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Realistbear

Ftse Down Almost 100 Points At 8:15

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FTSE 100 (FSI:^FTSE)

Index Value: 5,608.70

Trade Time: 8:15AM

Change: 97.60 (1.71%)

Prev Close: 5,706.30

Open: 5,706.30

Day's Range: 5,586.90 - 5,706.30

52wk Range: 4,984.20 - 6,137.10

The rising IR environment worldwide and perception that IR sensitive assets are vulnerable could be behind the world-wide sell off.

What next for THE most IR sensitive asset of them all: houses?

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Unfortunately the last time stock markets collapsed the housing market went silly as people looked for safe havens. When people are fed daily tripe about how prices will boom forever they believe it.

Edited by simon99

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Unfortunately last times stock markets collapsed the housing market went silly as people looked for safe havens.

Debt mountains and further investment in bloated house prices are already slowing the market down. This time the bubble is full to the point of bursting: affordability is alread past the breaking point as evidenced by the virtual dissappearance of FTBs. The Big SM Crash of 1987 saw a HPC begin in 1989. We are beyond 1989 in relation to this present SM crash.

Sterling down 400 points from Monday

1 U.K. £ =

1 1.8492

EU bourses much worse:

DAX Index 5,426.02 8:09 -117.91 (-2.13%)

CAC 40 Index 4,737.60 8:24 -87.17 (-1.81%)

OMX Stockholm 30 Index 906.37 8:09 -26.42 (-2.83%)

Edited by Realistbear

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Guest The_Oldie

Builders (and CWD) sharply down again.......

BARRATT DEV PLC (BDEV.L)At 8:10AM : 851.50 p 29.50 (3.35%)

BERKELEY GRP UTS (BKG.L)At 8:09AM : 1,076.00 p 27.00 (2.45%)

COUNTRYWIDE (CWD.L)At 8:10AM : 467.50 p 9.50 (1.99%)

G WIMPEY PLC (WMPY.L)At 8:10AM : 413.88 p 13.62 (3.19%)

PERSIMMON PLC (PSN.L)At 8:11AM : 1,116.80 p 33.20 (2.89%)

TAYLOR WOODROW (TWOD.L)At 8:10AM : 304.75 p 13.00 (4.09%)

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http://today.reuters.com/investing/MarketR...S-UPDATE-11.XML

Japan's Nikkei logs biggest one-day loss in a year

Thu Jun 8, 2006 2:53am ET

TOKYO, June 8 (Reuters) - The Nikkei average tumbled 3.07 percent on Thursday to book its biggest one-day percentage loss in a year, as exporters such as Honda Motor Co. Ltd. (7267.T: Quote, Profile, Research) fell on persistent concern about a slowdown in the United States, a key market for Japanese products.

:o

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Unfortunately the last time stock markets collapsed the housing market went silly as people looked for safe havens. When people are fed daily tripe about how prices will boom forever they believe it.

That is true, what is also true is that houses were a lot cheaper then and offered decent yeilds. Neither can be said of today's property market.

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Hopefully it will be different, but I've been hearing all this for 5 years now and have lost all hope of ever buying a home.

Don't forget HPI and HPC runs in cycles. The Great Crash was 1989-96. 7 years. We have been up from 1997-2005 or about 8 years. We are due right about now and the HBOS survey says it all. We are at the top of the mountain looking down into the HPC valley below.

Nothing lasts forever and the boom and bust cycle in housing is not about to go away anytime soon. Its built into the system.

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Nothing lasts forever and the boom and bust cycle in housing is not about to go away anytime soon. Its built into the system.

Fortunately, around my area (and yours RB, since we're close) there has been downward movement in prices and no increase on 2004.

However, for others in the country at large like Scotland, NI and now parts of London, anyone who had not bought in mid-2004 would be considerably out of pocket now.

I still believe in the cycle and that this disgraceful mess will eventually right itself, but it's taking longer than anyone expected.

Things are definitely getting interesting now though - IRs up everywhere (except for the UK :rolleyes: ) and stock markets down.

If the BoE keep resisting by keeping IRs down forever then I think it's another nail in the coffin for me being in the UK.

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Don't forget HPI and HPC runs in cycles. The Great Crash was 1989-96. 7 years. We have been up from 1997-2005 or about 8 years. We are due right about now and the HBOS survey says it all. We are at the top of the mountain looking down into the HPC valley below.

We've seen monthly movements down in house prices only to be followed by massive increases the following months. I've seen the top called every month in the last 4 years.

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Guest grumpy-old-man

We've seen monthly movements down in house prices only to be followed by massive increases the following months. I've seen the top called every month in the last 4 years.

are the massive increases just in asking prices though NOT actual sold prices. You can value your house at whatever you want to, & if it sells does that mean it has sold for that price...I doubt it. People invariably lie about things...if it's a house they have sold they got top whack for it......if it's a car they have bought, they got a bargain ;)

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100 point barrier broken:

FTSE 100 (FSI:^FTSE)

Index Value: 5,596.70

Trade Time: 8:45AM

Change: 109.60 (1.92%)

Prev Close: 5,706.30

Open: 5,706.30

Day's Range: 5,586.90 - 5,706.30

52wk Range: 4,984.20 - 6,137.10

If the BoE hike today......................................... :o

If the BoE don't hike today................................... :o

(admission of weakness in economy--lets world see the UK is HPI dependent)

UK builders getting hit hard--US follows suit as market faces full on crash:

http://www.ohio.com/mld/ohio/business/14756307.htm

Homebuilders are slammed by downgrades

BRIAN CHARLTON

Associated Press

DETROIT - Shares of major homebuilding companies fell again Tuesday in reaction to ratings downgrades, fears of higher interest rates and lower full-year outlooks for the cooling housing market.
The
housing market is one of the most sensitive industries to rate increases
as mortgage rates affect the purchase of new homes.
Edited by Realistbear

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The reasons for the current collapse are different from last time - the free credit has dried up, spooking the players. Basically, they all know the jigs up, and hard times are upon us.

The perceived risk to being invested has increased, as my old boss at Stan Chart used to say.

And what happens when perceived risk rises?

People divest assets in a 'flight to cash'

There's a ways to go yet peeps!

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FTSE 100 (FSI:^FTSE)

Index Value: 5,572.00

Trade Time: 9:14AM

Change: 134.30 (2.35%)

Prev Close: 5,706.30

Open: 5,706.30

Day's Range: 5,571.20 - 5,706.30

52wk Range: 4,984.20 - 6,137.10

5523 marks 10% down from this year's top (6137). Still a way to go to call a "crash" (20%).

I was 80% cash a month ago and 94% cash last week. Anyone else bail?

This may be the principle cause of the corrections:

http://orange.advfn.com/news_Tokyo-urges-B...p_15712502.html

After the government's call, BoJ deputy governor Kazumasa Iwata said the
central bank is not going to accelerate its process of draining excess cash from
the banking system following the end to its ultra-loose monetary policy.
At the same time he indicated that the BoJ would still continue plans to
move toward an end to its zero interest rate policy despite the stock market
plunge.
"We have not changed our view that interest rate levels will be gradually
adjusted as the nation's economy is shifting to a normal state from deflation
despite the current movement of asset prices," Iwata told a news conference in
the city of Akita.

The thing which fuelled HPI and MEW in the UK (the "Miracle Economy") is about to be terminated. Get out of IR sensitive assets while you can--houses are NOT immune to IR rises.

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The movement is probably exasibated by low volumes for this time of year - but the fundementals are still there...

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Northern Rock being hit reasonably hard (3.6+% down) Oilex is down more than 10% since yesterday! :o

OILEX down even more

Last Trade: 40.20 p

Trade Time: 9:54AM

Change: Down 6.80 (14.47%)

Prev Close: 47.00

Open: 43.50

Bid: 40.00

Ask: 45.00

1y Target Est: N/A

Edited by OzzMosiz

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5523 marks 10% down from this year's top (6137). Still a way to go to call a "crash" (20%).

We are now 9% down from our peak, whereas the dow is down 6.6%. So much for the thought that UK stocks were cheaper based on lower P/E and higher yield!

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Guest prudence

The movement is probably exasibated by low volumes for this time of year - but the fundementals are still there...

Why don't you learn to spell before you pontificate on the stock market? If you at least appeared educated your postings might be taken a little more seriously

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Why don't you learn to spell before you pontificate on the stock market? If you at least appeared educated your postings might be taken a little more seriously

Where's your full stop? :lol:

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Builders falling too: // posted this WARNING on SP

I suggest you have a look at the Builders shares today, there is:

"A clear a palable sense of panic emerging"

00a25dl.gif

Will we pull back from the brink, or slide into the abyss? I am covering my short positions in the Builders today, which stocks like Barratt below 850p. Why? Because I think the market is staring into the abyss today, and it will not slide down on the first go. We could get a bounce of a few days or weeks before the real slide begins.

If you havent sold your Property yet, it may be too late, unless you move FAST.

I suspect many of the high-geared-Bulls playing this game are deluded in their market perceptions, and will get caught. Old Marketeer despite is self-confessed lack of formal qualifications seems to have a better grip on market realities than many of the dreamers here do.

Dr B.

Do you not have concerns that falling equities, commodities and metals will serve to prop up the property market as perceived 'safe havens' are sought?

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Dr B.

Do you not have concerns that falling equities, commodities and metals will serve to prop up the property market as perceived 'safe havens' are sought?

I'm not DrB, but surely huge crashes in the stock market will lead to job losses ?

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...Will we pull back from the brink, or slide into the abyss? I am covering my short positions in the Builders today, which stocks like Barratt below 850p. Why? Because I think the market is staring into the abyss today, and it will not slide down on the first go. We could get a bounce of a few days or weeks before the real slide begins.

If you havent sold your Property yet, it may be too late, unless you move FAST.

I'd be more convinced by the link between builders shares and general HPI if it weren't for the fact that there is such a specific bubble in new-build exec apartments etc. I can see the value of new-builds falling a long way, and the rest of the market not being nearly as badly affected. Because it would only bring new-builds down to vaguely sensible pricing.

The fall in builders' stocks seems to me to be partly to do with the general market, and partly to do with the fact that a period of easy, high profit for them is clearly coming to an end. Very understandable but not in itself indicative of a wider crash.

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  • 301 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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