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Realistbear

Faltering U K Economy May Preclude Any I R Hikes

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http://today.reuters.co.uk/investing/finan...RLING-CLOSE.XML

Interest rate outlook keeps sterling under pressure

Fri Jun 9, 2006 3:16 PM BST

LONDON, June 9 (Reuters) - Sterling fell towards the previous day's one-month low against the dollar on Friday, staying soft on expectations UK interest rates will remain on hold for the rest of the year.
Hawkish comments from Federal Reserve officials this week have cemented expectations of a U.S. rate hike this month.
In contrast,
a run of tepid UK data -- including an unexpected fall in April manufacturing and industrial output reported on Thursday
-- have quashed expectations for a Bank of England rate rise this year from the current 4.5 percent.
"I think sterling will probably remain under a little bit of pressure. Our sense is that the market is still overestimating the likelihood of a tightening by the Bank of England. The data this week has been a bit on the soft side on the production front," said Tim Fox, FX strategist at DrKW.
Sterling fell to session lows of $1.8369 <GBP=>, close to Thursday's one-month low -- after U.S. data showed that the trade deficit widened less than expected in April and import oil prices surged close to historical highs.
The BoE left rates on hold this Thursday and is now expected to stand pat for the rest of the year unless data improves.
Next week in Britain sees the publication of May producer prices data on Monday, consumer prices on Tuesday, unemployment on Wednesday and retail sales on Thursday.

The down cycle in house prices may get a boost from weakening manufacturing, job losses and the fallout from higher fuel costs making the additional burden of higher IR unecessary. The pound will have to suffer as a result making higher rates necessary next year to add to a HPC which is underway accross the UK despite frenzied buying in London.

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Not sure what to read into that. Faltering economy might mean a bit more unemployment though I think IR increase is the key to getting HP correction. Dissapointing. I should also perhaps think that if I buy soon, would I want higher IR anyway? Hmmm.

I don't consider 1.83 as low (few years back it was 1.4) but that's irrelavent.

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:lol::lol::lol:

Spin it big boy.

You never answered my question. Are you unemployed & living off your STR fund?

Surely you won't be interested in this TTRTR. After all, its not specifically related only to london. :)

Edited by geneer

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HPC cancelled again?

Or atleast put off for another year...

At this rate when there is a correction it will be a waste of time. Ive watched prices for a 2 bed go through the 100K mark now up to 130K. So if the market loses 25% which is a pretty big drop in anyones books then the same 2 bed will be as equally over valued at the new price of 100K.

I was thinking years ago that 100K was way to expensive now it looks like it has to be my best target, at the end of it all it looks like all we would have done is spent 5 years renting and saving just to slap it on a 'corrected' price but then the mortgages will be much more expensive.

Instead of super stretching and buying at 100K a while back at a fixed rate of 4.5% for 10 years now it looks like ill have the oppotunity to put the 10K that i have spent years saving into the house as a deposit for a house of about 100K at maybe a 6% mortgage rate.

Thats withstanding prices rising further which it looks like they are going to, so the 2 up 2 down could be up for 150K then with a 25% correction its down to 112K, add my 10K to the pot and im exactly where i was years ago just older.

OR

Should we not believe that rates will be held throughout the year.

EDITED:

I dont do bullish thoughts well :lol:

Edited by theChuz

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HPC cancelled again?

Or atleast put off for another year...

At this rate when there is a correction it will be a waste of time. Ive watched prices for a 2 bed go through the 100K mark now up to 130K. So if the market loses 25% which is a pretty big drop in anyones books then the same 2 bed will be as equally over valued at the new price of 100K.

I was thinking years ago that 100K was way to expensive now it looks like it has to be my best target, at the end of it all it looks like all we would have done is spent 5 years renting and saving just to slap it on a 'corrected' price but then the mortgages will be much more expensive.

Instead of super stretching and buying at 100K a while back at a fixed rate of 4.5% for 10 years now it looks like ill have the oppotunity to put the 10K that i have spent years saving into the house as a deposit for a house of about 100K at maybe a 6% mortgage rate.

Thats withstanding prices rising further which it looks like they are going to, so the 2 up 2 down could be up for 150K then with a 25% correction its down to 112K, add my 10K to the pot and im exactly where i was years ago just older.

OR

Should we not believe that rates will be held throughout the year.

theChuz, I wonder, what's your answer to this question:

http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/forum/ind...showtopic=31415

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Guest Bart of Darkness
You never answered my question. Are you unemployed & living off your STR fund?

Well since you said that you wouldn't believe him if he said no, why should he bother to answer?

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The down cycle in house prices may get a boost from weakening manufacturing, job losses and the fallout from higher fuel costs making the additional burden of higher IR unecessary.

There isn't a down cycle. Prices are still rising.

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There isn't a down cycle. Prices are still rising.

Tell that to those Upnorth:

NAME AV PRICE (£) QUARTER ANNUAL SALES

Northumberland £149,225 -8.8% 5.9% 1129

Cumbria £143,851 -1.6% 7.7% 2006

Tyne And Wear £132,526 -0.3% 9.1% 4023

Stockton-On-Tees £128,643 -5.0% -2.9% 682

Darlington £125,556 -5.6% 2.3% 530

Durham £114,329 -4.3% 6.5% 1956

Redcar And Cleveland £109,289 -11.2% 5.2% 502

Middlesbrough £108,982 4.7% 22.7% 485

Hartlepool £98,770 -5.2% 32.3% 415

Sources: Land registry

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/shared/spl/hi/in_d...tml/region1.stm

In my area the falls are doing nicely:

NAME AV PRICE (£) QUARTER ANNUAL SALES

Stratford-On-Avon £240,614 -6.8% -1.9% 475

Warwick £212,130 -1.7% -1.8% 549

Rugby £166,372 -1.0% -7.1% 490

North Warwickshire £162,600 -6.5% 5.2% 233

Prices are falling accross the nation and, as Halifax reported, the only good news for inflation in house prices is restricted to London.

My old area (Godalming, Surrey) is doing nicely also:

Waverley £321,454 -5.9% 0.6% 510

Overall, its a mixed picture with some areas doing better than others. The North and Midlands seems to be going down the hardest with patchy drops in the SE.

I am considering a possible job in the Gatwick area and note that their prices are doing well also:

Horsham £253,866 -4.8% -0.4% 586

Mid Sussex £240,907 -4.4% -0.8% 577

Edited by Realistbear

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theChuz, I wonder, what's your answer to this question:

http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/forum/ind...showtopic=31415

I dont know , numbers confuse me. :)

Tell that to those Upnorth:

NAME AV PRICE (£) QUARTER ANNUAL SALES

Northumberland £149,225 -8.8% 5.9% 1129

Cumbria £143,851 -1.6% 7.7% 2006

Tyne And Wear £132,526 -0.3% 9.1% 4023

Stockton-On-Tees £128,643 -5.0% -2.9% 682

Darlington £125,556 -5.6% 2.3% 530

Durham £114,329 -4.3% 6.5% 1956

Redcar And Cleveland £109,289 -11.2% 5.2% 502

Middlesbrough £108,982 4.7% 22.7% 485

Hartlepool £98,770 -5.2% 32.3% 415

Sources: Land registry

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/shared/spl/hi/in_d...tml/region1.stm

In my area the falls are doing nicely:

NAME AV PRICE (£) QUARTER ANNUAL SALES

Stratford-On-Avon £240,614 -6.8% -1.9% 475

Warwick £212,130 -1.7% -1.8% 549

Rugby £166,372 -1.0% -7.1% 490

North Warwickshire £162,600 -6.5% 5.2% 233

Prices are falling accross the nation and, as Halifax reported, the only good news for inflation in house prices is restricted to London.

My old area (Godalming, Surrey) is doing nicely also:

Waverley £321,454 -5.9% 0.6% 510

Overall, its a mixed picture with some areas doing better than others. The North and Midlands seems to be going down the hardest with patchy drops in the SE.

I am considering a possible job in the Gatwick area and note that their prices are doing well also:

Horsham £253,866 -4.8% -0.4% 586

Mid Sussex £240,907 -4.4% -0.8% 577

Tewkesbury

Average Cost: £192,811

Detached: £288,738

Semi-detached: £173,839

Terraced: £145,047

Flat: £120,601

Change in last quarter: 1.5%

Change in last year: 1%

Sales: 369

My surrounding towns are cheltenham and gloucester

Gloucester

Annual Increase 0.2%

Qtr Increase 0.8%

Avg Price £149,965

Cheltenham

Annual Increase 6%

Qtr Increase 4.6%

Avg Price £222,106

Edited by theChuz

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My building society is called that.

Yea your in good company i believe tony blair has a mortgage with the C+G. :)

Tewkesbury Cheltenham and Gloucester are mainly what make up this area, there are other places of course but these 3 seem to be the most well known / talked about.

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Well since you said that you wouldn't believe him if he said no, why should he bother to answer?

He can always try me, you never know, I might believe a believable story.

How could an STR who moved from the U.S. to the U.K. find the time to post so many links each day? Surely they're either unemployed or they're skiving and are very worried about their job.

I can't see the logic on spending so much time chasing your tail with endless attempts to convince people that something is happening when it's clear nothing is happening?

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LMAO .....

Well on the back of one little article, RealistBear has come round to agreeing with me that IRs are not likely to rise and you might as well postpone your crash for the foreseeable future.

The reality is that growth is neither too strong, nor too weak. The economy is ticking over just about perfectly. Inflation is contained and isn't about to let rip.... so why do you need to raise IRs.

The BoE is trying to devalue the pound and my understanding of this is that it whats to see it at least 10% from where it is now. .... so why do you want to raise Irs.

And good old RB spinning his selective pic n mix house price falls. Why doesn't he just take the big picture of say Yorkshire, rather than pick a few selective small towns where prices have fallen, which as we all know is because its based on too small a sample.

The man is a fraudster.

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LMAO .....

Well on the back of one little article, RealistBear has come round to agreeing with me that IRs are not likely to rise and you might as well postpone your crash for the foreseeable future.

The reality is that growth is neither too strong, nor too weak. The economy is ticking over just about perfectly. Inflation is contained and isn't about to let rip.... so why do you need to raise IRs.

The BoE is trying to devalue the pound and my understanding of this is that it whats to see it at least 10% from where it is now. .... so why do you want to raise Irs.

And good old RB spinning his selective pic n mix house price falls. Why doesn't he just take the big picture of say Yorkshire, rather than pick a few selective small towns where prices have fallen, which as we all know is because its based on too small a sample.

The man is a fraudster.

and you are a northern monkey.

Grow a brain and come back. This is a global thing. The reason we had low rates is because world interest rates went down, driven and delivered by two huge economies - the USA and Japan.

World rates are now going up. It is not rocket science.

Anyone who thinks rates here will not go up, is living in la la land.

http://news.ft.com/cms/s/71708a42-f7af-11d...00779e2340.html

Edited by BubbleTurbo

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  • 338 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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