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Realistbear

V I Desparate Cry: House Prices To Go Up More Than Expected

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http://www.iii.co.uk/news/?type=afxnews&ar...&action=article

LONDON (AFX) - A leading housing industry body has revised up its forecasts for house price forecasts for 2006 and 2007 as well as its predictions on interest rates and the extent of repossessions.
The Council of Mortgage Lenders said it expects house prices to end the year 7 pct higher than at the start, compared with a 2 pct forecast back in February. For 2007, the CML has raised its forecast from 2 pct to 3 pct.
The CML also said property sales are set to be stronger than forecast in February and is predicting 1.2 mln sales against the previous 1.0 mln forecast.

Despite:

1. Rising world IR

2. Employment declines

3. Affordability

4. Growing repossessions and bankruptcies

5. Dropping house prices throughout most regions of the UK

6. Recessionary trends in the US which will stifle UK GDP

Edited by Realistbear

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It's funny, isnt it?

The VIs and Fat Jocko have jumped thru HOOPS to keep the plates spinning, and have actually managed to produce a 'triple top' on one of the graphs.

To keep that running much longer is obviously now impossible. Don't know why they bothered really.

Bit like furiously shovelling sand while the tide rushed in. No amount of plastic buckets and sweat can stop the tide. "No Sea here! Move on! We're all perfectly dry! Glug! Glug!"

Been fun to watch though!

The crash is now well and truly underway.

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It's funny, isnt it?

The VIs and Fat Jocko have jumped thru HOOPS to keep the plates spinning, and have actually managed to produce a 'triple top' on one of the graphs.

To keep that running much longer is obviously now impossible. Don't know why they bothered really.

Bit like furiously shovelling sand while the tide rushed in. No amount of plastic buckets and sweat can stop the tide. "No Sea here! Move on! We're all perfectly dry! Glug! Glug!"

Been fun to watch though!

The crash is now well and truly underway.

I think this was one of your quotes from just over a year ago, CIUW (May 2005)

The point the 'neg heads' are making is very simple, and only Property Gnu can't get it - THIS IS NOT THE BEST TIME TO BUY.

I can virtually guarantee you that next year will be a better time. And very likely the year after that will be even better. What this means is that buying now will COST YOU A LOT OF MONEY compared to buying next year, or the year after. Its nothing personal guys, its just maths. The debt load has passed teh event horizon, and teh suckers are about to get cleaned out.

Things haven't quite gone to plan over the last 12 months, have they CIUW?

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It's funny, isnt it?

The VIs and Fat Jocko have jumped thru HOOPS to keep the plates spinning, and have actually managed to produce a 'triple top' on one of the graphs.

To keep that running much longer is obviously now impossible. Don't know why they bothered really.

Bit like furiously shovelling sand while the tide rushed in. No amount of plastic buckets and sweat can stop the tide. "No Sea here! Move on! We're all perfectly dry! Glug! Glug!"

Been fun to watch though!

The crash is now well and truly underway.

I wish it was underway. But it isn't yet in my opinion.

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http://www.iii.co.uk/news/?type=afxnews&ar...&action=article

Despite:

1. Rising world IR

2. Employment declines

3. Affordability

4. Growing repossessions and bankruptcies

5. Dropping house prices throughout most regions of the UK

6. Recessionary trends in the US which will stifle UK GDP

Mostly complete garbage again there RB - but why let the truth stand in the way !

1. Fair enough, but UK rates anchored at 4.5% or 4.75% if press are to be believed and thats what counts here in the UK.

2. Sorry, but employment is increasing.

3. Affordability, as I understand it has improved marginally I grant you, but people don't appear to be struggling do they.

4. Fair enough, but you fail to mention they are still at low levels historically. Context is all importnat you know.

5. Complete garbage, prices are rising as shown by all surveys and backed up by my eyesight !!

6. What recessionary trends, their economy is heating up, hence the need for them (not us) to increase IRs to cool things down, so that growth becomes sustainable. They ain't going to have a recession.

You are deliberately trying to mislead people RB. Shame on you.

:D

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I think this was one of your quotes from just over a year ago, CIUW (May 2005)

Things haven't quite gone to plan over the last 12 months, have they CIUW?

What's not to plan, Paddler?

Look at the graph - see how it's basically flatlined, against all the odds. But DIDN'T resume the rises of the years before.

Given that renting is about 40% cheaper than owning, and has been since 2004, the last 2 years have been a MASSIVE saving for anyone who DIDN'T buy then.

And now - down we go making it even worse for those who jumped in post 2004.

Here we go indeed!

AH, let the fun begin!

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Prices are falling in many areas. For example, my friend's flat in London, valued at £300k in 2003, currently valued at £250k. Hasn't sold it but this represents a 16% fall andover 20% after inflation. A crash is never going to feel like a crash until it has happened.

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You are deliberately trying to mislead people RB. Shame on you.

:D

Trouble is FortunatelyForUsYou'reUpNorth you seem to think that we are immune to the USA's problems.

Is employment really increasing? The only real increases in employment are the NuLab engineered ones. Funnily enough Gordon Brown has frozen their wages which is the signal that this inefficient form of employment has come to an end. From here on we rely on the private sector which has been overburdened.

Today things look wonderful to you but you're not looking forward enough.

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6. What recessionary trends, their economy is heating up, hence the need for them (not us) to increase IRs to cool things down, so that growth becomes sustainable. They ain't going to have a recession.

You are deliberately trying to mislead people RB. Shame on you.

:D

http://www.forbes.com/home/investmentnewsl...oapbox_inl.html

Recession Dead Ahead

James B. Stack, InvesTech Research 06.06.06, 6:30 PM ET

We wish it wasn’t so, and we wish we didn’t have to say it. But today’s economy is on a collision course with a recession. And the most probable starting point is the fourth quarter of this year or early 2007

The yield curve has changed dramatically in the past 24 months, and is as “flat” as we can ever remember seeing it. The danger is the 88% historical probability of a recession that this represents. And if pressures preclude the Fed from easing later this year, one might say the odds of recession are closer to 100%.

If nothing changes in the UK, inflation, interest rates etc then be absolutely sure that the US will lead us into recession and as all the VIs have kept harping on - low unemployment is one of the cornerstones to propping up the UK house prices.

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Trouble is FortunatelyForUsYou'reUpNorth you seem to think that we are immune to the USA's problems.

Is employment really increasing? The only real increases in employment are the NuLab engineered ones. Funnily enough Gordon Brown has frozen their wages which is the signal that this inefficient form of employment has come to an end. From here on we rely on the private sector which has been overburdened.

Today things look wonderful to you but you're not looking forward enough.

according to my EE european friends it is harder to get a job today that it was a year ago....

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according to my EE european friends it is harder to get a job today that it was a year ago....

I think the pinch is taking place everywhere. The good times have made some of us complacent; worse still foolish.

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Mostly complete garbage again there RB - but why let the truth stand in the way !

1. Fair enough, but UK rates anchored at 4.5% or 4.75% if press are to be believed and thats what counts here in the UK.

2. Sorry, but employment is increasing.

3. Affordability, as I understand it has improved marginally I grant you, but people don't appear to be struggling do they.

4. Fair enough, but you fail to mention they are still at low levels historically. Context is all importnat you know.

5. Complete garbage, prices are rising as shown by all surveys and backed up by my eyesight !!

6. What recessionary trends, their economy is heating up, hence the need for them (not us) to increase IRs to cool things down, so that growth becomes sustainable. They ain't going to have a recession.

You are deliberately trying to mislead people RB. Shame on you.

:D

1. IR are rising worldwide and cheap credit comes from Asia where IR are already headed up. Inflation in the UK will force IR up at some point despite Brown's attempts to doctor the CPI:

http://www.platinax.co.uk/news/07-06-2006/...asingly-likely/

This is all the more a concern after accountants BDO Stoy Hayward warned that inflationary pressures are growing, with consumer prices rising 0.6% in April - their largest rise in 5 years.

2. unemployment is rising according to the ONS:

The falling trend in the employment rate may be levelling off
while the trend in the unemployment rate continues to increase.
The number of
people claiming Jobseeker's Allowance benefit has increased.
The number of job vacancies has fallen. Growth in average earnings excluding bonuses is unchanged while growth in average earnings including bonuses has increased.

3. Even the VIs admit affordability is a problem. With the average income in 20k range and the average house around 160k it does not take an economic genius to see there is a problem. Further, FTBs are now almost non-existent with the most recent survey suggesting their numbers are down to around 7%.

4. Agreed. But the all-important trend shows financial distress is rising exponentially.

5. Complete garbage eh? Have you checked the LR statistics for the most recent quarter? Here is a sampling of the huge drops some areas are experiencing--they are a reality check. Things are especially grim up north:

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/shared/spl/hi/in_d...tml/region1.stm

East Riding Of Yorkshire £154,431
-
4.5%
North Lincolnshire £122,869
-
2.7%
Northumberland £149,225
-
8.8%
Stockton-On-Tees £128,643
-5.0%
Darlington £125,556
-
5.6%
Durham £114,329
-
4.3%
Redcar And Cleveland £109,289
-11.2%
Warrington £156,929
-4.5%
Halton £127,289
-
5.3%
Stratford-On-Avon £240,614
-
6.8%
(My area
:)
)
North Warwickshire £162,600
-
6.5%
Rutland £228,672
-
7.7%
City Of Nottingham £119,797
-
5.2%

Not doing so well up north, that is for sure.

6. Recessionary trends: employment, retail section losing jobs fastest, closing car factories, NHS crisis slowing US economy (we are their 2nd largest trading partner).

Edited by Realistbear

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Bit like furiously shovelling sand while the tide rushed in. No amount of plastic buckets and sweat can stop the tide. "No Sea here! Move on! We're all perfectly dry! Glug! Glug!"

It's tragic for the future of the UK that, unlike the legend of King Canute, our glorious NuLab leaders believe in their own infallibility.

IMO, the strongest argument for a HPC is that we've had a Labour government for almost a decade, and the UK hasn't yet had a major financial disaster!

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  • 301 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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