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Without_a_Paddle

Halifax Figures Out Today

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http://www.hbosplc.com/economy/includes/Ho...ndexMay2006.pdf

prices increased by 0.1% in May, the smallest monthly rise since January's 0.2%

fall.

• As expected, technical factors – specifically, the corresponding figures last year were

weak - and recent momentum in the housing market have caused house price inflation to

pick up in early 2006. The annual rate, at 9.1%, is the highest for 14 months (March

2005).

• The much stronger pattern of house price growth in the second half of 2005 compared

with the first half should mean that annual house price growth moderates during 2006 H2.

• There are signs that housing market activity may be beginning to level out. The number

of mortgage approvals to fund house purchase fell in April for the second time in four

months with the number of loans 11% below January's peak of 119,000, according to the

Bank of England.

• The pressures on the household sector resulting from higher unemployment and

significantly higher household bills, together with the current high level of house prices in

relation to earnings, are likely to constrain housing demand and curb house price growth

and activity over the remainder of 2006.

• Separate Halifax research published today shows that there are now an estimated 66,600

properties in Britain valued at £1 million and more compared with only 3,400 in 1995 – a

twenty-fold increase. Sales at £1 million and above outside London and the South East

have risen 36-fold over the past decade.

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WAP WAP....... O beacon of light.

Here to save everybody from not owning a house...... :lol:

Sees the full potential from ownership, but cant make millions by buying houses like everybody else..... :lol:

Thinks he is number one FA........ When actually he is well 'under thumb' and cant do what he wants, so has to hang around with 'HPCers' telling them how silly they are..... :lol:

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Guest

It really doesn't matter when, forced to use Interest Only, your average man will never own the house.

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It really doesn't matter when, forced to use Interest Only, your average man will never own the house.

Given the choice between an IO mortgage and renting, the average person will opt for buying because only a rise in IR's will increase the monthly payments.

Also, as his wages rise with inflation he will be able to save and possibly pay off some of the capital, or have a better standard of living.

In the mean time rent will continue to rise with inflation and so a renter's standard of living would remain the same.

It will take a large rise in IR's to deter a dermined home buyer.

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Given the choice between an IO mortgage and renting, the average person will opt for buying because only a rise in IR's will increase the monthly payments.

Also, as his wages rise with inflation he will be able to save and possibly pay off some of the capital, or have a better standard of living.

In the mean time rent will continue to rise with inflation and so a renter's standard of living would remain the same.

It will take a large rise in IR's to deter a dermined home buyer.

Erm - there are so many things wrong with this statement that I don't know where to start. What about having to find thousands for stamp duty, solicitors fees etc, as opposed to £100 for the letting agent? I know which looks more attractive to me. Also, inflation rates are currently at a historical low, and there is a lot of pressure on to constrain pay rises (especially in the public sector - see many previous posts on this), so I can't see said person having a lot of extra cash to play with. Then there's the fact that even small IR rises make quite a difference to mortgage payments (especially if you have borrowed a ridiculous sum, as is necessary nowadays). renters can also rent a very decent place for the kin of monthly payment that would only buy you a studio - not what I'd call having a lower standard of living. So to sum up, in my opinion, the IO mortgagee buying recently is a mug.

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I don't trust certain statistics (Rightmove obviously), but Halifax + Nationwide figures do mean something, even if they are massaged slightly. Let's us think about that. I mention this because in other threads, people over downplay any info from VIs.

Once day soon (1-4 years) the Halifax + Nationwide figures will start showing very small decreases (may be even that -0.1%), we'll start trusting them then.

However, we must not forget that the trend this year hasn't been that good for HPC.

Edited by dev

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Ahem, when will I know if my prediction made at year start for 8 - 10% HPI to be reported by Autumn was on the money or not?

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Erm - there are so many things wrong with this statement that I don't know where to start. What about having to find thousands for stamp duty, solicitors fees etc, as opposed to £100 for the letting agent? I know which looks more attractive to me. Also, inflation rates are currently at a historical low, and there is a lot of pressure on to constrain pay rises (especially in the public sector - see many previous posts on this), so I can't see said person having a lot of extra cash to play with. Then there's the fact that even small IR rises make quite a difference to mortgage payments (especially if you have borrowed a ridiculous sum, as is necessary nowadays). renters can also rent a very decent place for the kin of monthly payment that would only buy you a studio - not what I'd call having a lower standard of living. So to sum up, in my opinion, the IO mortgagee buying recently is a mug.

Stamp duty and other fees would normally be added onto an IO mortgage. The borrower should have a deposit for an IO mortgage but I wouldn't be at all surprised if this wasn't a requirement from all lenders.

Inflation is low, but over 25 those 2% add up. Your comment regarding renting a house for similar money to what you could buy a studio/flat for - maybe with a repayment mortgage but not necessarily with an IO mortgage.

I find it more rediculous renting for £1000/ month than buying and paying the same back as IO. And considering a lot of buyers are chossing IO mortgages to get onto the ladder, a lot of people agree with me.

Each to their own I suppose but a majority of the UK public would rather buy than rent.

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Stamp duty and other fees would normally be added onto an IO mortgage. The borrower should have a deposit for an IO mortgage but I wouldn't be at all surprised if this wasn't a requirement from all lenders.

Inflation is low, but over 25 those 2% add up. Your comment regarding renting a house for similar money to what you could buy a studio/flat for - maybe with a repayment mortgage but not necessarily with an IO mortgage.

I find it more rediculous renting for £1000/ month than buying and paying the same back as IO. And considering a lot of buyers are chossing IO mortgages to get onto the ladder, a lot of people agree with me.

Each to their own I suppose but a majority of the UK public would rather buy than rent.

And not forgetting that fact that part of your mortgage terms with IO is that you have to have an investment vehicle in place to pay of the capital at the end. Most lenders don't check but it gives them a who lot more reason to pull the rug from under you if you ever got into difficulty.

Lets say you IO for 10 years get into difficulty and have to sell the house except for any equity you might have built up you would have nothing to show for your £120k.

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WAP WAP....... O beacon of light.

Here to save everybody from not owning a house...... :lol:

Sees the full potential from ownership, but cant make millions by buying houses like everybody else..... :lol:

Thinks he is number one FA........ When actually he is well 'under thumb' and cant do what he wants, so has to hang around with 'HPCers' telling them how silly they are..... :lol:

All I did was post the Halifax figures and the top level pointers. I didn't edit any of it. I didn't comment on it.

I assume the Halifax report doesn't make good reading for you KW (as you STRd a year ago).

Don't shoot the messenger...

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All I did was post the Halifax figures and the top level pointers. I didn't edit any of it. I didn't comment on it.

I assume the Halifax report doesn't make good reading for you KW (as you STRd a year ago).

Don't shoot the messenger...

I dont care what they say..... Houses where i lived are NOT going up....... And i only took £3000 under the top valuation for mine anyway..... :lol:

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Let us not forget that this is a national average. The index is getting pushed up by Northeren Ireland , parts of Scotland and certain parts of London, most other areas remain flat i.e 0% or in many cases negative... don't believe me ? check out the lastest Halifax quarterly report giving the regional breakdowns.

Wonder how they account for the now huge difference between the Halifax and NWide indices ? Halifax is currently about double the Nwide YoY.

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That graph seems to suggest that actual selling prices (nationwide/Halifax) are around 20% below asking prices (Rightmove). Interesting.

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Guest Charlie The Tramp
Halifax Figures Out Today, HPI +9% Year on Year

Excerpts from the MPC minutes of June 2004 after the back to back increase in rates as HPI was steaming full ahead. Maybe another warning shot across the bow is required. ;)

CPI inflation had risen by 0.1 percentage point to 1.2% in April. In line with pre-release

arrangements, an advance estimate of CPI inflation in May was provided to the Governor 3½ days

ahead of publication, and this suggested a rise of 0.3 percentage points to 1.5%.

There was mixed evidence on the strength of household spending, and, while house price inflation was stronger than the Committee had envisaged in May, there were tentative indicators that housing market activity might be easing.

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And added to the graph – latest roundup of the indices:

122p286.jpg

here are the figures from the land registry...

http://www.proviser.com/regional/towns/exe...1995/index.html

change the town..

Halifax are rubbish

Given the choice between an IO mortgage and renting, the average person will opt for buying because only a rise in IR's will increase the monthly payments.

Also, as his wages rise with inflation he will be able to save and possibly pay off some of the capital, or have a better standard of living.

In the mean time rent will continue to rise with inflation and so a renter's standard of living would remain the same.

It will take a large rise in IR's to deter a dermined home buyer.

that would be the lowest rate of FTB's ever.. not really showing the average buyer is it...?

Looks like the average buyer is looking at it and not buying.. and inflation.. ?? would that be public sector pay rises in the next three years....????

Guess not there..

hmmnn..

who is this average buyer..?

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Stamp duty and other fees would normally be added onto an IO mortgage. The borrower should have a deposit for an IO mortgage but I wouldn't be at all surprised if this wasn't a requirement from all lenders.

Inflation is low, but over 25 those 2% add up. Your comment regarding renting a house for similar money to what you could buy a studio/flat for - maybe with a repayment mortgage but not necessarily with an IO mortgage.

I find it more rediculous renting for £1000/ month than buying and paying the same back as IO. And considering a lot of buyers are chossing IO mortgages to get onto the ladder, a lot of people agree with me.

Each to their own I suppose but a majority of the UK public would rather buy than rent.

uhm.. FTB's at the lowest rate ever recorded..

Bless... people are buying to rent out.. and to make a loss against an IO mortgage doing so..

Record voids as the oversupply of houses..

Never mind

and price rises are not reflected by the official registered selling price of homes recored by the government.. Land Registry..

Duh.. its been about selling credit.. which is why someone who listens more to the Halifax then the IMF before buying would seem..

Well..

What would you call it...?

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  • 301 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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