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House prices just keep going up and up and up and up..............................and have been for years, I want short succinct reasons as to why you think there is going to be a crash in the near future ( next few years) because you lot keep saying it's going to happen, and have been saying so for years. Well I am losing my faith in you I'm sorry to say, unless................you can convince me otherwise.

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House prices just keep going up and up and up and up..............................and have been for years, I want short succinct reasons as to why you think there is going to be a crash in the near future ( next few years) because you lot keep saying it's going to happen, and have been saying so for years. Well I am losing my faith in you I'm sorry to say, unless................you can convince me otherwise.

As long as you steer clear of new builds, you can't go wrong buying a property. In 25 years it will be yours to hand down to your children.

And it WILL be worth considerably more than what you will pay. If you want to buy a family home there is no reason not to. If you are buying as an investment then more caustion should be taken.

Where are you thinking of buying?

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House prices just keep going up and up and up and up..............................and have been for years, I want short succinct reasons as to why you think there is going to be a crash in the near future ( next few years) because you lot keep saying it's going to happen, and have been saying so for years. Well I am losing my faith in you I'm sorry to say, unless................you can convince me otherwise.

Don't have faith in other people (or religion).

Work it out for yourself. Nobody else is reponsible for you.

WTF should anyone else have to convince you?

People should just come here to exchange views and have a debate about their opinions.

Now quit yer whingeing and do your homework :angry: :angry: :angry:

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At any excuse I usually pop into estate agents and have a rant and I’m finding the employees are stuffed off with it too. When I calm down and they realise I’m a serious first time buyer with a genuine grievance, they drop the pretence and advise me to hang on. I do get the distinct impression, and I don’t believe I’m being fobbed off, but I am convinced that they think at last someone has come through their door and expressed for them the underlying anger that banes even them.

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House prices just keep going up and up and up and up..............................and have been for years, I want short succinct reasons as to why you think there is going to be a crash in the near future ( next few years) because you lot keep saying it's going to happen, and have been saying so for years. Well I am losing my faith in you I'm sorry to say, unless................you can convince me otherwise.

Personally I don't think a housing crash is right round the corner. Putting a time frame on it is extremely difficult. I think the current prices are unsustainable in the long term. A flood of global liquidity has created asset bubbles throughout western civilisation. Rather than being invested in things to make the economy grow such as business it has been invested in housing which ties everything up. High house prices hurt everyone in the long term. The first to feel the pinch are people like myself i.e. FTBs. The market needs FTBs as without them everything else up the chain can't move up and the whole thing becomes deadlocked. The people on the second rung have nobody to sell to and so can not move up and so on and so on. BTLs have replaced FTBs but they will not want to move up in later years so the bottom rung has merely moved up one. For people further up the ladder the rungs get further and further away. People looking to property as their pension will have nobody to sell to in 25 years in order to realise their investment as all the strain is being put on the young people, who (if this situation continues) will never be able to buy. There is a good reason why only 7.8% of FTBs make up the market total compared to some 50% only a few years ago. No matter what way or what angle you come at it, regardless of interest rates or employment, the situation is unsustainable. The biggest factor for me is that in a low inflation/low interest rate environment you never erode away the capital of the debt. So the more you borrow the more of a burdon a mortgage is and the more unlikely you are to never be able to pay it off. This alone will ensure that in the medium term the market collapses. You aren't going to wake up one day and see prices 50% lower, but you might see it slowly eroded away over time. Of course if we see an interest rate hike like we have seen in the States then that could all end tomorrow, much like it has over there.

Edited by SCUMBAG

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House prices just keep going up and up and up and up..............................and have been for years, I want short succinct reasons as to why you think there is going to be a crash in the near future ( next few years) because you lot keep saying it's going to happen, and have been saying so for years. Well I am losing my faith in you I'm sorry to say, unless................you can convince me otherwise.

If need to be convinced then I suggest you buy as there must be more pro's to home ownership for you than just any fear rising rates, unemployment or potential loss of a large wedge of money.

For me renting saves me cash and allows me the flexibility to move with work and suits at the mo, however I hope that joe public will get to grips of the precarious nature of debt and the reliance of low rates soon and cut back on paying WAY OTT for properties as I think the mrs will soon start putting pressure on me to buy.

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House prices just keep going up and up and up and up..............................and have been for years, I want short succinct reasons as to why you think there is going to be a crash in the near future ( next few years) because you lot keep saying it's going to happen, and have been saying so for years. Well I am losing my faith in you I'm sorry to say, unless................you can convince me otherwise.

I would not try to convince you. However I have my conviction and my reasons not to buy.

After all this time rising, statistically there are more chance to see a fall than a rise, and the further they go, the more they are likely to correct.

Now there are, I think, some facts; IR will I think go up, and in conjunction with a v high debt it is an explosive cocktail.

I have a colleague who pays 400 for a three bed, I am not going to mess up my life paying 900£ just because I arrived 5 years later on the market. I just can't

If I am all wrong, does not matter, I save and I am free to move if needed, I do not maintain the house.

I am ready to rent for life until I buy cash at etirement.

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Personally I don't think a housing crash is right round the corner. Putting a time frame on it is extremely difficult. I think the current prices are unsustainable in the long term. A flood of global liquidity has created asset bubbles throughout western civilisation. Rather than being invested in things to make the economy grow such as business it has been invested in housing which ties everything up. High house prices hurt everyone in the long term. The first to feel the pinch are people like myself i.e. FTBs. The market needs FTBs as without them everything else up the chain can't move up and the whole thing becomes deadlocked. The people on the second rung have nobody to sell to and so can not move up and so on and so on. BTLs have replaced FTBs but they will not want to move up in later years so the bottom rung has merely moved up one. For people further up the ladder the rungs get further and further away. People looking to property as their pension will have nobody to sell to in 25 years in order to realise their investment as all the strain is being put on the young people, who (if this situation continues) will never be able to buy. There is a good reason why only 7.8% of FTBs make up the market total compared to some 50% only a few years ago. No matter what way or what angle you come at it, regardless of interest rates or employment, the situation is unsustainable. The biggest factor for me is that in a low inflation/low interest rate environment you never erode away the capital of the debt. So the more you borrow the more of a burdon a mortgage is and the more unlikely you are to never be able to pay it off. This alone will ensure that in the medium term the market collapses. You aren't going to wake up one day and see prices 50% lower, but you might see it slowly eroded away over time. Of course if we see an interest rate hike like we have seen in the States then that could all end tomorrow, much like it has over there.

Yeah, that was succinct! :lol::lol::lol:

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With everything else going up in price, and the bad debt levels, there is no more money to feed into this ponzi pyramid scheme.

What goes up most come down,

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if you think you will stay in the property you buy for a very long time..then go for it. Otherwise it's a bad time to buy.

The way i look at it is-house prices are extortionate and if i stretched myself big time to get a small foot on the ladder and then IRs increase i'm buggered.

I'm happy to rent (to a degree) until house prices become more attainable.

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Unfortunately, the main probability is that house prices won't crash - all you'll see is a modest sluggish drop over 5-6 years to about 20% max at medium-high end, 20%+ at the really high end, and 0-10% at the normal flat to 3-bed semis in towns. And that will only happen when the lending criteria tighten a bit and IR rise (real possibility of that now).

Sorry to tell everyone this but that's what is going to happen. Here's a short summary why (I reckon I could write a book on this):

1. The house transaction system is (currently) a very heavily seller-weighted system. For example, if you trade gold or stocks, bears can register their bearish nature by shorting a stocks or commodity, or even taking sides in option trades. This applies immediate downward pressure in the price of that stock/commodity through the trading system.

The only way that this can be achieved in the housing market is for people to go into the market and put low offers in on houses. But the transaction system is weighted more favourably on the seller’s side because that is the person that has the experienced EA (more on what I mean by “experienced” later on…) doing the negotiating for them. The EA gets commission so protects the price in the way that they interact with the buying and the vendor. There’s rarely someone negotiating on the buyer’s part.

2. On top of 1, think about how most people go about buying a house… Most people are not that knowledgeable on property so need to ask VIs for advice in some way, hence the EA or other VI has the “experience” in the system, or perceived “experience” if you’re one of those who thinks less highly of EAs. That gives them more power to indirectly control or set the price expectations to the buyer & seller.

For example, most people go to a financial adviser to see how much they can afford and this predominantly is heavily orientated around how much it costs a month for the mortgage, and not the overall cost of the property, so the current system doesn’t invite people to be confident or think naturally about looking for discounts as well.

So the emphasis on the properly purchase is monthly payments, not the “let’s see what discounts I can get today” mentality, which more applies to buying a new car or other stuff.

3. Previous dips have resulted in house prices stagnating, and high inflation offsetting, rather than massive falls that people on this site are talking about (or even that respected Capital Economics chap).

Yes you can argue "this time it will be different", but ask yourself what factors make it so different this time in the housing bubble. There’s slightly more BTL out there this time; But for the majority that people own, they are these people’s dwellings too with psychological attachment, add the average transaction time, and this makes the house market move very slow compared to other things you can buy & sell.

So even in down market, we are talking “down direction” very slowly and with a lot of inertia.

I also feel that the way the scale used on the house price graph shown on this site’s home page, actually skews the hike increase in 1998-2003, but greatly hides the lesser increases we have had this year and last (make it look like a triple top, as opposed to a wavering increase [which I suppose the tech analyst will argue is equally bearish if comparing divergences on ROC or something ---don't bother to do that please, its relatively meaningless on its own ---]).

If you download the data yourself and graph it, you’ll see that the overall graph looks much more compressed overall on the Y axis (makes the current bubble’s top look far smaller than what is shown on HPC’s graph [though still bigger than the previous 1988 bubble]), but the recent lower gradient rise over the last 1.5 years looks higher when I plot the numbers myself.

So house prices are still rising, slowly, but still definitely, let’s stop pretending they aren’t.

Did you get all that?

I can also tell you this from experience. We have been on the market for 2 years hoping for a “crash” because we were uneducated back then and we didn’t understand the mechanics of property (still wish we just bought 2 years ago to be honest).

We have about 400K in cash and own the current v. small property we live in (worth poss >150K), and I can tell you we’ve tested the market to death. There have been some deals, but not great ones, and asking prices ___have___ risen. Overall, the type of property we want to buy is currently just over what we can afford with a mortgage that we would be happey with if IR went up above 5%

The only benefit we have achieved through this so called “waiting” is being marginal experts now on the property market, prices, mortgage deals, finding properties, pricing models (basic per Sq ft, real discounted cash flow model, std EA market valuation, etc) and what you can honestly expect on reductions with lower offers. But chaps, honestly, we feel like right tw*ts at social parties when everybody talks about how their house price has gone up, and how we are so wrong about why everyone should have not bought in 2004 etc. etc.

Overall I still wish we just bought 2 years ago, payed slightly over the odds then, but wasted less time doing viewings/research etc. and enjoyed our lifes doing up our new family house etc. etc. Overall, we’d still be better off now (slightly financially), but we could have spent more time doing hobbies, drinking beer, or doing whatever else took our fancy, but not being on this sodding HPC web site and all the other places that we have gained our knowledge from, and finally not looking like tw*ts now at every friend's social occasion.

Did that turn into a bit of rant at the end? Did you get that all?

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Like I have said before this tome it is different very different, I suppose all we can do is wait and see, but things could turn into a worldwide depression rather than recession

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House prices just keep going up and up and up and up..............................and have been for years, I want short succinct reasons as to why you think there is going to be a crash in the near future ( next few years) because you lot keep saying it's going to happen, and have been saying so for years. Well I am losing my faith in you I'm sorry to say, unless................you can convince me otherwise.

Up and up.??

The land registry show that more areas are dropping then rising...

I don't understand what you mean...?

can you explain...?

back to early 2004 prices round me..

2005 rises wiped out..

It goes up, slows, turns, and then accelerates... we have started heading down

and, well you only have to see the offers against new builds..

Prices are on the way down..

Its like holding a blue ball, telling me the ball is red and asking me to convince you the ball is blue.

Look at the ball.

also, read what the IMF are saying..

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Did that turn into a bit of rant at the end? Did you get that all?

Yeah.

Heard it all before thanks :P

Can you explain to me again how property can continue to rise if the liquidity dries up and lending criteria becomes far more tight, and interest rates rise?

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As long as you steer clear of new builds, you can't go wrong buying a property. In 25 years it will be yours to hand down to your children.

And it WILL be worth considerably more than what you will pay. If you want to buy a family home there is no reason not to. If you are buying as an investment then more caustion should be taken.

Where are you thinking of buying?

Measure house prices against average wages.

in 25 years it will be worth more then now, that is inflation...

But in 5 years it won't be, that is the economic cycle.

In 25 years you need to have paid of any loan..

IO mortgage cannot be re-financed in negative equity.. and prices are heading down now in most areas. if you can't pay of capital over 25 years now without wage inflation you don't want to be paying of that loan over 20 years.. it will hurt.

Remember, buy now and prices are heading down (most areas. Land Registry figures).. you have no buffer.. you enter negative equity...

IR's are rising.. this will drop prices further..

(remember, people used to pay £7,000 for housing.. but this was when the average salary was £2000

you need to measure cost against available money.. everything gets more expensive.. its called inflations...)

Yeah.

Heard it all before thanks :P

Can you explain to me again how property can continue to rise if the liquidity dries up and lending criteria becomes far more tight, and interest rates rise?

Continues to rise.. most areas dropping people.. would you notice this garrgh...!

graph, change the area.. some are rising..most are not

http://www.proviser.com/regional/towns/exe...es/price_trend/

Edited by apom

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House prices just keep going up and up and up and up..............................and have been for years, I want short succinct reasons as to why you think there is going to be a crash in the near future ( next few years) because you lot keep saying it's going to happen, and have been saying so for years. Well I am losing my faith in you I'm sorry to say, unless................you can convince me otherwise.

You have answered your own question with what you want to hear........ Go and buy your castle and be happy forever..... :ph34r:

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Measure house prices against average wages.

in 25 years it will be worth more then now, that is inflation...

But in 5 years it won't be, that is the economic cycle.

In 25 years you need to have paid of any loan..

IO mortgage cannot be re-financed in negative equity.. and prices are heading down now in most areas. if you can't pay of capital over 25 years now without wage inflation you don't want to be paying of that loan over 20 years.. it will hurt.

Remember, buy now and prices are heading down (most areas. Land Registry figures).. you have no buffer.. you enter negative equity...

IR's are rising.. this will drop prices further..

(remember, people used to pay £7,000 for housing.. but this was when the average salary was £2000

you need to measure cost against available money.. everything gets more expensive.. its called inflations...)

Continues to rise.. most areas dropping people.. would you notice this garrgh...!

graph, change the area.. some are rising..most are not

http://www.proviser.com/regional/towns/exe...es/price_trend/

In 10 years unless there are IR rises, the repayments for a mortgage will be the same. Another 15 years later (or less) the house is theirs.

Rent would have increased and 25 years later they will still have to pay ever increasing rent.

It is a lot easier than it sounds but everyone that buys a house make sacrifices. Alway have , always will.

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House prices just keep going up and up and up and up..............................and have been for years, I want short succinct reasons as to why you think there is going to be a crash in the near future ( next few years) because you lot keep saying it's going to happen, and have been saying so for years. Well I am losing my faith in you I'm sorry to say, unless................you can convince me otherwise.

If you want to pay more for the same house today than you will in a couple of years time then go ahead. Oh, and do not forget the difference will be doubled when you factor in the interest.

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I think this "lets wait and see" or "wait for a crash" doesn't suit everyone on this board.

Time itself is an expensive comodity. When I found this board many months ago it renewed my enthusiasm in my belief that waiting was the correct thing to do. Now I know better, have much more clarity about what's going on, and have seen many properties and done some negogiating, I can see that an overall proper crash (30-40% reduction) in property is extremely unlikely.

*UGGER, B*GGER, BU**ER

That's all I can say.

If you can't afford to borrow & buy, especially at the FTB end; I agree you shouldn't, and you might be better off in 2 years time. But if you can all this waiting and living in a place that is not in keeping with your needs is not appropriate (consider how silly it looks to spend £1800-2500 a month renting the sort of place we would really like to buy).

Sorry, you'll only get rants from me. I'm a fed up HPC web site watcher.

I think some of you might have skewed viewpoints, that's all.

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As per always no one actually discusses that prices are going down..

Drat.. lol..

Okay, IO mortgage has to have the capital paid of.

So 25 year at repayment for the average house £180.000

4.5% interest.

£1011.58 a month.

That is how much you have to pay to own in in 25 years.

Now prices are going down, you have an IO mortgage, its been 5 years.. You can't re-finance.. (negative equity)

What are your repayments over 20 years..?

£1153.14 a month..

Or £1698.72 extra a year..

Didn't the public sector just get a three year pay freeze…?

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We have about 400K in cash and own the current v. small property we live in (worth poss >150K)

Well why don't you stop crapping on about your unoriginal and badly expressed theories and go and buy a house then? If you had the level of insight you think you do you would have realised everyone thinks you're a tw*t by now.

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There is nothing new in what you're saying. Prices have crashed before and will fall again. However unless there is an interest rate rise or other trigger, prices will fall more gradually over a number of years, as they have already been doing in some areas, instead of crashing rapidly.

Whether or not to buy now depends on the area, type of property, price as well emotional need etc. I would steer clear of new builds, flats, BTL ghettos and be very, very selective. In any case I would also wait until HIPs arrive as it will save a lot of hassle in buying.

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  • 301 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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