Are Depressions Cyclical Too?

[libitina]

Is there a pattern to them?

People say we're overdue a recession as they seem to appear every so many years. Are depressions the same?

[LargelyIgnorant]

Is there a pattern to them?

People say we're overdue a recession as they seem to appear every so many years. Are depressions the same?

That's perhaps why 'they' put Helicopter Ben in charge of the Fed - Whilst his spooking of the markets shows he is politically unsuitable for the job, his specialist area was the Great Depression. Who better to be in charge of trying to avoid the next one?

From this page about Bernake, found a review on his book on the Great Depression. Will it be different this time? Perhaps his book will give some insight on how he will attempt to avoid this one. The nice thing about having an academic in charge is that they've already published an awful lot of information on how they think.

[Saving For a Space Ship]

Good question Libitina. I don't know, but did a google on 'economic depression cycle/s' & came up with a few links . Looks like they are saying 20-25 years.

1. Cayce, Edgar, “25 Year Economic Depression Cycle” in Mandeville, M.W., Return of the Phoenix: Book Two - The Great Break-Up, Medium MetaSyn, 1999, p. 181.

from biblio of scary book 'Like Facing the Economic Landslide of 2006 - 2007

Michael Wells Mandeville "Someone says that already it is begun… you are ready?"

ISBN 8875075433

http://translate.google.com/translate?hl=e...%26as_qdr%3Dall

2. The Coming Economic Collapse Of 2006

by Michael Wells Mandeville- Book Announcement or download PDF Version For Printers

http://www.michaelmandeville.com/collapse2...ookannounce.htm

"The whole analysis is set within the framework of eight 25 year economic depression cycles since 1800. The reader can see from the discussion of Manifest Destiny I, II, III, and the Great Depression of 1930-1936 what is likely to happen during the next five years. "

3. Popular Misconceptions About Science

SCIENCE IS NOT "STATISTICS"

http://www.larouchepub.com/lar/1997/non_linearity.html

But for the treasonous elements, such as the House of Morgan and the August Belmont influence, serving as British agents inside the U.S.A., London could not have succeeded in creating, "George Soros" style, the financial crisis of 1873, nor in corrupting a sufficient number of members of the U.S. Congress to pass the Specie Resumption Act and related "British gold standard" measures which kept the U.S. in chronic financially-induced economic depression-cycles during the 1877-1907 interval.

Edited June 6, 2006 by Saving For a Space Ship

[libitina]

Chart 103: Sunspot Cycles & Major Economic Contractions 1926-2003

How strong is this historical connection between major economic downturns and the sunspot cycles? We can learn more about this connection of sunspots to economic downturns by directly graphing them together in Chart 103, above. Quite clearly, Chart 103 shows us that there is a rather strong connection between major recessions and the peaks of the sunspot cycles. There was one major exception, the last Great Depression, the bottom year of which (1933) can be seen in the trough between sunspot peaks. The next Great Depression may parallel this exception nearly to a T.

Can this historical connection be used to predict stock prices? Is there a correlation between sunspot peaks and the Dow Jones Industrials? (Dow Jones Industrials: these are select stock prices often referred to as the DJI) There is no usable connection except as a harbinger of a coming break. There is zero correlation between daily price movements and average daily sunspot numbers. Is there a connection between long term historical trends in the prices and average monthly or annual trends in the numbers of the sunspots? Not really, the only direct connection that appears is as a "breaking" signal. During a sunspot peak, the speculative Bull Run bubbles in stocks "break" and an economic recession begins fairly soon thereafter. This often leaves the stock prices headed down even while sunspots are still rising. This destroys any statistical averages which can be used for prediction.

As can be seen in the graph, there is a decidedly strong parallel between recessions and the peaks. It has been consistent throughout most of the century with one notable exception. The bottom year of the Great Depression in 1932/33 was at the bottom of the sunspot cycle. The collapse of the stock market, however, paralleled right on the peak of the solar cycle in late 1929. Stock prices slid as sunspot numbers slid, and the economy wallowed as sunspot counts reached 0.

We may be paralleling the 1929 to 1933 era. There is probably a strong tendency in this era to continue to slide after the bubble break in 2000 for a few years until all of the speculation has been squeezed out of stock prices. From the Bears, we already know that this means stock prices generally must fall yet another 35% to 75% from their levels in June 2003, depending upon the industry and the company.

This will eventually probably be the outcome of the current 25 year long depression cycle and we are likely to catch up with this inevitability in 2006 and 2007. In the meantime, most likely we are currently still buoyed up by massive subsidy stimulation, 70 years of institutional barriers, and various social security buffers. This may be enough to create a very modest "faux" bubble amidst a "jobless" economic recovery.

http://www.michaelmandeville.com/earthmoni...ry.htm#Chart101

Seems it's nothing to do with Gordon, but sun spots instead

Edited June 6, 2006 by libitina

[hedi]

they have said theat there is usually an economic depression every 70 years or so. 1930s ,1850s ( the one people dont remember), 1790s.

[Saving For a Space Ship]

http://www.michaelmandeville.com/earthmoni...ry.htm#Chart101

Seems it's nothing to do with Gordon, but sun spots instead

Sorry, my googling was too speedy on that part

[libitina]

Sorry, my googling was too speedy on that part

No, don't apologise. It was an interesting, if a little wacky, read.

So, if they're every 70 years or so , on average, we should be due one in the not too distant future then...............?

[Prude]

Enjoyed reading much of the material on the this site - thanks for the link.

There is a Presentation on the site that is very informative with a chart describing what the situation is like during each of the phases of the Kondratieff Gold cycle. The phases are in seasons. Seems we are at the start of winter as..

Autumn was charcterised by;

"Massive increase in debt due to asset bubbles"

"Stock market reaches euphorioc peak to signal the start of winter"

In early winter;

"Gold prices rise from market low and rise rapidly"

"Unemployment starts from market low to reach exponential levels"

"Credit crunch as rates rise"

Later in winter;

"Consumer confidence reaches point of despair"

"Significant bankruptcies in all sectors; Government, consumer, corporate"

"Banking crisis - bank failures"

"International currency crisis"

The cycle suggests winter will last until approx 2020. Best investments during this period; Cash, Gold, Bonds (after price peak)