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Realistbear

Our Partner In The Hpc Of 1989-96 Is Slightly Ahead Of Us This Time Around

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SACRAMENTO

http://www.sacbee.com/content/homes/re_new...-15071532c.html

Forget about housing rebound

Sales, inventory and prices all point to a significant downturn in region's market.

By Jim Wasserman -- Bee Staff Writer

Published 12:01 am PDT Thursday, May 18, 2006

Through a long winter of rain and discontent, when home sales plunged nearly 30 percent from a year earlier, Sacramento-area home sellers and real estate agents yearned heartily for a spring rebound.
Spring is here. That rebound? Forget about it.
In the most explicit sign yet of the continuing down cycle gripping home sales in the Sacramento area, median prices fell again in April in El Dorado, Placer and Sacramento counties, while home sales remained flat or fell behind those in March, according to information released Wednesday by DataQuick Information Systems, a La Jolla-based real estate researcher.

SAN FRANCISCO & BAY AREA

http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?...&sn=001&sc=1000

Home sales drop to 5-year low

Steep decline sparks debate over whether the Bay Area real estate boom is over

Kelly Zito, Chronicle Staff Writer

Friday, May 19, 2006

Despite a record for Bay Area home prices in April, sales tumbled to their lowest level in five years as a chill continued to creep through the region's housing market.
Experts remain split on whether the slower rate of appreciation and softer demand during what is typically a robust sales season signal a pause or the beginning of prolonged slowdown in a sector that has bolstered the region's economy and vastly increased wealth for many homeowners in the past few years

LOS ANGELES

http://www.latimes.com/business/la-fi-home...a-home-business

More Signs of Housing Cool-Down

The region's median price rises 9% in April, the first year-over-year increase in single digits since 2001. Sales decline 21% for the month.

By Annette Haddad, Times Staff Writer

May 17, 2006

An almost-forgotten condition has returned to Southern California's housing market: single-digit price appreciation.
The region's median home price rose 9% last month, the first time in 4 1/2 years that the year-over-year increase was under 10%, data released Tuesday showed. Sales took their biggest percentage drop in 11 years.
The figures were the strongest signs yet that the Southland's housing market is ending its 5-year-old boom.

SAN DIEGO

http://www.signonsandiego.com/news/busines...b11housing.html

County's overall median home price inches higher as sales sag, listings surge

By Roger M. Showley

UNION-TRIBUNE STAFF WRITER

May 11, 2006

NELVIN C. CEPEDA / Union-Tribune

San Diego County's housing market was a quiet place last month as prices slipped in some areas and settled to an overall median of $505,000, DataQuick Information Systems reported yesterday.
The figure, off the all-time peak of $518,000 set in November, was only $1,000 more than in March and up just 4.3 percent from a year ago. Resale houses and condos both had a dip of $5,000 in their medians from March to $555,000 and $395,000, respectively.

SOUTHERN CA GENERALLY

http://www.dqnews.com/RRSCA0506.shtm

Southland home sales at five-year low, single-digit appreciation

May 16, 2006

La Jolla,CA----Home sales in Southern California decelerated in April to their
slowest pace since 2001, the result of higher mortgage interest rates and less buyer urgency
. Prices rose at a single-digit appreciation rate for the first time in more than four years, a real estate information service reported.
A total of 24,748 new and resale homes sold in Los Angeles, Riverside, San Diego, Ventura, San Bernardino and Orange counties in April. That was down 16.1 percent from 29,509 in March and down 21.3 percent from 31,431 in April last year.
The year-over-year sales decline was the steepest since April 1995
, when home purchases slowed 24.0 percent. Last month's sales count was the lowest for any April since 24,120 homes were sold in April 2001. DataQuick's statistics, which go back to 1988, show an average April for the nineteen years saw 23,660 sales.

http://www.dqnews.com/RRFor0506.shtm

California Foreclosure Activity Up

May 2, 2006

La Jolla, CA.——First-quarter foreclosure activity in California increased to the highest level in more than two years, the result of slower home price increases, a real estate information service reported.
Lending institutions sent 18,668 default notices to California homeowners during the January-to-March period. That was up 23.4 percent from 15,122 for the prior quarter, and
up 28.7 percent
from 14,501 for 2005's first quarter, according to DataQuick Information Systems.

But it couldn't happen here, surely not? California has seen HPI of around 120% since the end of the Great Crash in 1996. Ditto for the UK. California HPI has relied increasingly on IO and other forms of low rate mortgages since peaking in around 2003-04. Ditto for the UK. MEW has been rampant in California with much of the money being spent on 2nd homes and new cars. Ditto for the UK. California has experienced 5 or 6 years of strong employment growth with recent softening as affordability issues has forced many idustries to offshore or move to less expensive areas--sound familiar? Affordability has pushed FTBs out with only 8% able to buy onto the ladder in coastal areas. Sounds like the UK. Foreclosure rates rising in CA and UK but it seems we lead in that area with a 60% rise, albeit from a low base.

________________________

California is the world's 7th largest economy* whereas the UK is 5th** a point to bear in mind when considering relative levels of wealth. Cost of living, housing etc, broadly similar in both areas which may explain similar boom and bust cycyles.

*http://www.emich.edu/ict_usa/CA_STATE_PAGE.HTM

** http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economy_of_the_United_Kingdom

Edited by Realistbear

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The region's median home price rose 9% last month, the first time in 4 1/2 years that the year-over-year increase was under 10%, data released Tuesday showed. Sales took their biggest percentage drop in 11 years.

Hmm. So house annual house prices have seen double digit growths for the last 4 1/2 years there except up to last month when they rose a measly 9%?

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Hmm. So house annual house prices have seen double digit growths for the last 4 1/2 years there except up to last month when they rose a measly 9%?

9% YoY. The CA market started to reverse after mid-2005 (when the UK market started to slow). It will take a few more months to see negative YoY.

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  • 301 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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