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munimula

Are There Really Still Bulls Out There?

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I can't believe the amount of risk out there now. The US housing market collapsing, the Iran standoff etc.

As this article from Forbes states, US is heading for a recession - is there anything that could be done to avoid this now?

http://www.forbes.com/home/investmentnewsl...oapbox_inl.html

Oil prices could still go to $100 yet and that will crucify the US and us here in the UK.

Seems to me that a US/UK recession is a foregone conclusion and the US will drag us all down with it. It's not like we have a strong economy in the UK to weather this storm, the indebted consumer in the UK is spent out and remember consumption is 2/3 of gdp. Retailers are cutting jobs at the fastest rate in 23 years. The other growth area of jobs - public sector, NHS etc is also spent and is now cutting jobs.

We have inflation that has been building up in the system for years, oil from $10 in 1998 - $70 in 2006 and all these costs only offset by cheaper Chinese goods and retailers and companies trying to swallow the extra costs. They can't do this forever - inflation will come out in the end. While they try to swallow the costs further they will be cutting your jobs to cut costs! That comes first as it isn't easy passing on costs to an indebted consumer.

House prices in this country have peaked - fact. They will come down - fact, what causes them to collapse and what acts as the trigger is yet to be seen but there are plenty of risks queuing up to be that trigger.

Personally I can't wait for the showdown, I wait with baited breath to see the kind of lovely stats coming out of the US now - 30% drop in new home sales etc etc. People in this country are stupid and greedy. Whatever happens we are all responsible for ourselves and if you get burnt in the fall out then you probably deserve to. You didn't have to get that mortgage at 6X your earnings and you didn't have to BTL the younger generation out of homes for yields less than current account rates.

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I can't believe the amount of risk out there now. The US housing market collapsing, the Iran standoff etc.

As this article from Forbes states, US is heading for a recession - is there anything that could be done to avoid this now?

http://www.forbes.com/home/investmentnewsl...oapbox_inl.html

Oil prices could still go to $100 yet and that will crucify the US and us here in the UK.

Seems to me that a US/UK recession is a foregone conclusion and the US will drag us all down with it. It's not like we have a strong economy in the UK to weather this storm, the indebted consumer in the UK is spent out and remember consumption is 2/3 of gdp. Retailers are cutting jobs at the fastest rate in 23 years. The other growth area of jobs - public sector, NHS etc is also spent and is now cutting jobs.

We have inflation that has been building up in the system for years, oil from $10 in 1998 - $70 in 2006 and all these costs only offset by cheaper Chinese goods and retailers and companies trying to swallow the extra costs. They can't do this forever - inflation will come out in the end. While they try to swallow the costs further they will be cutting your jobs to cut costs! That comes first as it isn't easy passing on costs to an indebted consumer.

House prices in this country have peaked - fact. They will come down - fact, what causes them to collapse and what acts as the trigger is yet to be seen but there are plenty of risks queuing up to be that trigger.

Personally I can't wait for the showdown, I wait with baited breath to see the kind of lovely stats coming out of the US now - 30% drop in new home sales etc etc. People in this country are stupid and greedy. Whatever happens we are all responsible for ourselves and if you get burnt in the fall out then you probably deserve to. You didn't have to get that mortgage at 6X your earnings and you didn't have to BTL the younger generation out of homes for yields less than current account rates.

The problem is however that there are no rising rates yet in the UK. In many areas house prices are still going up!

The man on hte street will not be convinced until the nice people on the telly mention the words crash and recession and the bloke next door is being reposessed. IMO this is still some way off.

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I just had occasion to drive through a few roads round where I lived until 2 and a half years ago. Apart from all the SOLD signs - one place I noticed with a Sold sign was on the market when I sold my place. At the time I figured it was at least 50k over priced.

Just checked it on the web. It was on for 25k more than it was 2 and a half years ago and, as I say, it has a Sold sign now.

There was a correction round here, prices did harden. Properties did take 18 months to sell and, when they sold, it was at a reduced price. BUT the bounce which started here in January 06 shows no sign of running out of steam. It seems to be business as usual again. For Sale sign goes up - changes to SOLD within a week or two.

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The problem is however that there are no rising rates yet in the UK. In many areas house prices are still going up!

The man on hte street will not be convinced until the nice people on the telly mention the words crash and recession and the bloke next door is being reposessed. IMO this is still some way off.

but actually if you look at US mortgage rates, longterm 30 year mortgages, the rates are practically the same as before the base rates were hiked from 1% - 5%.

So it isn't the case that we necessarily need higher IR's here - they would help but what has caused the sudden collapse in the US market - probably sentiment change and people squeezed on spending in other areas.

Just like the UK, real world costs in the US have been rising, just like the UK it isn't easy getting pay rises to keep up with these extra costs. Thats why in the US they spend more than they earn, savings rates are negative. People are in debt upto their eyeballs and only their houses were funding their spending in the end. Just like here.

I don't buy into this idea that house prices in the UK are going up, in very limited areas perhaps but if you only look at headline figures from Halifax, Nationwide etc you are missing a very big part of the picture. There are only a very very few areas in positive terrritory that are keeping these headline rates positive.

The picture in most areas is still stagnation since 2004. We are still waiting for the trigger to cause the collapse but it will come.

Smell it in the air?

Maybe you need nasal spray to help clear your nostrils as you're obviously imagining you smell something.

I think it's the smell of BTLers, in the heat with the impending losses they are looking at they are starting to whiff a bit.

I just had occasion to drive through a few roads round where I lived until 2 and a half years ago. Apart from all the SOLD signs - one place I noticed with a Sold sign was on the market when I sold my place. At the time I figured it was at least 50k over priced.

Just checked it on the web. It was on for 25k more than it was 2 and a half years ago and, as I say, it has a Sold sign now.

There was a correction round here, prices did harden. Properties did take 18 months to sell and, when they sold, it was at a reduced price. BUT the bounce which started here in January 06 shows no sign of running out of steam. It seems to be business as usual again. For Sale sign goes up - changes to SOLD within a week or two.

I think people like you confuse the whole picture with talk of sold signs everywhere etc etc.

Where I'm staying in Devon at the moment there is a street which has only For Sale signs. Nothing has sold yet this spring/summer

My uncle has a friend who developed a house, again in Devon - put it on market for £170. Still for sale 6 months later, next door (same house) eventually reduced and sold at £135K. He will lose money selling it for that.

Guy next to me at work on the phone to his sister - about to lose her house as she can't afford the mortgage

Parents in Cornwall - told that there was massive demand where they are - only 5 viewings in 2 months, only 2 serious.

SW London where my flat is - prices the same as 2003-2004 and if anything I'm seeing price reductions right now.

Friend of my girlfriend - buyer of their flat pulled out last minute in Surbiton this week.

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House prices in this country have peaked - fact. They will come down - fact, what causes them to collapse and what acts as the trigger is yet to be seen but there are plenty of risks queuing up to be that trigger.

House prices are slowly rising where I live.

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House prices are slowly rising where I live.

To be honest the point of this post isn't about whether house prices are rising or not. If they are, which I doubt in most areas it will be very shortly lived. I'm not concerned about the constant ramblings on this site about peoples perceptions of how many For Sale or Sold signs there are and if a house is asking £10K more this year then 'house prices are rising'. It's all too subjective. I've got plenty of my own anecdotal evidence and it doesn't give a clear picture although I'd say it's mostly negative and doesn't support the view that prices are rising. I'm not concerned with looking at hear and now, I'm looking ahead, looking at what might happen.

And I see absolutely nothing that will sustain high house prices here. There are so many risks now that one of them surely has to act as the trigger at some point.

The yield curve has changed dramatically in the past 24 months, and is as “flat” as we can ever remember seeing it. The danger is the 88% historical probability of a recession that this represents. And if pressures preclude the Fed from easing later this year, one might say the odds of recession are closer to 100%.

enworb - it would be a bit more useful if you said where you live and why you percieve that prices are rising there?

Edited by munimula

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People in this country are stupid and greedy. Whatever happens we are all responsible for ourselves and if you get burnt in the fall out then you probably deserve to. You didn't have to get that mortgage at 6X your earnings and you didn't have to BTL the younger generation out of homes for yields less than current account rates.

And a awful lot of people strive to own their own home, and why shouldn't they. It's not always greed.

Although there are plenty of people on this site that couldn't afford to get onto the property ladder when prices were far more affordable - there are also those that have waited for a hpc since joining this forum, shouldn't they be held responsible if prices don't crash?

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And a awful lot of people strive to own their own home, and why shouldn't they. It's not always greed.

Although there are plenty of people on this site that couldn't afford to get onto the property ladder when prices were far more affordable - there are also those that have waited for a hpc since joining this forum, shouldn't they be held responsible if prices don't crash?

What does this mean? Please explain... :blink:

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House prices in this country have peaked - fact.

Not a fact, an opinion <_<

They will come down - fact, what causes them to collapse and what acts as the trigger is yet to be seen but there are plenty of risks queuing up to be that trigger.

Again, opinion

Let me present you with some genuine facts. The majority of UK financial institutions (according to AFX research) expect UK interest rates to end the year at 4.50pc; others expect an increase of just 25 basis points. Just maybe the country's leading economists know something you don't.

The number of people employed in the uk is increasing (thank you immigration :) )

Indices show that house prices are continuing to rise across the UK as a whole, and in London in particular.

You mention retail; any dip compares to the record levels of recent years. Manufacturing, according to the EEF, is showing the strongest growth for some time.

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Not a fact, an opinion <_<

Again, opinion

Let me present you with some genuine facts. The majority of UK financial institutions (according to AFX research) expect UK interest rates to end the year at 4.50pc; others expect an increase of just 25 basis points. Just maybe the country's leading economists know something you don't.

The number of people employed in the uk is increasing (thank you immigration :) )

Indices show that house prices are continuing to rise across the UK as a whole, and in London in particular.

You mention retail; any dip compares to the record levels of recent years. Manufacturing, according to the EEF, is showing the strongest growth for some time.

It's a fact - it just hasn't been proven yet. You think we aren't going to go the way of the US? How are we going to avoid that?

Interest rates - it all depends on what happens to inflation. Read my initial posts a bit more carefully and then if you have a good explanation of why inflation will not increase then come back and tell me. I'm not saying that I know but I'm saying that it is highly likely that inflattionary pressures building up in the system will start to come out at some point - who knows when.

Indices - what a load of tosh. Look a bit deeper and you'll see why they are showing rises. Can't be bothered to explain if you just want to look at headline figures like 99% of the UK population then there's not much I can do about that. Maths not a strong point?

Right - manufacturing is going to save the day. Joker, we aren't going to be competitive in manufacturing for years, any growth there is a short term blip.

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but actually if you look at US mortgage rates, longterm 30 year mortgages, the rates are practically the same as before the base rates were hiked from 1% - 5%.

So it isn't the case that we necessarily need higher IR's here - they would help but what has caused the sudden collapse in the US market - probably sentiment change and people squeezed on spending in other areas.

Just like the UK, real world costs in the US have been rising, just like the UK it isn't easy getting pay rises to keep up with these extra costs. Thats why in the US they spend more than they earn, savings rates are negative. People are in debt upto their eyeballs and only their houses were funding their spending in the end. Just like here.

I don't buy into this idea that house prices in the UK are going up, in very limited areas perhaps but if you only look at headline figures from Halifax, Nationwide etc you are missing a very big part of the picture. There are only a very very few areas in positive terrritory that are keeping these headline rates positive.

The picture in most areas is still stagnation since 2004. We are still waiting for the trigger to cause the collapse but it will come.

I think it's the smell of BTLers, in the heat with the impending losses they are looking at they are starting to whiff a bit.

I think people like you confuse the whole picture with talk of sold signs everywhere etc etc.

Where I'm staying in Devon at the moment there is a street which has only For Sale signs. Nothing has sold yet this spring/summer

My uncle has a friend who developed a house, again in Devon - put it on market for £170. Still for sale 6 months later, next door (same house) eventually reduced and sold at £135K. He will lose money selling it for that.

Guy next to me at work on the phone to his sister - about to lose her house as she can't afford the mortgage

Parents in Cornwall - told that there was massive demand where they are - only 5 viewings in 2 months, only 2 serious.

SW London where my flat is - prices the same as 2003-2004 and if anything I'm seeing price reductions right now.

Friend of my girlfriend - buyer of their flat pulled out last minute in Surbiton this week.

I don't dispute what you say. I am also not daft enough to think a SOLD sign means the property has sold or that it sold for asking price.

What I am saying is that the conditions you describe is how the market was around here (East Berkshire) up until the beginning of this year.

An observable and verifiable fact is that London and the South East usually leads the property market in this country - with the rest of the county lagging up to 2 years behind.

Unless something HAPPENS (higher IRs being the only real trigger) you may well find your row of For Sale signs in Devon suddenly turns into a row of SOLD signs in a year's time and the market continues its merry rise.

I thought we were in for a real crash - right up until the IR cut last Autumn. Before then the market was stagnant with falling prices. Now, any falls have been reversed the market is on its way back up.

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I think what we all need to remember is that in the beginning a HPC is like the fair, it doesnt just stay in one place it moves around, some people havnt been visisted by the fair yet. Hopefully we all will in the future so we can have a go on the rides we've been buying tickets for.

That was a good analogy in my head, not so good in written words :)

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I don't dispute what you say. I am also not daft enough to think a SOLD sign means the property has sold or that it sold for asking price.

What I am saying is that the conditions you describe is how the market was around here (East Berkshire) up until the beginning of this year.

An observable and verifiable fact is that London and the South East usually leads the property market in this country - with the rest of the county lagging up to 2 years behind.

Unless something HAPPENS (higher IRs being the only real trigger) you may well find your row of For Sale signs in Devon suddenly turns into a row of SOLD signs in a year's time and the market continues its merry rise.

I thought we were in for a real crash - right up until the IR cut last Autumn. Before then the market was stagnant with falling prices. Now, any falls have been reversed the market is on its way back up.

There was a very good article in MoneyWeek last week that basically analysed the state of the London property market.

The money coming into the market and causing the increase in average London property prices has been mainly from foreigners buying up premium houses - the top end of the market.

As the article stated Knight Frank have said that this money has now dried up.

I live in the SE, SW London and I can catergorically tell you that prices are not higher than 2004 and have not gone up this year and if anything there are now the signs of price reductions going on.

The MoneyWeek article said that it is not wages that is propping up the London market, it is investment and lots of money coming in from outside the UK.

The ripple effect from this years rises will not pass to the rest of the UK where it is wages that are required to prop up the prices. This in part explains why the ripples haven't even been felt in SW London where I live.

I think what we all need to remember is that in the beginning a HPC is like the fair, it doesnt just stay in one place it moves around, some people havnt been visisted by the fair yet.

Superb :lol:

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It's a fact - it just hasn't been proven yet.

Jees, you make it too easy <_< If it hasn't been proven, what are you basing it on? A hunch? Voices in your head?

Interest rates - it all depends on what happens to inflation. Read my initial posts a bit more carefully and then if you have a good explanation of why inflation will not increase then come back and tell me. I'm not saying that I know but I'm saying that it is highly likely that inflattionary pressures building up in the system will start to come out at some point - who knows when.

Indeed - commodities prices easing (you don't dispute this, right?)

Indices - what a load of tosh. Look a bit deeper and you'll see why they are showing rises. Can't be bothered to explain if you just want to look at headline figures like 99% of the UK population then there's not much I can do about that. Maths not a strong point?

Right - manufacturing is going to save the day. Joker, we aren't going to be competitive in manufacturing for years, any growth there is a short term blip.

At this stage, the UK is still holding its own in high-value manufacturing (aerospace, for example). That our factories no longer produce teddy bears and rubber dog turds is irrelevant. As for the house price indices, you surely don't dispute that London has enjoyed something of a mini-boom?

As for maths not being a strong point, I have based my opinion on facts and verifiable sources. You, in contrast, seem to have gazed at a few for sale signs.

Edited by Europa

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Jees, you make it too easy <_< If it hasn't been proven, what are you basing it on? A hunch? Voices in your head?

Indeed - commodities prices easing (you don't dispute this, right?)

At this stage, the UK is still holding its own in high-value manufacturing (aerospace, for example). That our factories no longer produce teddy bears and rubber dog turds is irrelevant. As for the house price indices, you surely don't dispute that London has enjoyed something of a mini-boom?

As for maths not being a strong point, I have based my opinion on facts and verifiable sources. You, in contrast, seem to have gazed at a few for sale signs.

You are showing a distinct lack of knowledge when it comes to what is really going on. See my previous post above about the London property market - a mini-boom fuelled only by incoming foreign money buying premium properties. It's now gone, dried up, min-boom over. It has nothing to do with peoples earnings and ability to buy housing based on wages and therefore will not translate to higher UK property prices. I live in a very nice part of SW London and the ripples certainly haven't been felt there so why do you use this London mini-boom as some sort of evidence that prices can keep going up forever? As I said earlier - if you choose to look at the headline average figures and translate that into prices are going up everywhere then there's not much I can do about that. That's where your lack statistical analysis is letting you down.

As for what I'm basing my predictions on - a lot more knowledge and information than you it would seem as displayed by your total lack of knowledge on what the London mini-boom has been based on and using that as some kind of evidence to support current high prices.

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Looking at prices in London, its obvious there haven’t been big drops, if anything prices are up about 5-10% from this time last year. Personally feel if someone is thinking about buying in London they should not hang around, my reasons for this are as follow. Interests rates are on the up fixed rates are not going to be around much longer, and lenders will not offer good deals as are currently available. For FTB they need to get a mortgage and fix it for 5 or 10 years. Because if prices were to fall say 20% as some on this site believe, and as is said interest rates are the trigger. You will still be priced out as you will not be able to afford the repayments at higher interest rates buying in the future at a lower price. Where as if you bought now and fixed for the medium term, you will be able to erode your debt knowing your payments are fixed for next 5-10 yr period. Over the long term no body can argue that property is not a good buy. Its your home, at the end of the day.

Its very easy for someone to say don’t buy a house, prices are too high, but the way society works is different for many people they need some real security to move forward with their life’s, having children, being close to family and friends, good schools, work commitments etc. Yes renting is an option, but its not for everyone, rents are set to rise further if interest rates go up, this was seen in the 90’s during periods of high interest rates. If it’s the right choice for you then do your research and go for it, you have to take some risks other wise you’ll be stuck with analysis paralysis.

To say the whole housing market will crash doesn’t quite make sense, instead I think what we have seen is falls in some parts and rises in others, while some areas of the UK have remained static, there inst just one housing market but lots of macro ones, which are influenced by factors specific to that region.

A major crash and by that I mean falls of over 20% nationwide is highly unlikely, even if we do go into recession, and although a lot of people are counting on one to pick up a bargain, its not going to happen. I guess there will be a lot of angry people who missed the opportunity to buy when they could have afforded a house with a struggle; it’s never been easy, ultimately they’ll want someone to blame…. Bear Hunting Season.

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To be honest the point of this post isn't about whether house prices are rising or not. If they are, which I doubt in most areas it will be very shortly lived. I'm not concerned about the constant ramblings on this site about peoples perceptions of how many For Sale or Sold signs there are and if a house is asking £10K more this year then 'house prices are rising'. It's all too subjective. I've got plenty of my own anecdotal evidence and it doesn't give a clear picture although I'd say it's mostly negative and doesn't support the view that prices are rising. I'm not concerned with looking at hear and now, I'm looking ahead, looking at what might happen.

And I see absolutely nothing that will sustain high house prices here. There are so many risks now that one of them surely has to act as the trigger at some point.

enworb - it would be a bit more useful if you said where you live and why you percieve that prices are rising there?

Why is your anectdotal "evidence" any less subjective than anyone else's experience of sold or for sale signs or asking prices?

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You are showing a distinct lack of knowledge when it comes to what is really going on. See my previous post above about the London property market - a mini-boom fuelled only by incoming foreign money buying premium properties. It's now gone, dried up, min-boom over. It has nothing to do with peoples earnings and ability to buy housing based on wages and therefore will not translate to higher UK property prices. I live in a very nice part of SW London and the ripples certainly haven't been felt there so why do you use this London mini-boom as some sort of evidence that prices can keep going up forever? As I said earlier - if you choose to look at the headline average figures and translate that into prices are going up everywhere then there's not much I can do about that. That's where your lack statistical analysis is letting you down.

As for what I'm basing my predictions on - a lot more knowledge and information than you it would seem as displayed by your total lack of knowledge on what the London mini-boom has been based on and using that as some kind of evidence to support current high prices.

Most of the indices show London rising slightly this year after a period of stagnation. The article you're referring to was primarily about commercial property, with anecdotal reports that a lot of high-end property is going to international investors. But it's not just at the high end that prices are moving. The averages for sale prices for terraces and flats in most parts of North London (my bit of town) are certainly up this year. not by a lot, but certainly not going down at this stage.

I don't think anything that dramatic is happening in "normal" London property, but I certainly don't "smell a crash" in London yet - so I don't think accusing Europa of a "total lack of knowledge" based on one semi-relevant Moneyweek article and a bit of local anecdotal is really a rebuttal...

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Why is your anectdotal "evidence" any less subjective than anyone else's experience of sold or for sale signs or asking prices?

I don't disagree with you - it is subjective however there are degrees of subjectivity.

For example - 'property is selling quickly and prices are rising' based on Sold signs is far more subjective than saying 'My uncle actually knows somebody that developed a house, for sale at £170K and is still on the market after 6 months and next door has been reduced and only sold at £135K'

See what I mean?

I don't think anything that dramatic is happening in "normal" London property, but I certainly don't "smell a crash" in London yet - so I don't think accusing Europa of a "total lack of knowledge" based on one semi-relevant Moneyweek article and a bit of local anecdotal is really a rebuttal...

So Frank Knight, possibly the biggest EA of premium property in London saying that the influx of money buying up the premium properties at £4M+ has gone is not relevant.

Oh and lets not forget that the last 3 years have been pretty good for the financial markets, the other driver of London house prices in bonuses, high paid jobs etc. Think things are going to be as good there over the next few years?

You people are a joke. Shame you won't be found at this site when prices are falling to engage in discussions about how wrong you got it.

Edited by munimula

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I don't disagree with you - it is subjective however there are degrees of subjectivity.

For example - 'property is selling quickly and prices are rising' based on Sold signs is far more subjective than saying 'My uncle actually knows somebody that developed a house, for sale at £170K and is still on the market after 6 months and next door has been reduced and only sold at £135K'

See what I mean?

So Frank Knight, possibly the biggest EA of premium property in London saying that the influx of money buying up the premium properties at £4M+ has gone is not relevant.

Oh and lets not forget that the last 3 years have been pretty good for the financial markets, the other driver of London house prices in bonuses, high paid jobs etc. Think things are going to be as good there over the next few years?

You people are a joke. Shame you won't be found at this site when prices are falling to engage in discussions about how wrong you got it.

Not sure about the "you people" bit-it all sounds a bit Alan Partridge to me. I am a bear who wants a crash but I see few signs in London apart from property remaining unsold at sticky prices. I wish it was different but from where I sit it is not.

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So Frank Knight, possibly the biggest EA of premium property in London saying that the influx of money buying up the premium properties at £4M+ has gone is not relevant.

Properties selling for GBP4m plus are a niche - not entirely relevant to the market as a whole. To reiterate Magpie's point, it is often said on this site that foreign money accounts for 40 per cent plus of property transactions in the city, yet you ignore the fact that this refers to com prop.

Also, how do you explain the strong activity at the bottom of the London market?

Oh and lets not forget that the last 3 years have been pretty good for the financial markets, the other driver of London house prices in bonuses, high paid jobs etc. Think things are going to be as good there over the next few years?

I take it you've been reading the FT this week? Did you see the headline (think it was yesterday) along the lines that M&A activity remains extremely strong? You are aware that those who actually work in the city remain (generally) fairly bullish

You people are a joke. Shame you won't be found at this site when prices are falling to engage in discussions about how wrong you got it.

I get the impression that you were expecting the usual HPC group-hug from fellow believers when you started this thread. As soon as you come up against counter-arguements, you start hurling insults and throwing your toys out of the pram. This is a forum for debate. Get a grip <_<

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So Frank Knight, possibly the biggest EA of premium property in London saying that the influx of money buying up the premium properties at £4M+ has gone is not relevant....

You people are a joke. Shame you won't be found at this site when prices are falling to engage in discussions about how wrong you got it.

Knight Frank do say that the foreign money is shifting from £4m houses to £1-2 million houses. And no it's not completely irrelevant - falls at the top end will shift some of the indices downward, and may have a knock-on effect on lower parts of the market. But I think it is disingenuous to jump from this to any serious price falls yet. Knight Frank's own conclusion is merely that the "very hot period" we have just experienced is finishing and that price rises will slow down. I don't claim that the said "very hot period" meant anything much outside of prime property. Elsewhere there has been a fairly busy market with modest increases, which will probably slow a bit over the rest of the year. I'm not making any wild claims here, just pointing out that the article doesn't really support your claims.

Not sure what you mean by "you people" - I find it vaguely irksome as I feel you are labelling me. Like you I live in London, for a long time I didn't have a house. I chose to buy for complicated reasons at the end of last year. I don't want high HPI - I'd even be happy to see some falls , as that's the most likely way for me to move on, and because I do think high HPI has done a lot of harm.

But I do take issue with slack bear arguments and judgmental statements. I think it is misguided and potentially unwise to be too completely attached to the idea of a crash because if the crash doesn't happen, or only happens in real terms (not nominal) you may end up losing out through being too dogmatic. And I don't like you calling your parents greedy and stupid for wanting to get a decent price for their home, or saying that anyone who gets hurt in a crash will deserve it. We're all making difficult decisions in a crazy situation and some of us will end up getting hurt one way or another - playing the blame game is hardly going to help...

Edited by Magpie

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Properties selling for GBP4m plus are a niche - not entirely relevant to the market as a whole. To reiterate Magpie's point, it is often said on this site that foreign money accounts for 40 per cent plus of property transactions in the city, yet you ignore the fact that this refers to com prop.

Also, how do you explain the strong activity at the bottom of the London market?

I take it you've been reading the FT this week? Did you see the headline (think it was yesterday) along the lines that M&A activity remains extremely strong? You are aware that those who actually work in the city remain (generally) fairly bullish

I get the impression that you were expecting the usual HPC group-hug from fellow believers when you started this thread. As soon as you come up against counter-arguements, you start hurling insults and throwing your toys out of the pram. This is a forum for debate. Get a grip <_<

Possibly not at least that seems to be the view of many. There is much here of value but unfortunately much that resembles a therapy site for people in denial.

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  • 301 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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