their females can be quite alluring, and, as LTD points out, their music is quite good too.

[DabHand]

I was talking this through with a chap over lunch and he seemed to be of the opinion that the best way of marketing the unmarketable is to allow a problem to develop so that its once unpalatable cure (ID cards, pop control) actually becomes demanded by the general population. Machiavelli eat your heart out.

I find it very difficult to believe that there isnt an understanding of where we are heading by the powers that be. Initially you might think they have nothing to lose, but on the contrary: such upheaval will affect everyone and there's nowt so defensive as those with much to lose.

[RichM]

Even America doesn't seem to have woken up to this, being on the verge on welcoming another 10 million Mexicans into their social security system. All "developed" countries need to focus on hi tech/value economies with a highly educated populous, rather than importing chepa labour. You would have thought they'd have learnt.

[Jimmy James]

Although you can argue about the details, one thing that is very clear is that the present course is mirroring the general story of the collapse of the Roman empire.

Although I can see the parallels between Dubya and Commodus, I'm not too sure that George Bush senior can be compared to Marcus Aurelius.

[Robbrent]

We are not 'destined' to collapse.

Although you can argue about the details, one thing that is very clear is that the present course is mirroring the general story of the collapse of the Roman empire.

A few decades before western cilivisation collapsed, huge bloated employment and inempt buerocracy by the state, led to the poltical elite creating a population register and id cards, to extract peoples produce for soviet like employment of useless unaccountable public servants, and anyone who owned property was rich. Its central bank continually raised the money supply and kept interest rates low to foster 'economic growth' denying inflation.

Eventually, this led from most people being citizens determining thier own lifes, to being 'owned' by the Roman state and its minons for thier declining produce. As people were increasingly savaged by inflation, a caste system and a police state were enforced.

However, by importing roman technology and ideas there was an food revolution in barberian Germany, about 370AD. This created a very large population explosion in Germany.

Soon there were desperate hordes of uncultured and smelly barberi gathering across the Rhine (406AD).

Mass immigration followed, the huge numbers of the of Germans displaced and overran the roman empire even to North Africa. (rome was soon sacked etc...) Within a few decades of the Rhine border crossing Rome was sacked etc..

To truely bring this home, you need look no further than Britain!

An advanced cilvisation of romano-british started to accept a some of these Germans in 416AD, for 'jobs they would not do'. Word soon spread back in Germany, and waves of immigrants arrived in greater and greater numbers.

By 500AD Anglo Saxon kings ruled England, all Romano-British culture was swept aside. The Romano-British fled to remote parts of the UK, and even other countries to set up places like Brittany. The remaining 'native' population was called 'welsh' which means foreigner in Anglo-Saxon.

There is a massive population boom in the middle east. I don't need to mention the population register and ID cards etc...

Well there is history rewritten, according to Gibbon, he put the collapse down to the adoption of Christianity, he had a point, many civilisations have collapse after a shift in religious beliefs, the Old Kingdom in Egypt comes to mind.

But all civilisations collapse, (just as bubbles burst I might add) IMO I think we are on the long slow decline, it's the way of things nothing lasts for ever, we have reached the top, granted there are some improvements to made but not many, the luxury we enjoy today in rather unparalleled in history, and it is generally when we reach these levels that the decline starts. But the west is only a very small part of the world, one day all that will be left of us will dug up by a new time team, I wonder what they will make of us.

[DabHand]

But the west is only a very small part of the world, one day all that will be left of us will dug up by a new time team, I wonder what they will make of us.

A rather snazzy if unconventional hat stand l'll wager.

[Robbrent]

Christianity to atheism? (Not saying either belief is wrong.)

I think you may have hit the nail on the head, there, and no I am not promoting any religion,

[brainclamp]

Well there is history rewritten, according to Gibbon, he put the collapse down to the adoption of Christianity, he had a point, many civilisations have collapse after a shift in religious beliefs, the Old Kingdom in Egypt comes to mind.

But all civilisations collapse, (just as bubbles burst I might add) IMO I think we are on the long slow decline, it's the way of things nothing lasts for ever, we have reached the top, granted there are some improvements to made but not many, the luxury we enjoy today in rather unparalleled in history, and it is generally when we reach these levels that the decline starts. But the west is only a very small part of the world, one day all that will be left of us will dug up by a new time team, I wonder what they will make of us.

Yes, Gibbon was clearly wrong to put it down to christianity. (Constantine only made it the offical religion in what was a secular society in 332AD).

Before then, the inflationary collapse had taken place already - looking much like the UK is becoming, property representing nearly all wealth, a bloated state, ID cards and population register, a expanding huge gulf between rich and poor, and a disincentivesed shrinking middle class in between. Ever greater regulation.

There is a lot written about overexpansion, the extent of the borders of the empire, and how mathematically their cost of defense led to the great decline. However, when you delve further into it, you find that most of the frontier outposts were pretty much self sustainable, and caused no great tax drain. And the way the empire was constructed for many centuries - the client state system - powerful tribal leaders simply took roman law, became citizens and still controlled provences, meant there were few problems. What caused the imbalance was the not the size of its borders, but the bloated state and bloated wages of the public sector. Regardless of the economic cause of the borrowing and spending, this still would not be enough to destroy all institutions and structures that had been around for 1100 years.

The population explosion in Germany, and the waves of massive immigration was without doubt the force that totally changed Europe and the 1100 year old empire, its defenses and armies were gone because of this inside a few decades.