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Laurejon - Bull Turned Bear?

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....the bull camp, once upon a time? The more I read your posts these days, the more I think we have a convertor in our ranks?

:D

To be fair to laurejon I think for the past year or two he's been predicting that the house price crash will arrive in 2007 with a vengeance.

Looks like he may be right though personally I think we'll be seeing prices starting to slide significantly by this autumn.

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And to be fair to him (Laurejon), he tends to put to much of a political spin on what he writes and does not seem to realise that most of what we have experienced would not have been much different under any government, and I still can't forgive the prat for telling deliberate lies about public sector employment in the North and generally trying to be divisive and disparaging to people who don't happen to live in the south, yep the mans a complete prat, and he is on my ignore list

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That's okay, I don't mind him being disparaging about people who live in the North, quite a lot of parts are economically stunted overpriced shit-holes, and I live in the North.

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I fail to see how you think things would be different under any other Government Rob.

Are you suggesting that Governments have no power to manage an economy, that it merely meanders too and fro of its own accord.

The simple fact is that had the Tories remained in power then the sacrifices made by just about everyone would have paid dividends. We had a trade suruplus in 98, and the economy was growing gracefully. The Labour party eyed the money, asset stripped the nation, installed the Cronies and borrowed 22k for every man women and child in the country.

I dont have a lot of faith in polititians however when it comes to the economy then it is for sure their job to manage it. Labour have failed when it comes to economic management of the nation, the illusion was superb, the back office workings are apalling and bordering on criminal.

The North of England has too many public service workers, now that is a simple fact. When the borrowing stops, they will be out of a job, what will Gordon and Tony have in place for this sad day, well I can tell you without any hessitation, they have nothing in place at all.

Its fine for Gordon to preach the benefits of axing the manufacturing industries making the way through over regulation and tax burdens, and replacing these important jobs with charity ones, but when the money runs out I can assure you he will have no choice other than to lay them all off.

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I fail to see how you think things would be different under any other Government Rob.

Are you suggesting that Governments have no power to manage an economy, that it merely meanders too and fro of its own accord.

The simple fact is that had the Tories remained in power then the sacrifices made by just about everyone would have paid dividends. We had a trade suruplus in 98, and the economy was growing gracefully. The Labour party eyed the money, asset stripped the nation, installed the Cronies and borrowed 22k for every man women and child in the country.

I dont have a lot of faith in polititians however when it comes to the economy then it is for sure their job to manage it. Labour have failed when it comes to economic management of the nation, the illusion was superb, the back office workings are apalling and bordering on criminal.

The North of England has too many public service workers, now that is a simple fact. When the borrowing stops, they will be out of a job, what will Gordon and Tony have in place for this sad day, well I can tell you without any hessitation, they have nothing in place at all.

Its fine for Gordon to preach the benefits of axing the manufacturing industries making the way through over regulation and tax burdens, and replacing these important jobs with charity ones, but when the money runs out I can assure you he will have no choice other than to lay them all off.

This is music to my ears. I wish I could sum it up this well. You should write a book.

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I dont think Robrent is too impressed, it would be good for Rob to lay his cards on the table and tell us all a little about himself.

Having read but a few of his posts I am guessing he is a staunch labour supporter, no matter how bad they are because his father and grandfather voted labour. I am guessing he works in public services as he lives in the North of England, and I further summise that he is in receipt of a generous amount of benefits such as Housing Benefit, Family Credit, or such like.

Given his party affiliation I guess he is pretty angry seeing me pointing out the deficiences of the New Labour Party. What he must realise is that the information is coming from the press, it is factual, and it is very current.

I am sure that if he were to lose his state subsidies and work in the private income generating economy then he would see things in a different light.

Surely nobody can believe that charity payments by a Government can continue forever unabated and at no cost to the economy.

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this thread was about whether laurejon has moved from the bull to the bear camp. he hasn't answered that and i used to think he was a bull, but his posts have in recent times been very bearish.

i totally agree with laurejon's analysis of what labour is doing to the uk economy.

do i believe that another party would do better?

well, yes.

the tories were spot on for most of the 1980s .

they lost the plot a little with the lawson boom and the doomed erm entry.

however, john major put the wagon back on the wheels.

i thought at first that labour had taken the right approach.

however, their suppression of interest rates through the proxy of the rigged mpc , their waste of billions on unreformed public services, the lining of the cronies pockets and the destruction of our enterprise culture is criminal.

they will pay the price one day and the tories will have to sort it out again.

i worry for some people who cannot analyse the facts and think for them selves. instead they take the easy path and swallow new labour's lies and propaganda.

reminiscent of germany in the 1930s.

the don

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I dont think Robrent is too impressed, it would be good for Rob to lay his cards on the table and tell us all a little about himself.

Having read but a few of his posts I am guessing he is a staunch labour supporter, no matter how bad they are because his father and grandfather voted labour. I am guessing he works in public services as he lives in the North of England, and I further summise that he is in receipt of a generous amount of benefits such as Housing Benefit, Family Credit, or such like.

Given his party affiliation I guess he is pretty angry seeing me pointing out the deficiences of the New Labour Party. What he must realise is that the information is coming from the press, it is factual, and it is very current.

I am sure that if he were to lose his state subsidies and work in the private income generating economy then he would see things in a different light.

Surely nobody can believe that charity payments by a Government can continue forever unabated and at no cost to the economy.

Live in the North you got that bit right (which is unusual for you)

Work in Private sector (Chartered Surveyor)

Have own house with small mortgage

I don't know many people who work for the public sector, one thing I do know that the party of economic competence you keep harking on about maintained an unemployment rate of close on 3 million throughout their term in government, they also let the infrastructure of this country rot, whilst giving the rural elite who supported them an ever greater share of the countries wealth.

In many respects I am slightly apolitical, I say a plague on all their houses to be honest, but I can not abide all this harking back with rose tinted glasses to a so called golden era under the Tories, in my experience it was not like that at all.

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I would guess that today I can be labelled Bear

The market is reasonable at present, and in some parts booming.

This scenario is played out everytime during a bubble, with the final entrants being the catalyst that finally pushes it over the edge. The basic economic fundamentals are now lost, sentiment is fuelling the buying process and rational logical analysis of the market is not taking place.

The remainder of the Lemmings held back for a few months by the prospect of high interest rates late 2005, early 2006 have been prompted to commence the dash to the edge by the lure lowering rates early 2006. However this bait has provided the market with the gravity it required to keep the ball rolling.

The sea is warm this year, but lets not forget Lemmings do not have a head for heights, and neither can they swim.

======================================================================

If you or I were to book a holiday in Argentina we would have a nice time and bring back some nice holiday photographs.

If your Great Great GrandChildren were ever to travel to the Middle East, could they say the same?.

Live in the North you got that bit right (which is unusual for you)

Work in Private sector (Chartered Surveyor)

Have own house with small mortgage

I don't know many people who work for the public sector, one thing I do know that the party of economic competence you keep harking on about maintained an unemployment rate of close on 3 million throughout their term in government, they also let the infrastructure of this country rot, whilst giving the rural elite who supported them an ever greater share of the countries wealth.

In many respects I am slightly apolitical, I say a plague on all their houses to be honest, but I can not abide all this harking back with rose tinted glasses to a so called golden era under the Tories, in my experience it was not like that at all.

We currently have 5 million on invalidity benefit, 1 million on unemployment benefit, and 70% of the workforce on some kind of benefit to make ends meet.

If that is an improvement I fail to see where it is.

The Tories managed the Country, they managed a War, they managed the economy, and they managed unemployment.

I am not looking back with rose coloured specs, the facts speak for themselves.

Under the Tories, if you were unemployed your mortgage interest was paid day 1, if you wanted a dentist that you paid for via NI Contributions you only had to walk to your high street, not get a plane to Goa.

State Services were basic, hence the low tax rates and the lack of interest amongst those that could afford to go private, lessening the burden on the state. Whether it be Hospitals, Health, Transport, Housing, all were not world class, and thus not over utilised, and they provided the safety net for those less able to fend for themselves.

Today, we see the state trying to compete with private business, with the Taxpayer footing the bill.

Edited by laurejon

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As you have posted outright lies before (70% of people in the North work for the public services remember that one), I take everything you say with a huge pinch of salt, you have a political agenda, I did not think that this forum was for that type of thing (or ego) I guess there are few more on here that agree with you, it does not make it true.

All governments have some responsibility for prevailing economic conditions but some things they can not do, for example if the worldwide interest rates are low, so it figures that ours will be low as well, which has in turn led to an unsustainable housing bubble, so what you appear to be saying that if the Tories would have been in power they would not have given us low interest rates despite the worldwide low interest rates, you and you fellow tin foil hat rightists also seem to make a virtue of unemployment, manages unemployment indeed, I guess it was never you that was unemployed in that case.

HPI has been a pretty worldwide thing this time around, I can't think of many countries that it has not affected, the blame IMO goes towards the financial institutions who's lending criteria and greed has fuelled this.

But I do think the UK needs managed economic growth, because it seems that every time with have good economic growth house prices take off, beyond the rate of inflation, there is scope for restricting the financial institutions by tightening up lending criteria if required even introduce legislation to do so.

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Funny that, I was just wondering about Laurejon too.....

Is this a masterplan?

Bears turning bull, bulls turning bear....

I'm sure it does no harm to the traffic to this site...are we all pawns in a Fubra, ad revenue generating vortex?

What about you Oldie? Are you going to reveal the other name you posted under?

After all, you outed Boom and Bust as sharing an IP with Sam.

In the interests of balance n'all that.....

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this thread was about whether laurejon has moved from the bull to the bear camp.

As far as I recall, laurejon has always stood by his "no HPC action until 2007ish" line throughout.

for example if the worldwide interest rates are low, so it figures that ours will be low as well,

Er, not quite right there. We do have SOME control over our own specifics. 2003 rate trough, August rate cut, anyone? Raising in 2004 and then stopping while everyone else started raising in earnest?

Similar tune, but some notable differences.

HPI has been a pretty worldwide thing this time around, I can't think of many countries that it has not affected, the blame IMO goes towards the financial institutions who's lending criteria and greed has fuelled this.

Supported by copious quantities of spin from media, with a notable absence of interjection from the government. Well, maybe King's late-in-the-day "real debt" observation. Spin which, I might add, wasn't here last time, even if I was a teenager at the time I do remember SOME things. Can't recall Sarah Beeny.

But I do think the UK needs managed economic growth, because it seems that every time with have good economic growth house prices take off, beyond the rate of inflation, there is scope for restricting the financial institutions by tightening up lending criteria if required even introduce legislation to do so.

Except if you're in a recession and the country has nothing else to do, and there is going to be rioting on the streets if people don't have jobs.

This house boom was a means to an end for a one-trick government.

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All governments have some responsibility for prevailing economic conditions but some things they can not do, for example if the worldwide interest rates are low, so it figures that ours will be low as well, which has in turn led to an unsustainable housing bubble, so what you appear to be saying that if the Tories would have been in power they would not have given us low interest rates despite the worldwide low interest rates, you and you fellow tin foil hat rightists also seem to make a virtue of unemployment, manages unemployment indeed, I guess it was never you that was unemployed in that case.

How So?.

This Government have had ample opportunity to retain British Jobs, and British Industries, however they chose to peddle the line that these industries are better served offshore. How bizzare that in the days of ever increasing transport costs, the pollution, the use of vital natural resources, they promote the idea that cheap tack that can be produced at home is better produced overseas then shipped across the world to arrive as an import.

This Government have borrowed to the hilt, now putting that into perspective, on behalf of the British Taxpayer this Government have borrowed to the hilt, and as a result of over borrowing, and under performing we are heading down sh1t street.

Maybe you would care to explain how this borrowing is going to be repaid, shirt buttons are not legal currency on the world stage, and offering a peerage to the Chinese to write off the trade debt will cut no ice.

The whole economic philosophy is yet another failed miserable Socialist Experiment designed in principle to make each and everyone of its Citizens equal. In the spirit of Fairness and the spirit of Socialist principles to level the playing field they decided not to elevate the poor to the middle classes, but to lower the middle classes down to the level of the poor. They call it redistributing the wealth, however many would see it as redistributing the poverty to a wider audience.

For sure today, if you are uneducated, bone idle, reckless, law breaking.......Then for sure, "You have never had it so good".

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How So?.

This Government have had ample opportunity to retain British Jobs, and British Industries, however they chose to peddle the line that these industries are better served offshore. How bizzare that in the days of ever increasing transport costs, the pollution, the use of vital natural resources, they promote the idea that cheap tack that can be produced at home is better produced overseas then shipped across the world to arrive as an import.

This Government have borrowed to the hilt, now putting that into perspective, on behalf of the British Taxpayer this Government have borrowed to the hilt, and as a result of over borrowing, and under performing we are heading down sh1t street.

Maybe you would care to explain how this borrowing is going to be repaid, shirt buttons are not legal currency on the world stage, and offering a peerage to the Chinese to write off the trade debt will cut no ice.

The whole economic philosophy is yet another failed miserable Socialist Experiment designed in principle to make each and everyone of its Citizens equal. In the spirit of Fairness and the spirit of Socialist principles to level the playing field they decided not to elevate the poor to the middle classes, but to lower the middle classes down to the level of the poor. They call it redistributing the wealth, however many would see it as redistributing the poverty to a wider audience.

For sure today, if you are uneducated, bone idle, reckless, law breaking.......Then for sure, "You have never had it so good".

/me RISES AND CLAPS!!!!

laurejon, I think most people will not see this until they are laid off. I think they still believe that GB is a miracle worker, they may as well vaseline themselves now coz they are gonna get phucked over, some time soon!!!!

Why dya think its been called the MIRACLE ECONOMY for soo long - No-one believes in it other than GB!!!!

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You’d better sit back down again and get some treatment for your clap.

“people will not see this until they are laid off”

So people have to lose their job to justify the contents my friend L J’s party political broadcasts? What if they keep their job till they retire, does this prove you and LJ wrong?

I think the reason LJ is bearish lately he’s hoping to get on David’s A list. (Not the Hollywood A List including Brad Pitt and Kate Windslops. You see the Tories are under orders to appear nice, so they have this list of nice candidates that are of all sexualities, colours, and religions and in there somewhere is Laurejon who will represent the new ugly face of capitalism. David has already given him his screen test. And primed him of course to answer when the heckler who asks “ What’s the difference between your imposed candidates and Nu Labour’s?

What the Conservatives are overlooking of course is they don’t need to pretend to tolerate and appeal to the people they usually to despise, because much more F== up from Labour and win the next election, their traditionalist can take retake control and this could go on for ever and ever.

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You’d better sit back down again and get some treatment for your clap.

“people will not see this until they are laid off”

So people have to lose their job to justify the contents my friend L J’s party political broadcasts? What if they keep their job till they retire, does this prove you and LJ wrong?

I think the reason LJ is bearish lately he’s hoping to get on David’s A list. (Not the Hollywood A List including Brad Pitt and Kate Windslops. You see the Tories are under orders to appear nice, so they have this list of nice candidates that are of all sexualities, colours, and religions and in there somewhere is Laurejon who will represent the new ugly face of capitalism. David has already given him his screen test. And primed him of course to answer when the heckler who asks “ What’s the difference between your imposed candidates and Nu Labour’s?

What the Conservatives are overlooking of course is they don’t need to pretend to tolerate and appeal to the people they usually to despise, because much more F== up from Labour and win the next election, their traditionalist can take retake control and this could go on for ever and ever.

I am not TORY, and nor is Laurejon.

He is very critical of THIS NuLabour government. There is no doubting that NuLabour are Tories in RED CLOTHING. The Tories may well have problems with the economy themselves - what I DO NOT ACCEPT is the lies, deception and incompetence of ths CURRENT government. I fully support LJ's comment and second them, because I BELIEVE that they follow my OWN beliefs!

Instead of having a go at me or LJ - then discredit the post I applaude??? You may find it hard to disagree with it!

GB has sold all our gold are ROCK BOTTOM prices, we have wasted BILLIONS on Millenium Dome, 3G networks, NHS etc. The list goes on. How people can defend this GROSS INCOMPETECE is beyond me! I was mearly pointing out that these muppets are not defendable! They will probably be responsible for a massive downturn in Employement. Convince me otherwise??

TB

Edited by teddyboy

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I am not TORY, and nor is Laurejon.

He is very critical of THIS NuLabour government. There is no doubting that NuLabour are Tories in RED CLOTHING. The Tories may well have problems with the economy themselves - what I DO NOT ACCEPT is the lies, deception and incompetence of ths CURRENT government. I fully support LJ's comment and second them, because I BELIEVE that they follow my OWN beliefs!

Instead of having a go at me or LJ - then discredit the post I applaude??? You may find it hard to disagree with it!

GB has sold all our gold are ROCK BOTTOM prices, we have wasted BILLIONS on Millenium Dome, 3G networks, NHS etc. The list goes on. How people can defend this GROSS INCOMPETECE is beyond me! I was mearly pointing out that these muppets are not defendable! They will probably be responsible for a massive downturn in Employement. Convince me otherwise??

TB

You don't need to be convinced. You KNOW, as (I think) Laurejon pointed out, the people that used to be listed as unemployed are now listed as disabled. I very rarely see anyone in a wheelchair etc - if you look at the statistics about 1 person in 10 in this country is disabled.

Yet in public car parks there are only ever a couple of disabled parking spaces. Maybe 1 in 50 spaces?

On the public sector workers front ....

Percentages by Region

However, I have read somewhere else that, in certain parts of the North East, the only new employment in the last 10 years has been public sector employment, with the result that, in those areas, 70% of the workforce are public sector workers.

Certainly any time I have the misfortune to have anything to do with this government, I usually have the pleasure of talking to a female geordie.

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I am not TORY, and nor is Laurejon.

He is very critical of THIS NuLabour government. There is no doubting that NuLabour are Tories in RED CLOTHING. The Tories may well have problems with the economy themselves - what I DO NOT ACCEPT is the lies, deception and incompetence of ths CURRENT government. I fully support LJ's comment and second them, because I BELIEVE that they follow my OWN beliefs!

Instead of having a go at me or LJ - then discredit the post I applaude??? You may find it hard to disagree with it!

GB has sold all our gold are ROCK BOTTOM prices, we have wasted BILLIONS on Millenium Dome, 3G networks, NHS etc. The list goes on. How people can defend this GROSS INCOMPETECE is beyond me! I was mearly pointing out that these muppets are not defendable! They will probably be responsible for a massive downturn in Employement. Convince me otherwise??

Teddyboy. I don’t have any problems with your postings some I think make excellent and valid points. My reference is mainly to L J. Although I voted him best poster of last year and runner up for this, one has to be careful whom one sups with.

L J does get his facts wrong, he also gets his historic timelines wrong namely he blames the wrong government for the wrong deeds. He often uses statistics out of context and is offensive to others with whom we share this planet.

On an occasion last year, and unfortunately I can’t trace it he did admit being a Tory with another poster one of whom and I could tell which described themselves as black and blue.

Edited by wheresmyfoxhole

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Public sector employment in the United Kingdom as a proportion of total employment was 20.4 per cent in June 2005. This was still below the June 1992 figure of 23.1 per cent but above the low point of 19.2 per cent in June 1999.

Who was in power in 92? nowhere on the site given does it say that in any region 70%. another lie nailed i am afraid

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L J does get his facts wrong, he also gets his historic timelines wrong namely he blames the wrong government for the wrong deeds. He often uses statistics out of context and is offensive to others with whom we share this planet.

You can say that again, but what I can't understand is why be so divisive, with it :angry:

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You can say that again, but what I can't understand is why be so divisive, with it :angry:

It's always the same with true believers - you're either with them or against them. LJ makes some good posts, but he's definitely got a bit of a rose-tinted political agenda.

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Teddyboy. I don’t have any problems with your postings some I think make excellent and valid points. My reference is mainly to L J. Although I voted him best poster of last year and runner up for this, one has to be careful whom one sups with.

L J does get his facts wrong, he also gets his historic timelines wrong namely he blames the wrong government for the wrong deeds. He often uses statistics out of context and is offensive to others with whom we share this planet.

On an occasion last year, and unfortunately I can’t trace it he did admit being a Tory with another poster one of whom and I could tell which described themselves as black and blue.

I think everyone is guilty of a little bit of 'guess-timation'. What I can see is the 'gist' of his posts. I did question him about being a Tory about 6 weeks ago. He replied that he is critical of ALL GOVERNMENTS that waste Taxpayers Money. At this moment it is NuLabour who are guilty of this.

Just because I hate Manchester United doesn't mean I'm a Manchester City fan does it?

LJ DOES quote previous governments and certainly in my lifetime (38) we have only had the TORIES (79 onwards) and NuLabour (97 onwards) as the majority parties. We have to agree that the Tories will be quoted a lot because during the 80's and early 90's they were the main people in-charge. I know, in fact I remember, the bad times we went through in the 80's and for a lot of that the TORIES were to blame.

I hate the fact that Maggies Sold Off public Services, I hate the Poll tax and its offsprings. What I have to come to realise with maturity and age is the economy NEEDED 15% interest rates for the LONG TERM future of the Country. The Tories got slated for this at the time, and quite rightly because it was very depressing times, but it WAS THE RIGHT THING TO DO!

At least they had the BALLS to be unpopular for the future of GB. These muppets are in it for their term only. This country is going to be in a terrible state in the next 5-10 years because THEY FAILED TO REACT! In 20 years time you will appreciate that MAGGIE and CO. probably did something RIGHT?

TB

*PS I have NEVER voted Tory in my life. Just being a devils advocate.

Edited by teddyboy

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  • 301 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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