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Pop! Us Bubble Finally Gives In

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Well, we've had many false dawns and weakly bearish news that is dressed up as "the start of the crash", but I believe this is a big one.

Pulte are the largest US housebuilder and it's seeing orders down 29% at what should be a busy time. It's slashed its earnings forecast for the full year and its Q2 numbers are well below what were already very bearish analysts forecasts.

A big domino topples.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=100...WoBFTM&refer=us

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Guest Winners and Losers

So what is going on in the UK then? I am seeing loads of Under Offers in the areas that I look. One that fell through has been back on market for a couple of days and is already Under Offer again. I know it doesnt mean sold, but there are obviously plenty of people in the UK with money to burn.

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So what is going on in the UK then? I am seeing loads of Under Offers in the areas that I look. One that fell through has been back on market for a couple of days and is already Under Offer again. I know it doesnt mean sold, but there are obviously plenty of people in the UK with money to burn.

I think it's more a case of plenty of banks with money to burn

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Well is that it? Hello?

This is an important piece of news re. global HPI. It is finally REAL PROOF that the US housing market is rolling over!! Oh well, I guess people are more interested in discussing English flag waving and indebted pole dancers.... ;)

Here's Another Link

"There's a lot of inventory and the market's slowing," said Thomas Leritz, Argent Capital Management portfolio manager, who follows the home building sector but does not currently own any of the stocks.

"Consumer sentiment is negative on housing," he added. "Every day you look at the newspaper, you read a magazine or watch TV, you see some comment about how the housing market is a bubble. People are scared."

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Yes, this is good news for HPC.

The more markets which start turning the better as it will show THIS IS A GLOBAL HOUSE PRICE BUBBLE that WILL fall.

US Interest rates looking to go up again soon. :lol:

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Guest Winners and Losers

I guess people are more interested in discussing English flag waving and indebted pole dancers.... ;)

Sure seems that way.

You should know by now that my view is that its global, but the madness continues in the UK.

Edited by Winners and Losers

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IN the Great Crash the UK followed the US market by about 6 months. Things should get rough here by November. Florida is heading into crash territory--lots of Brit 2nd home owners there:

http://www.builderonline.com/industry-news...rticleID=310976

Home Sales Falling As Market Slows

Source: South Florida Sun-Sentinel

Publication date: 2006-05-26

By Paul Owers, South Florida Sun-Sentinel
May 26--South Florida's housing market remained soft in April, giving buyers more choices and sellers more grief.
Sales of existing single-family homes and condominiums plummeted in Palm Beach County last month, and prices leveled off from record highs in the fall.
After five years of bidding wars and huge price appreciations, the market has turned. With more than double the number of homes for sale this year compared to last, buyers have become selective and unwilling to make full-price offers.
"Buyers are a commodity right now," said Joanie Villanti, a real estate agent in Palm Beach and Broward counties. "When they walk in, it's like, 'Let me kiss your ring.'"

http://www.builderonline.com/industry-news...rticleID=311174

Index Based on Pending Home Sales Slides - NAR

Source: U.S. Newswire

Publication date: 2006-06-01

WASHINGTON, June 1 /U.S. Newswire/ -- Pending home sales, the leading indicator for the housing sector, are continuing to ease, according to the National Association of Realtors®.
The Pending Home Sales Index,(a) based on contracts signed in April, fell 3.7 percent to a level of 111.8 from an index of 116.1 in March, and is 11.7 percent below April 2005. This marks the third consecutive monthly decline.

http://www.builderonline.com/industry-news...rticleID=311013

Home Costs Are Called a Drag on State Growth

Source: The Boston Globe

Publication date: 2006-05-22

By Kimberly Blanton, The Boston Globe
May 22--High home prices are limiting the Boston area's ability to regain the jobs lost in the 2001 recession and sustain economic growth, according to two new studies being released today during a conference at Boston's Federal Reserve Bank.

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Well is that it? Hello?

This is an important piece of news re. global HPI. It is finally REAL PROOF that the US housing market is rolling over!! Oh well, I guess people are more interested in discussing English flag waving and indebted pole dancers.... ;)

Here's Another Link

No, that's a good find and a very significant one.

All the more interesting as though US IRs have risen by 3.75% over 2 years, it's hardly earth shattering tightening. What if they do a .5% rise. This merely proves a suspicion I've had for a long time; for the bubble to burst IRs don't need to go to anything like 15%, so indebted are the American/British consumer.

As for Britain. I'm calling the actual falling of prices NOW (up to now we've just got rid of HPI). A forest of for sale/to let boards outside Victorian conversion flats and other BTL territory, tells me things are not great. As for the 'sea' of under offer or sale agreed boards. Yes, there are many of these around - but they're not completing either through chains collapsing or them not having the wonga from the bank. How many removal vans are there around, why is the DIY sector dead, why are houses being re-advertised all the time?

And like all bubbles in history it likes to suck as much air as possible in before bursting. Thus the early '06 frenzy is making this crash go in textbook fashion - morons leveraging up to the max. That's finished and the downward path of HPI which began in September '04 will resume.

It's happening guys :P

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"Buyers are a commodity right now," said Joanie Villanti, a real estate agent in Palm Beach and Broward counties. "When they walk in, it's like, 'Let me kiss your ring.'" [/indent]

Blimey - they are desperate!!

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  • 301 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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