Jump to content
House Price Crash Forum

Recommended Posts

http://www.findaproperty.com/story.aspx?storyid=9509

Take a look at the chart at the bottom of this report. Very interesting IMO & demonstrates the varied situation across the UK.

Here's a clue for you: London ROI 40.88%

And you lot told me I should sell! :lol::lol:

TTRTR

What is your view on the medium and long term in terms of HPI, from a National viewpoint.

3 years =

5 years =

10 years =

15 years =

Do you think that history will always repeat itself (The well know phrase "Prices double every 7 years!) or do you think things are different now.

My view:

I think things will continue as before. A year or two of low inflation, maybe a few dips here and there. This will provide time for wages and savers to catch-up, this in turn will then trigger a new phase of high HPI.

Many people on this site really need/want a HPC, you just can not convince them otherwise. What is interesting, on the home page of this site there is a matrix detailing long term forcasts for HPI.

Some of these projection periods are now in the past and the predictions have been far from correct. Many others are almost at the end of their prediction periods and unless something drastic happens this year they also will be wrong. In fact, the only forcasts which look like they will be about right are the "VI's" as this site likes to brand them!

Anyway- time will always reveal the future!

astos

Edited by astos

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

That's nothing. Between about '76 and about '81 (I don't have a detailed enough graph), the return on investment for gold bought in '76 and sold at the peak was about 800%!

Billy Shears

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Do you think that history will always repeat itself (The well know phrase "Prices double every 7 years!)

Like they did between 1989 & 1996 <_<

It is a well know phrase - I did not say the phrase is true however, Although I think it is quite indictitive. -

how many sets of seven years can you find with negative HPI

Verses

how many sets of seven years can you find with positive HPI

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

http://www.findaproperty.com/story.aspx?storyid=9509

Take a look at the chart at the bottom of this report. Very interesting IMO & demonstrates the varied situation across the UK.

Here's a clue for you: London ROI 40.88%

And you lot told me I should sell! :lol::lol:

The figures quoted seem very strange. The london property (single property, average? average over what?) had capital appreciation of 34.78%. TTRTR, I challenge you to name any borough in London where capital appreciation was over 30% in the last year. The property in the East Midlands showed 26% capital depreciation. Again, this is extremely unlikely though I wouldn't complain. And that rent in the East Midlands is 1200pcm for a 180K property. Again, this is extremely unlikely. I'd say 800pcm tops for a property like that round my way. And that would be very expensive.

The figures given are clearly a crock of sh*t. If you take those figures at face value, it's time to put your analyst on danger money.

It is a well know phrase - I did not say the phrase is true however, Although I think it is quite indictitive. -

how many sets of seven years can you find with negative HPI

Verses

how many sets of seven years can you find with positive HPI

Not very informative. How many years can you find where house prices have reached their current values in terms of multiples of average salary where they were higher in real terms seven years

This is like saying if you average over years and years, the average temperature difference between one month and the time six months later is 0. Therefore it isn't going to get cold next winter.

Billy Shears

Edited by BillyShears

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

So we have a report on the BTL market commissioned by a company that lends to the BTL market. I recall cigarette companies used to commission studies on the safety of smoking.

Can we take this report seriously when the analysis is so blatently biased:

Get the punters to think that smart money is buying property:

"particularly among larger scale and professional investors"

Attack the opposition:

"at a time of uncertainty in the equity markets" (as if there is no uncertainty in the property market)

Present bad news as good news:

"yields dipped from 6.26 per cent to 6.16 per cent" ......." However, while yields in the south are poorer, strong capital appreciation continues to attract investment"

Pepper the article with reinforcing statements:

pick-up in the prices

rising property prices are encouraging rather than deterring investors

resurgence of buy-to-let activity

upbeat landlords are buying properties

good investor activity

adding to their portfolios

confident enough to purchase additional properties

expectations of good capital appreciation

Heron predicts a buoyant market

The positive trend looks set to continue

landlords continue to invest

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

As things start to turn expect far more of this type of ramping, remember there are so many VI's who have so much to lose when things go south

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

So we have a report on the BTL market commissioned by a company that lends to the BTL market. I recall cigarette companies used to commission studies on the safety of smoking.

Can we take this report seriously when the analysis is so blatently biased:

I think the kicker is the numbers. What parts of London had 34% HPI last year? Anyone?

Billy Shears

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Guest Winners and Losers

I think the kicker is the numbers. What parts of London had 34% HPI last year? Anyone?

Billy Shears

Closest I can come up with is Chelsea and Knightsbridge at 23%.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

TTRTR

What is your view on the medium and long term in terms of HPI, from a National viewpoint.

3 years =

5 years =

10 years =

15 years =

Do you think that history will always repeat itself (The well know phrase "Prices double every 7 years!) or do you think things are different now.

My view:

I think things will continue as before. A year or two of low inflation, maybe a few dips here and there. This will provide time for wages and savers to catch-up, this in turn will then trigger a new phase of high HPI.

Many people on this site really need/want a HPC, you just can not convince them otherwise. What is interesting, on the home page of this site there is a matrix detailing long term forcasts for HPI.

Some of these projection periods are now in the past and the predictions have been far from correct. Many others are almost at the end of their prediction periods and unless something drastic happens this year they also will be wrong. In fact, the only forcasts which look like they will be about right are the "VI's" as this site likes to brand them!

Anyway- time will always reveal the future!

astos

As long as the demographics stack up, yes, business as usual.

Edited by Time to raise the rents.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Guest Winners and Losers

I know that it isn't yet & have been here saying why for 2+ years. You are welcome to read my posts to fiind out why.

You tell 'em! :angry:

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I know that it isn't yet & have been here saying why for 2+ years. You are welcome to read my posts to fiind out why.

I am afraid that all the evidence points to being a classic bubble, time will tell, but tell me if you are wrong will you come on here and admit it?

If in a year or so prices have not fallen significantley I will do so

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I am afraid that all the evidence points to being a classic bubble, time will tell, but tell me if you are wrong will you come on here and admit it?

If in a year or so prices have not fallen significantley I will do so

:lol::lol::lol:

I've been coming on this forum watching people like you admit YOUR error.

We'll see you soon when you're ready!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I am afraid that all the evidence points to being a classic bubble, time will tell, but tell me if you are wrong will you come on here and admit it?

If in a year or so prices have not fallen significantley I will do so

Unfortunately, I don't think we will have a significant crash now, however I do believe that prices will drift downward by about 5% in nominal values over the next 12 months, and thereafter will fluctuate between plus and minus 5% over the next 5 years.

My son's been looking at properties, and there's absolutely no doubt, and this is confirmed by the EAs we have spoken to, that affordability is a real problem - no-one's able or willing to meet the asking prices, but sellers believe they just have to wait for prices to catch up. Result? Stagnation with properties lingering. 2 or 3 agents have told us that they spend a lot of time trying to manage the vendors' expectations.

Edited by Casual Observer

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

:lol::lol::lol:

I've been coming on this forum watching people like you admit YOUR error.

We'll see you soon when you're ready!

However, TTTR you have not watched someone like me! Will you admit it when it does come simple question, or will you be like all the other VI's and deny the obviouse

If it looks like a bubble, smells like a bubble, then chances are it is!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Unfortunately, I don't think we will have a significant crash now, however I do believe that prices will drift downward by about 5% in nominal values over the next 12 months, and thereafter will fluctuate between plus and minus 5% over the next 5 years.

I don't believe this. If prices drop by 5% in nominal values over the next 12 months, then it will be obvious to everyone that the free money machine is now closed. That will cause a fundamental change in the market. Remember that for houses to sell, someone has to buy. If FTBs are priced out and BTL becomes remarkably less popular due to a 5% fall in a year, who will be buying? In sufficient numbers?

I've been coming on this forum watching people like you admit YOUR error.

We'll see you soon when you're ready!

I notice that you dodged my challenge to find any borough in London where there has been HPI anything the 34% quoted in the article you posted.

This is one of those cases where your silence speaks louder than words.

Now we ask ourselves, why did the article quote obviously inaccurate numbers rather than publishing the real numbers?

Billy Shears

Edited by BillyShears

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I don't believe this. If prices drop by 5% in nominal values over the next 12 months, then it will be obvious to everyone that the free money machine is now closed. That will cause a fundamental change in the market.

Billy Shears

But we had at least 5% nominal drops in 2004/5, and a full-blown crash didn't happen. That's why I think my prediction is correct.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

http://www.findaproperty.com/story.aspx?storyid=9509

Take a look at the chart at the bottom of this report. Very interesting IMO & demonstrates the varied situation across the UK.

Here's a clue for you: London ROI 40.88%

And you lot told me I should sell! :lol::lol:

Tell me this is true EAST MIDLANDS had a house price drop equalling £47k according to the table.

If so I'm off to buy a house!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

But we had at least 5% nominal drops in 2004/5, and a full-blown crash didn't happen. That's why I think my prediction is correct.

The problem is with bursting bubbles is that many people don't see it until it's to late, indeed there may even at the bursting point there will still be buyers buying at the top of the market, as to when that will be who knows, but what I do know that this is a bubble, it has all the ingredients of one

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

http://www.findaproperty.com/story.aspx?storyid=9509

Take a look at the chart at the bottom of this report. Very interesting IMO & demonstrates the varied situation across the UK.

Here's a clue for you: London ROI 40.88%

And you lot told me I should sell! :lol::lol:

That does look nice TTRTR as I live in the South West. :):):):) Don't worry it'll fall in London too soon enough.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

That does look nice TTRTR as I live in the South West. :):):):) Don't worry it'll fall in London too soon enough.

Me too! That post followed by a drive past endless streams of "To Let" signs made me laugh. My recent 10% reduction in rent is sure doing my landlord's ROI the power of good.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I don't believe this. If prices drop by 5% in nominal values over the next 12 months, then it will be obvious to everyone that the free money machine is now closed. That will cause a fundamental change in the market. Remember that for houses to sell, someone has to buy. If FTBs are priced out and BTL becomes remarkably less popular due to a 5% fall in a year, who will be buying? In sufficient numbers?

I notice that you dodged my challenge to find any borough in London where there has been HPI anything the 34% quoted in the article you posted.

This is one of those cases where your silence speaks louder than words.

Now we ask ourselves, why did the article quote obviously inaccurate numbers rather than publishing the real numbers?

Billy Shears

I think the article probably did quote correct numbers because it says Return on Initial Investment. Thus if your initial investment was only 10% and you leveraged the investment with 90% borrowing, then a 5% increase in valure = 50% return on your 10% deposit. Hence the apparently large figures. Of course the reverse is true when propert prices fall as will surely happen as sure as night follows day and then..TTTR beware !

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.

  • 301 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



×
×
  • Create New...

Important Information

We have placed cookies on your device to help make this website better. You can adjust your cookie settings, otherwise we'll assume you're okay to continue.