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Ireland H P I Looks Shaky

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Wednesday June 7, 07:30 PM

AIB Says House Prices Will Continue To Rise

The bulletin said that while current activity remains buoyant, registration and commencement data paint a dimmer picture about the strength of activity in the opening months of 2006.
Registrations rose by 9.5% year-on-year in the first five months of the year, pushing the cumulative 12
month total to a new record high of 64,786 in May.
But the report points out that provisional data show commencements down 17.6% year-on-year for the first three months of the year.
As a result, the cumulative 12-month total to March at 74,400 was at its lowest since December 2004, when the reporting began.
The report said that it remains to be seen whether the downturn in commencements is the beginning of a trend or merely a blip.
AIB expects the ECB to hike official rates by 0.25% to 2.75% at its meeting tomorrow.
Given the low level of prices rises in May/June 2005, AIB expect house price inflation to increase even further in the next couple of months, at least and expects a rate of at least 12% at the end of the year.

Not long for the IR HPC?

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On its own I wouldn't read too much into it.

However, it comes alongside an employment vacancies survey today which points to a big slowdown in sentiment, with construction specifically highlighted. Any downturn in the construction sector could result in major job losses.


The survey said that the decline reflects decreases in the percentage of companies with jobs on offer in the services, construction and retail sectors. Vacancies in the services sector saw a big drop, falling from 31% to 22%.

And, following on from AIB's sale of its HQ to a property developer, it looks like the Bank of Ireland is selling its branches and leasing them back in order to...er..."strengthen its capital base".

Hmmm....There is a delicious irony here - A big poster outside my BOI branch highlighting "100% MORTGAGES" is enticing the poor little first time buyers in, and meanwhile the Bank is doing an STR.


Edited by Flash

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