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What Will The Markets Do Tomorrow (friday)

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Watching Bloomberg this afternoon and it seems the futures are not looking good. I am almost totally out of stocks now and 94% in cash.

The inverted yield curve is back which may suggest a recession is coming soon:

http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/060608/wall_street_morning.html?.v=8

Bonds added to the market's worries as short-term yields overtook long-term rates for the first time since March, a sign of weakening confidence in holding long-term debt. The yield on the 10-year Treasury note slid to 4.99 percent from 5.02 percent late Wednesday, but the 2-year Treasury yield stayed flat at 5.01 percent.

Factor in the unwinding of the yen carry trade and we could see some things happen a lot faster than the markets thought. Would not be at all surprised to see the housing market panic this summer with a lot of "For Sale" signs as overleveraged owners try to get out.

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I'm surprised by the swiftness, this is beyond a blip!

Of course bad things won't happen, previous governments wholeheartedly wanted an asset price crash and really wanted it to happen, but this time around the government won't let it happen as we have a magic wand to banish the evil faries.

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I've been at work most of the day but when I switche Bloomberg on this evening, I was suprised by how depressed they seemed. Resigned even.

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I've been at work most of the day but when I switche Bloomberg on this evening, I was suprised by how depressed they seemed. Resigned even.

I believe that most realists know the party is over, what has led the bull run was the same as what has led HPI, cheap money, borrowed money, (as in all bubbles) now the questions why are they pulling their money what has spooked them, I don't think it's just inflation I think many of the investors are aware that the era of easy debt is over and the ramifications that will bring.

But of course the majority of people out there will not have a clue to what is happening, until its far to late

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I believe that most realists know the party is over, what has led the bull run was the same as what has led HPI, cheap money, borrowed money, (as in all bubbles) now the questions why are they pulling their money what has spooked them, I don't think it's just inflation I think many of the investors are aware that the era of easy debt is over and the ramifications that will bring.

But of course the majority of people out there will not have a clue to what is happening, until its far to late

I was determined not to sit this one out like I did after the dot.com bust. I sold nearly all my stocks a month ago and cashed out most of the rest last week. To me it blindingly obvious what is going on. The cheap credit that has been filling the bubbles is being removed from the world economies who see inflation as a greater evil than a corrective recession. Alan Greenspan warned the markets a couple of years ago that the froth would have to be removed and that pain was inevitable where irrational exhuberance had manifested itself.

House prices are ridiculous in the UK. With no FTBs the chains cannot complete. IR are headed up and people are more indebted than before the Great Crash of '89. Employment is weakening and stock markets are crashing. It is too late for the sheeple to get out now and those who profess to know what they are doing do not follow the golden rule of investing: buy low and SELL high. Most bulls on this website seem to have either bought high or are still holding long past the sell by date. We have had 9 - 10 years of a bull market and now its time for the down side of the cycle. No market has ever manifested a non-cyclical pattern. Like perpetual motion or "Miracle Economies" it does not exist in the real world.

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Don't cha just love the smell of a market crashing? Ain't nothing finer than watching gamblers get fleeced.

some may think that is misanthropic - I prefer to think of all the nice people who will get assets at good value prices. :)

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I wonder if they will stabilse a bit as a result of the killing of Zarqawi... oil is going down which must be good for everyone else.

Mind, I doubt that Zarqawi's death will have a long-term affect on the insurgency.

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the widespread adoption of the Value At Risk market models mean that people are only going to flee more and more from risk, its like a inverse bubble, eventually risk begat volatility and vol begat selling which induced more vol. personally having lost thousands in the latest market declines, I'm only going to invest more and hope for more declines, I'm hoping for N225=12000 and Yen at 211 again which would be a sweet spot to buy (only 15% or so to go now ). with markets like brazil trading on a P/E of 7 equities are starting to recover some of their lustre, maybe I will divert more currency trading profits into equities if the prices are right.

the Dow and S+P though still have a LOOOOONG way to go which makes me think we ain't seen anything like as cheap as its going to be in future.

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http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/060608/wall_street_morning.html?.v=8

Bonds added to the market's worries as short-term yields overtook long-term rates for the first time since March, a sign of weakening confidence in holding long-term debt. The yield on the 10-year Treasury note slid to 4.99 percent from 5.02 percent late Wednesday, but the 2-year Treasury yield stayed flat at 5.01 percent.

Christopher Wang - He says that long-term rates moved lower than short-term rates, i.e. long-term bonds became relatively more expensive and concludes that this reflects weakening confidence in long-term bonds! What's the point of these journalists if they write b0ll0cks?

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I think they'll recover a little. I don't think we'll see big falls and I certainly hope not because market jitters restrain the BoE from raising interest rates.

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The Dow has finished up 10 points after a massive >200 pt rebound.

I think the Fed's onto the case.

More ups and downs to come in the markets as the White House sees faster growth.

...so no end to the rising of interest rates in the US.

<White House advisers have said they expect the US economy to grow more quickly this year, but warned that inflation will accelerate as well.

The US economy is now seen expanding by 3.6% compared with earlier estimates of 3.4%, President George W Bush's Council of Economic Advisers said on Thursday.

Consumer prices will gain by 3% instead of the earlier prediction of 2.4%.

The comments are unlikely to ease fears about higher interest rates that have hit world stock markets in recent days.>

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FTSE up 53 points in pre-market trading

100 5,634.60 +71.70 (1.29%)

250 9,006.20 +192.50 (2.18%)

Good opening, but not recovered all yesterday's losses.

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  • 301 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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