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monkeybutt

Who Will Be Affected

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All,

First post here so please don't flame me !!!

I agree that there will be a correction in the near future but would welcome your thoughts as to what kind of properties this will affect.

Would you expect to see all types of houses reduced by a set figure or would, for example flats and starter homes drop by 20% whilst medium family homes dropped by 5% and larger 'executive' :angry: homes maintain their value ? Or would this example occur in reverse ?

Thanks in advance for your thoughts.

Monkeybutt

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I'm still not certain of a correction, but hoping.

Prime targets for falls will be high density housing in not-great areas- 1 & 2BR "executive" apartments could be hit very hard.

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I'm still not certain of a correction, but hoping.

Prime targets for falls will be high density housing in not-great areas- 1 & 2BR "executive" apartments could be hit very hard.

Agree fully with that sentiment - don't buy a flat or luxury appartment as they call then now - most cities are awash with developments and prices are already starting to fall (and they still have as many again in ther process of development)

The situation in the SW is opposite to your scenario MB the cheaper end of the market is selling (it is all that people can afford) and the executive homes as you put it are not moving very quiclky

The falls when they are quantifiable (ie not being hidden by the spin of the reporting machine) will vary dependant upon area- I think that London and the SE will fair best as they have had flat prices for a long time - who can tell!

CS

Edited by Cornwall Sceptic

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Agree fully with that sentiment - don't buy a flat or luxury appartment as they call then now - most cities are awash with developments and prices are already starting to fall (and they still have as many again in ther process of development)

The situation in the SW is opposite to your scenario MB the cheaper end of the market is selling (it is all that people can afford) and the executive homes as you put it are not moving very quiclky

The falls when they are quantifiable (ie not being hidden by the spin of the reporting machine) will vary dependant upon area- I think that London and the SE will fair best as they have had flat prices for a long time - who can tell!

I'd agree with most of that. I think the thing to look for is imbalances in the market. In a lot of areas, the cheap FTB stuff has kept rising after family houses stagnated for instance. The market has become compressed because the cheap stuff was all people could afford, and this is likely to come out in the wash, whether we have falls or stagnation. In London, exec apartments are clearly overpriced compared to decent conversions with gardens in the same area. And bad areas of London have kept rising until they are nearly as high as good areas.

Just a few examples, but look at your local area and try to work out if these kinds of compressions apply - if so the most overpriced stuff is most at risk. In 1989-94 there was a huge variation in falls across different types of property and areas. In London, studio flats (which were very popular just before the crash as a "first step on the ladder" fell through the floor. Crappy areas collapsed. Better areas fell but not by half as much.

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Guest Charlie The Tramp

Better areas fell but not by half as much.

Between early 88 to late 89 properties in my area went from 80k to 120k, by 1992 they had dropped back to 83k and did not return to that 120k peak until 2001. The area was then and still is today a very popular area.

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Here are some land registry stats from the North for the last quarter where its a bit grim:

OVERALL:

Northumberland £149,225 -8.8%

Cumbria £143,851 -1.6%

Tyne And Wear £132,526 -0.3%

Stockton-On-Tees £128,643 -5.0%

Darlington £125,556 -5.6%

Durham £114,329 -4.3%

Redcar And Cleveland £109,289 -11.2%

Middlesbrough £108,982 4.7%

Hartlepool £98,770 -5.2%

FLATS:

Cumbria £130,033 7.4%

Darlington £124,431 3.8%

Durham £124,370 9.1%

Middlesbrough £112,181 -6.7%

Stockton-On-Tees £106,564 4.6%

Tyne And Wear £105,236 -0.3%

Hartlepool £96,458 6.2%

Northumberland £88,942 -6.4%

Redcar And Cleveland £70,930 -18.6%

SEMIS:

Tyne And Wear £118,670 -0.9%

Northumberland £112,420 -2.8%

Cumbria £101,040 -1.9%

Darlington £88,164 -11.1%

Durham £83,587 0.3%

Stockton-On-Tees £80,648 -8.3%

Redcar And Cleveland £80,587 -3.4%

Middlesbrough £74,603 4.8%

Hartlepool £63,646 2.6%

DETACHED

Northumberland £261,473 -9.4%

Cumbria £251,256 -0.2%

Tyne And Wear £238,577 -3.0%

Stockton-On-Tees £226,513 5.1% -6.2%

Middlesbrough £208,824 -7.9%

Hartlepool £202,822 -14.0%

Darlington £201,247 -8.7%

Durham £194,763 -2.7%

Redcar And Cleveland £191,596 -12.3%

As you can see detached are dropping harder than flats with semis not doing too well either.

My guess is that when the crash spreads throughout the UK detached will follow the same pattern with cheap flats suffering the least--especially in areas where they are not too prolific. BTL flats in the South are likely to be hit extremely hard IMV due to overbuilding and overpricing.

Source: http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/shared/spl/hi/in_d...l/region1.stm?d

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Between early 88 to late 89 properties in my area went from 80k to 120k, by 1992 they had dropped back to 83k and did not return to that 120k peak until 2001. The area was then and still is today a very popular area.

I agree it's a simplification, and maybe it was also to do with how rapidly areas had just risen - but there was nonetheless a big variation. My area (N10) fell by only about 5%, while areas further east (N22, N15) fell by 25-30%. Having said that, it's likely that the cheap stuff (ie like what I own...) in N10 fell by the most, and the overall average was supported by a larger proportion of property at a higher value - in other words the decompression of the market had the strongest effect on areas where a lot of cheaper stuff had changed hands. I'm sure there are all sorts of different ways you could analyse what did OK and what did badly, but I do remember that there was a pretty big spread of falls even within London, where the falls in general were pretty big.

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my mates mums ongoing anecdotal say s that after now 2 years, she has failed to sell her ex la semi for the crazy asking price of 140k.

though she did buy a grotty second hand fridge to make that perfect FT~B place they could "move right into to".

the only buyer / offer she got pulled out. now shes pressuring her son to buy it for stupid money. hes up for it, apart from the fact he is skint and doesnt work. the saga continues.....all the family are pretty stupid.

its pretty good viewing though.

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Here are some land registry stats from the North for the last quarter where its a bit grim:

The stats were mostly moving in the right direction. So I suppose you meant the North, when you said "where its a bit grim"?

only a bit?

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  • 341 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
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      • Even
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