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IMupNorth

Its Not A Certainty You Know !

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Its that time of the month again ... IR and all that.

The hysteria on here about IR rises is becoming wilder and more desperate all the time. However, despite what you lot on here think, an IR rise is no where near a done deal - either this month or even into the future.

If it was so obvious an IR rise was required, don't you think the MPC would just get on with it and raise IR by 0.25% this month ?

The reality is that the economy is doing rather nicely, employment is growing (and thus compensates for the increasing unemployment people keep cheering about on here). Inflation medium term is still constrained at the 2% level.

The £ is higher than the BoE would like (despite all that talk 6 weeks ago about the £'s imminent collapse) and shares and commodities have had a set back - all tend to be deflationary.

A couple of bits of negative signs i.e. retail spending slows, house price rises slow and you can wave any chance of a IR rise goodbye.

Your dreamed of and long awaited HPC is a long way of yet, my desperado's

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Guest Baffled_by_it_all

Well I'm banking on a 0.25% hike in July or August. Lots of banks seem to agree and mortgage rates are already going up.

I think you're flying in the face of a global trend here. Never mind, at least you believe it.

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I agree entirely, you should go out and get some of that cheap money that is flooding the streets because you know better than the worlds banks, and financial institutions.

I can understand why you would think this way, being up North, in the Soviet Block whereby 70% of the population work in public services, but as in the darkest days of the Soviet Era, it will come to an end and when it does, I would change your name to I'm F*cked up North.

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To say that if an interest rate rise was needed they would do it now is like saying that if you're baking a cake, if you're going to take it out of the oven right now even if it's not cooked. Timing may have something to do with it.

Billy Shears

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Its that time of the month again ... IR and all that.

The hysteria on here about IR rises is becoming wilder and more desperate all the time. However, despite what you lot on here think, an IR rise is no where near a done deal - either this month or even into the future.

Your dreamed of and long awaited HPC is a long way of yet, my desperado's

YAWN! :rolleyes:

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/5046662.stm

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I can understand why you would think this way, being up North, in the Soviet Block whereby 70% of the population work in public services.

70% up north in public sector work.

Another statistical piece of made-up shite as per usual. Another HPC myth.

1292A.gif

"Public sector employment as a proportion of all in employment by region and country of workplace, headcount, four quarter average to June 2005"

http://www.statistics.gov.uk/cci/nugget.asp?id=1292

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http://today.reuters.com/investing/finance...AL-WRAPUP-3.XML

The ECB meets on Thursday and is widely expected to raise rates by at least 25 basis points, with speculation mounting after stronger-than-forecast euro zone inflation data that it might opt for a more aggressive move.

http://www.tiscali.co.uk/news/newswire.php...y_template.html

"Overall, the service sector report will fuel speculation that the Bank of England will raise interest rates before the end of the year, although much will still depend on the strength of consumer spending over the coming months." Expectations have been growing in financial markets that the MPC’s next move in rates will be up from 4.5 percent, though not when it meets this week.

TTRTRates I am afraid.

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Well I'm banking on a 0.25% hike in July or August. Lots of banks seem to agree and mortgage rates are already going up.

I think you're flying in the face of a global trend here. Never mind, at least you believe it.

And a lot of leading economists believe it, too.

Consider this poll by AFX News; of those asked, 19 expect rates to remain static until the end of the year. 15 believe there will be a 0.25pc rise by December. As ImUpNorth said, it is by no means certain.

Now, who's first to shout VIs, conspiracy, etc :P

FORECASTER JUNE END-2006

4CAST 4.50 4.50

ABN Amro 4.50 4.75

Bank of America 4.50 4.50

Bank of New York 4.50 4.25

Barclays Capital 4.50 4.75

Bear Stearns 4.50 4.50

BNP Paribas 4.50 4.75

Bridgewell Securities 4.50 5.00

CALYON 4.50 4.50

Capital Economics 4.50 4.50

CEBR 4.50 4.50

CIBC World Markets 4.50 4.75

Citigroup 4.50 4.50

CSFB 4.50 4.75

Deutsche Bank 4.50 4.50

Dresdner Kleinwort Wasserstein 4.50 4.25

ECU Group 4.50 4.75

Global Insight 4.50 4.25

HBOS 4.50 4.50

HSBC 4.50 4.50

ING Barings 4.50 4.75

Investec 4.50 4.75

JP Morgan 4.50 4.75

Lehman Brothers 4.50 4.50

Lloyds TSB 4.50 4.75

Lombard Street Research 4.50 4.75

Monument Securities 4.50 4.50

Morgan Stanley 4.50 4.75

NIESR 4.50 4.75

Nomura 4.50 4.50

Rabobank 4.50 4.50

RBOS 4.50 4.50

Schroders 4.50 4.50

UBS 4.50 4.75

Williams de Broe 4.50 4.75

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70% up north in public sector work.

Another statistical piece of made-up shite as per usual. Another HPC myth.

1292A.gif

"Public sector employment as a proportion of all in employment by region and country of workplace, headcount, four quarter average to June 2005"

http://www.statistics.gov.uk/cci/nugget.asp?id=1292

Yeah but, no but..........

Add the numbers that rely on public sector employment. Local council contractors. Defense industry. Suppliers of every shape and size. 70% may be more realistic when you look at the collateral jobs that depend on Gordon's spending.

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Britain's northern 'soviets' swell on Brown handouts

David Smith and Claire Newell

Regions receive higher levels of public spending than former communist countries

THE growth in public spending in northern areas of Britain is so rampant that it is resulting in the “sovietisation” of swathes of the country, new figures show.

Gordon Brown, the chancellor, has pushed up national public spending beyond the levels of former communist countries such as Poland, the Czech Republic and Slovakia.

The dependence on the public sector of the north of England, Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland has grown so sharply over the past year that many areas are now significantly more reliant on public spending than countries such as Sweden, known for the bloated size of its welfare state.

The new figures, compiled by analysts at the Centre for Economics and Business Research (CEBR) and to be released in a report tomorrow, show that between 2001-02 and 2005-06, public spending grew from 38.9% to 43% of gross domestic product.

The national increase over the past year, from 42% to 43%, disguises the fact that in southern regions dependence on the state has barely risen, while in northern areas it has jumped sharply.

The reliance on the public sector varies between regions, from just 33.4% in London to 71.3% in Northern Ireland. The public spending share in Northern Ireland has risen from 65.2% to its present level in four years; Wales has gone up from 56.3% to 62.4%; the northeast from 56.4% to 61.5%; Scotland from 50% to 54.9% and the northwest from 47.8% to 52.6%.

“In some regions high public spending is a reaction to the problems of economic deprivation,” said Professor Doug McWilliams, head of the CEBR. “But what is noteworthy is that the public spending share has risen much faster than can be explained by this.”

The “sovietisation” of parts of Britain as a result of Brown’s huge increases in public spending looks even more dramatic when the figures are adjusted for comparison with other countries. On this basis, public spending is equivalent to 76.2% of the size of the Northern Ireland economy this year, 66.2% in Wales, 64.9% in the northeast, 57.7% in Scotland and 56.1% in the northwest.

This compares with 56.1% in high-spending Sweden, 54.1% in France, 51.9% in former communist Hungary, 51.5% in Denmark, 46% in Germany, 42.6% in the Czech Republic, 41.2% in Poland and 36.3% in Slovakia.

Sir Digby Jones, director- general of the CBI, the employers’ organisation, said that he was increasingly concerned about the “crowding out” of the private sector by a rapidly expanding public sector. “I’m very, very worried about this,” he said. “The private sector is responsible for around 62% of GDP in China — a communist, totalitarian regime.”

In the northeast of “the fifth largest economy in the world” there is a mirror image, he pointed out, with the public sector responsible for nearly 62% of GDP.

Tony Travers, director of the Greater London Group at the London School of Economics, said the differences were due to the weakness of the private sector in large parts of the UK.

“What really varies is the scale of the private sector economy,” he said. “In the southeast, the east and London, the scale of the private sector is very much greater.

“All of this raises the question of whether public spending is a good or a bad thing. Thirty or 40 years ago regional planners would have said that the thing to do to close the north-south divide would be to shift public spending north. The thing that makes economies grow is the vibrancy and success of the private sector.”

John Adams, director of research at the Institute for Public Policy Research North, agreed that the figures reflected big economic differences between the regions.

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if there was anyway to guarantee a fixed IR run like this for at least 25 years i would buy a house.

trouble is. as soon as i sign up the shit will go down and ill be riding high on an 8x salary mortgage at 8%.

or i can choose to gamble and wait another 2 years.

also. if they crash money will become tighter and i might not be then confident enough to buy until the economy rises again. the whole cycle similar to 1989 - 1995. now thats a 5/6 year wait.

i wonder sometimes if im just being over cautious......and then i see the amount required for a deposit......im comfused.

heart says wait. mind says wait. everything else says buy now.

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L J

Good luck to the people up north. The way they were treated by Thatcher was an abomination and the Tory party should pay reparation for what they are responsible for. If it was not for public sector investment up there they would still be living a poverty stricken nightmare

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And a lot of leading economists believe it, too.

Consider this poll by AFX News; of those asked, 19 expect rates to remain static until the end of the year. 15 believe there will be a 0.25pc rise by December. As ImUpNorth said, it is by no means certain.

Now, who's first to shout VIs, conspiracy, etc :P

FORECASTER JUNE END-2006

4CAST 4.50 4.50

ABN Amro 4.50 4.75

Bank of America 4.50 4.50

Bank of New York 4.50 4.25

Barclays Capital 4.50 4.75

Bear Stearns 4.50 4.50

BNP Paribas 4.50 4.75

Bridgewell Securities 4.50 5.00

CALYON 4.50 4.50

Capital Economics 4.50 4.50

CEBR 4.50 4.50

CIBC World Markets 4.50 4.75

Citigroup 4.50 4.50

CSFB 4.50 4.75

Deutsche Bank 4.50 4.50

Dresdner Kleinwort Wasserstein 4.50 4.25

ECU Group 4.50 4.75

Global Insight 4.50 4.25

HBOS 4.50 4.50

HSBC 4.50 4.50

ING Barings 4.50 4.75

Investec 4.50 4.75

JP Morgan 4.50 4.75

Lehman Brothers 4.50 4.50

Lloyds TSB 4.50 4.75

Lombard Street Research 4.50 4.75

Monument Securities 4.50 4.50

Morgan Stanley 4.50 4.75

NIESR 4.50 4.75

Nomura 4.50 4.50

Rabobank 4.50 4.50

RBOS 4.50 4.50

Schroders 4.50 4.50

UBS 4.50 4.75

Williams de Broe 4.50 4.75

Why do you, or anyone, take any notice of what these dipsticks say? Every year they ask the same dipsticks to predict where the stock market will be at the end of the year.

The first thing to observe is that they all say 'no real idea but my guess is ....' And these people are paid for their opinions. Yet they are all taken by surprise when the market suddenly plummets 500 points. If they all know so much about it, how is it none of them can predict it?

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Its that time of the month again ... IR and all that.

The hysteria on here about IR rises is becoming wilder and more desperate all the time. However, despite what you lot on here think, an IR rise is no where near a done deal - either this month or even into the future.

If it was so obvious an IR rise was required, don't you think the MPC would just get on with it and raise IR by 0.25% this month ?

The reality is that the economy is doing rather nicely, employment is growing (and thus compensates for the increasing unemployment people keep cheering about on here). Inflation medium term is still constrained at the 2% level.

The £ is higher than the BoE would like (despite all that talk 6 weeks ago about the £'s imminent collapse) and shares and commodities have had a set back - all tend to be deflationary.

A couple of bits of negative signs i.e. retail spending slows, house price rises slow and you can wave any chance of a IR rise goodbye.

Your dreamed of and long awaited HPC is a long way of yet, my desperado's

Perhaps employment is rising amongst pensioners who need money to survive? They would not be in the normal employent population so unemployment can rise at the same time as employment?

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L J

Good luck to the people up north. The way they were treated by Thatcher was an abomination and the Tory party should pay reparation for what they are responsible for. If it was not for public sector investment up there they would still be living a poverty stricken nightmare

They brought much of these problems upon themselves, most people will remember the strikes, the rubbish in the streets, and how the North of England constantly held the Country to Ransom with union muscle.

Thank God!! those dark days are now over, where unskilled and uneducated individuals dictate the future of the Country.

Roll on Conservative rule, and their first job must be to smash those Soviet Teaching Unions currently holding the Children of this nation to ransom again!!.

Then they should move on to smashing the Soviet Style Culture of the state owes me a living, we are seing far too much of, particularly in the North of England.

The sooner everybody starts working for their bread and butter and not relying on the taxes of envy from the Extremist New Labour Party the better.

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They brought much of these problems upon themselves, most people will remember the strikes, the rubbish in the streets, and how the North of England constantly held the Country to Ransom with union muscle.

Thank God!! those dark days are now over, where unskilled and uneducated individuals dictate the future of the Country.

Roll on Conservative rule, and their first job must be to smash those Soviet Teaching Unions currently holding the Children of this nation to ransom again!!.

Then they should move on to smashing the Soviet Style Culture of the state owes me a living, we are seing far too much of, particularly in the North of England.

The sooner everybody starts working for their bread and butter and not relying on the taxes of envy from the Extremist New Labour Party the better.

I can't forget the rubbish you write

True working people of this country are not envious, that is the terminology of the guilt ridden grabbing classes. I do resent it when genuine people with a grievance get lumped into being influenced by commies etc. It’s post cold war now, so we could be being brain washed by Muslims as they are the new bogie men.

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They brought much of these problems upon themselves, most people will remember the strikes, the rubbish in the streets, and how the North of England constantly held the Country to Ransom with union muscle.

I am no fan of New Labour, but you write such divisive drivel that it just illustrates why many of us got rid of the Conservatives in the first place. Most of us have moved on from this sort of posturing - we would rather have pragmatic politicians who are capable of sensible decision-making than deluded ideologues such as you. It makes me wonder whether you are actually a New Labour stooge paid to write such nonsense!

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Thank God!! those dark days are now over, where unskilled and uneducated individuals dictate the future of the Country

I'm hoping that was irony considering the nuLab government we have at the moment...????

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They brought much of these problems upon themselves, most people will remember the strikes, the rubbish in the streets, and how the North of England constantly held the Country to Ransom with union muscle.

Thank God!! those dark days are now over, where unskilled and uneducated individuals dictate the future of the Country.

Roll on Conservative rule, and their first job must be to smash those Soviet Teaching Unions currently holding the Children of this nation to ransom again!!.

Then they should move on to smashing the Soviet Style Culture of the state owes me a living, we are seing far too much of, particularly in the North of England.

The sooner everybody starts working for their bread and butter and not relying on the taxes of envy from the Extremist New Labour Party the better.

I have never read so much offensive rubbish, one of the things I liked about this site is that it had a diverse range of opinions from bulls, bears, from up north and down south, many agree that we are in the middle of a housing bubble. But you seem to have a particular axe to grind, I don't think you add anything at all to the debates

I find your post so offensive it is making me wonder if your not a stooge of some sort!

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Its that time of the month again ... IR and all that.

The hysteria on here about IR rises is becoming wilder and more desperate all the time. However, despite what you lot on here think, an IR rise is no where near a done deal - either this month or even into the future.

If it was so obvious an IR rise was required, don't you think the MPC would just get on with it and raise IR by 0.25% this month ?

The reality is that the economy is doing rather nicely, employment is growing (and thus compensates for the increasing unemployment people keep cheering about on here). Inflation medium term is still constrained at the 2% level.

The £ is higher than the BoE would like (despite all that talk 6 weeks ago about the £'s imminent collapse) and shares and commodities have had a set back - all tend to be deflationary.

A couple of bits of negative signs i.e. retail spending slows, house price rises slow and you can wave any chance of a IR rise goodbye.

Your dreamed of and long awaited HPC is a long way of yet, my desperado's

When the financial leaders of the world for a group called the "International Monetary Fund" The IMF, when they draw in the greatest financial minds and they themselves are the movers and the shakers of the worlds economies.. When this group makes repeated warnings about the UK housing marker, comments backed up by Mervin King..

When the lands registry shows more areas dropping then rising..

With all this and the Nationwide calling time on the market..

With all this I would question my own perspective if I believed the Halifax..

This has not been about housing it has only been about the sale of credit..

The bank did not want you to buy the house.. they wanted to sell you credit..

Low inflation.... Damnit.. understand what that meand to long term lending costs...

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I agree entirely, you should go out and get some of that cheap money that is flooding the streets because you know better than the worlds banks, and financial institutions.

I can understand why you would think this way, being up North, in the Soviet Block whereby 70% of the population work in public services, but as in the darkest days of the Soviet Era, it will come to an end and when it does, I would change your name to I'm F*cked up North.

Laurejon,

Great Post, i burst out laughing towards the end, Well done!

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This has not been about housing it has only been about the sale of credit..

The bank did not want you to buy the house.. they wanted to sell you credit..

Funny how they tend to only lend these huge amounts when secured on the property you buy.

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And a lot of leading economists believe it, too.

Consider this poll by AFX News; of those asked, 19 expect rates to remain static until the end of the year. 15 believe there will be a 0.25pc rise by December. As ImUpNorth said, it is by no means certain.

Now, who's first to shout VIs, conspiracy, etc :P

FORECASTER JUNE END-2006

4CAST 4.50 4.50

ABN Amro 4.50 4.75

Bank of America 4.50 4.50

Bank of New York 4.50 4.25

Barclays Capital 4.50 4.75

Bear Stearns 4.50 4.50

BNP Paribas 4.50 4.75

Bridgewell Securities 4.50 5.00

CALYON 4.50 4.50

Capital Economics 4.50 4.50

CEBR 4.50 4.50

CIBC World Markets 4.50 4.75

Citigroup 4.50 4.50

CSFB 4.50 4.75

Deutsche Bank 4.50 4.50

Dresdner Kleinwort Wasserstein 4.50 4.25

ECU Group 4.50 4.75

Global Insight 4.50 4.25

HBOS 4.50 4.50

HSBC 4.50 4.50

ING Barings 4.50 4.75

Investec 4.50 4.75

JP Morgan 4.50 4.75

Lehman Brothers 4.50 4.50

Lloyds TSB 4.50 4.75

Lombard Street Research 4.50 4.75

Monument Securities 4.50 4.50

Morgan Stanley 4.50 4.75

NIESR 4.50 4.75

Nomura 4.50 4.50

Rabobank 4.50 4.50

RBOS 4.50 4.50

Schroders 4.50 4.50

UBS 4.50 4.75

Williams de Broe 4.50 4.75

Informative post.

Could you now find what these same 30 or so were saying 6 months ago. I suspect that the majority were predicting falls. That didn't happen either.

NDL

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  • 338 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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