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Builders Calling An End To H P I

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Saturday, June 3, 2006 - Page updated at 12:00 AM

3rd major homebuilder trims earnings outlook

By Brian Charlton

The Associated Press

DETROIT — Pulte Homes on Friday became the latest major homebuilder to lower its full-year earnings outlook as the housing market continues to cool. Its shares tumbled more than 5 percent to a new 52-week low.
All three companies cited large dips in new orders and jumps in cancellation rates in the second quarter on top of rising interest rates and larger inventories.
"Buyer demand through April and May has been below expectations," Richard Dugas Jr., Pulte's president and chief executive, said in a statement.
Home prices should start to dip as companies offer incentives and discounts and investors, who bought up many homes during the boom, sell their assets, said Rick Murray, an analyst from Raymond James & Associates.
"
I think it's safe to say the housing boom is over
,"
Murray said.

http://www.latimes.com/business/la-fi-pult...ack=1&cset=true

Standard Pacific said net orders were off in California, Florida and Arizona, contributing to a
41% drop
in April and May compared with a year earlier.

It does not get much better than this. Investors getting hit hardest as they have to sell of assets.

Edited by Realistbear

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Saturday, June 3, 2006 - Page updated at 12:00 AM

3rd major homebuilder trims earnings outlook

By Brian Charlton

The Associated Press

DETROIT — Pulte Homes on Friday became the latest major homebuilder to lower its full-year earnings outlook as the housing market continues to cool. Its shares tumbled more than 5 percent to a new 52-week low.
All three companies cited large dips in new orders and jumps in cancellation rates in the second quarter on top of rising interest rates and larger inventories.
"Buyer demand through April and May has been below expectations," Richard Dugas Jr., Pulte's president and chief executive, said in a statement.
Home prices should start to dip as companies offer incentives and discounts and investors, who bought up many homes during the boom, sell their assets, said Rick Murray, an analyst from Raymond James & Associates.
"
I think it's safe to say the housing boom is over
,"
Murray said.

http://www.latimes.com/business/la-fi-pult...ack=1&cset=true

Standard Pacific said net orders were off in California, Florida and Arizona, contributing to a
41% drop
in April and May compared with a year earlier.

It does not get much better than this. Investors getting hit hardest as they have to sell of assets.

Does anybody really give a monkeys about what is happening in the States (apart from the yanks) ?!!!!

It has no bearing on what is happening over here - out IR cycle and levels of, are independant of the US and so is our housing market. If you do't realise this from the past few years, then you are truly deperate.

How long have our IRs been roughly 4.5% +/-0.25% is it about 2 years now .... so how can anyone make the link with US IRs when they have gone from 1% to 5%.

Whats happening in the US housing market has diddly squat with the UK.

I just wish you would be honest with people RB , rather than keep feeding them irrelevant rubbish, just to make yourself feel better. Your behaviour is as bad as the VIs you love to rubbish.

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Does anybody really give a monkeys about what is happening in the States (apart from the yanks) ?!!!!

It has no bearing on what is happening over here - out IR cycle and levels of, are independant of the US and so is our housing market. If you do't realise this from the past few years, then you are truly deperate.

How long have our IRs been roughly 4.5% +/-0.25% is it about 2 years now .... so how can anyone make the link with US IRs when they have gone from 1% to 5%.

Whats happening in the US housing market has diddly squat with the UK.

I just wish you would be honest with people RB , rather than keep feeding them irrelevant rubbish, just to make yourself feel better. Your behaviour is as bad as the VIs you love to rubbish.

Errrrrrrrrrr have certain parts of the US not been in a bubble just the same as here, historical US rates being higher than UK rates is an anomaly it does not happen very often, the reason capitol tends to flow to where rates are higher, that's what normally happens.

I think you need to accept that this bubble is a pretty global affair, it will burst at different times in different places, the evidence is there for all to see, the whirlwind of easy money or more accurately put, money looking for a good return is slowly coming to an end, of course many VI's don't see the connection so they try to make up all kinds of excuses demographics been one, new padigrams last wheeled out in the dot.com bubble, and every other bubble before it no doubt they were saying the same thing about tulips all those years ago.

The problem for many is that this bubble is now so huge that many sensible people can not see it anymore, it's obscuring reality, the only time they will notice it is when it bursts!

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UK Builders all down pretty heavily today - around 3%.

FTSE 100 currently around 0% - SO THE BUILDERS ARE TAKING A HAMMERING.

As Dr Bubb has shown, the builders stocks are a good leading indicator for HPI and the state of the market in coming weeks and months.

This looks good for bears.

Wimpey

Barratt

Persimmon

:D:D:D The smarter money is getting out of interest rate sensitive areas.

Let the trend be your friend

Lets hope it continues.

Edited by BubbleTurbo

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Errrrrrrrrrr have certain parts of the US not been in a bubble just the same as here, historical US rates being higher than UK rates is an anomaly it does not happen very often, the reason capitol tends to flow to where rates are higher, that's what normally happens.

Historically, perhaps. But the strength of the pound - in spite of the unusual relationship between US and UK interest rates - would suggest that, yes, something is different this time. It is too simplistic to say history repeats itself; it never does in exactly the same way

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Does anybody really give a monkeys about what is happening in the States (apart from the yanks) ?!!!!

It has no bearing on what is happening over here - out IR cycle and levels of, are independant of the US and so is our housing market. If you do't realise this from the past few years, then you are truly deperate.

How long have our IRs been roughly 4.5% +/-0.25% is it about 2 years now .... so how can anyone make the link with US IRs when they have gone from 1% to 5%.

Whats happening in the US housing market has diddly squat with the UK.

I just wish you would be honest with people RB , rather than keep feeding them irrelevant rubbish, just to make yourself feel better. Your behaviour is as bad as the VIs you love to rubbish.

The US has the largest economy in the world. They consume 20% of the world's production. The Fed sets the tone for world IR. The US is the UK's second largest trading partner. And you question whether what happens in the US affects the UK? :blink:

In the Great Crash the US and UK markets moved in tandem and saw the crash begin in 1989 and end in about 1996. The same for the Big Crash of the early 80's and the Oil induced HPC of the 70's. We have no reason to suspect that the next, as yet unanamed crash, will follow the same pattern. We are however, joined by our other cousins in OZ for this upcoming crash.

Why are the US and UK markets characterised by booms and busts that happen at roughtly the same time every time? The same conditions prevail. Accomodative IR, lax lending standards and sheeple willing to pay anything to "get in" without regard to the financial consequences.

The US is simply leading the way and their press are more ruthless to tell it like it is than the Nu Labour propaganda sheets that spew drivel in the UK.

Edited by Realistbear

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Does anybody really give a monkeys about what is happening in the States (apart from the yanks) ?!!!!

It has no bearing on what is happening over here - out IR cycle and levels of, are independant of the US and so is our housing market. If you do't realise this from the past few years, then you are truly deperate.

If only that were true. Although the bubble is isolated to certain states the huge economy of California is being affected by this housing bubble and that is enough to worry me. A downturn in consumer confidence in the USA is sufficient to spark off a global recession. The American consumer is vital.

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Historically, perhaps. But the strength of the pound - in spite of the unusual relationship between US and UK interest rates - would suggest that, yes, something is different this time. It is too simplistic to say history repeats itself; it never does in exactly the same way

perhaps, but the results are the same in most cases

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One thing caused the US property bubble, I/R being lowered too far for too long folowing 9/11 (and slack lending) sucking in millions of FTB's and mug BTL's.

The UK followed the US rates down. We will now follow them up. 25,000 Brits own Florida vilas/condos many mewing their UK property for the 20% self cert deposit. The US resale market fell off a cliff last year and every cost associated with owning a US property is going through the roof.

Sounds familiar?

Anyone with 'investment' exposure to the UK, Irish, Spanish (et al property) markets is going to learn about property investment in the context of global economic forces.

It's Bath Time!

Pablo Silver or Lead?

PS. anyone who does not think there is a link between the US and UK economies, is a poor reader of history!

Edited by Pablo-silver or lead?

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One thing caused the US property bubble, I/R being lowered too far for too long folowing 9/11 (and slack lending) sucking in millions of FTB's and mug BTL's.

The UK followed the US rates down. We will now follow them up. 25,000 Brits own florida vilas/condos many mewing their UK property for the 20% self cert deposit. The US resale market fell off a cliff last year and every cost associated with owning a US property is going through the roof.

Sounds familiar?

Anyone with 'investment' exposure to the UK, Irish, Spanish (et al property) markets is going to learn about property investment in the context of global economic forces.

It's Bath Time!

Pablo Silver or Lead?

What puzzles me, if you visited Spain, you could see it was a bubble, you did not need to be a top notch economist, I remember some expat trying to BS me, that it is the investment of the future.

It's like the bubble here, why are people so blinded, I know the VI's tend to dominate the news agenda, and people tend to believe what they hear for them, put surely a little investigation would prove the point, it's like the people who buy the new flats, I was in Manchester yesterday (Bon Jovi gig) flats going up all over loads to let, you would have thought that before investing people would have looked at the market.

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This time it really is different. Following the crash it will all look so obvious. The massive disconnect of prices from fundimentals. The sheer amount of debt people have taken on. As I've said before a whole generation have only seen prices rise. The institutions providing the cheap money, at ever increasing wage multiples to FTB's and wet behind the ears BTL's, bear a lot of the blame.

It's going to be messy.

Pablo Silver or Lead?

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  • 301 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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