I Told You So Posted June 1, 2006 Share Posted June 1, 2006 Fed looking increasingly likely to raise again in late June and now theres talk that the ECB could go for a 0.5% rise next week. You've got to feel sorry for those little Irish economic gurus, BUy BUy Buy Where does all that leave us? Its not if but when. I really fancy 28/1 (Betfair) on a rise next week Gordon Brown must be shitting it Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Charles_Darke Posted June 1, 2006 Share Posted June 1, 2006 Fed looking increasingly likely to raise again in late June and now theres talk that the ECB could go for a 0.5% rise next week. You've got to feel sorry for those little Irish economic gurus, BUy BUy Buy Where does all that leave us? Its not if but when. I really fancy 28/1 (Betfair) on a rise next week Gordon Brown must be shitting it I put money on both 25bp rise and 50bp rise. I notice the odds for 50bp has shortened over the last few days. It's still a long shot. I wonder how much political pressure ECB are under? If free of political pressure, I think there would be a reasonable chance of 50bp rise to head off inflation. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Patience is a virtue isn't it! Posted June 1, 2006 Share Posted June 1, 2006 I put money on both 25bp rise and 50bp rise. I notice the odds for 50bp has shortened over the last few days. It's still a long shot. I wonder how much political pressure ECB are under? If free of political pressure, I think there would be a reasonable chance of 50bp rise to head off inflation. You can now get 34/1 on .25 and 300 on .50. 1.02/1 for no change again, so guess that is what will happen. I just wish they'd get these rises over and done with. I might start making some decent money on my savings. 4.75 is just c**p Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bubbleturbo Posted June 1, 2006 Share Posted June 1, 2006 (edited) I am sure the Irish will be able to exert some fearsome pressure on the ECB. Bertie who??? What and where is Ireland??? Edited June 1, 2006 by BubbleTurbo Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
THE WATCHER Posted June 1, 2006 Share Posted June 1, 2006 I am sure the Irish will be able to exert some fiersome pressure on the ECB. check betfair NOW!!! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Patience is a virtue isn't it! Posted June 1, 2006 Share Posted June 1, 2006 check betfair NOW!!! Betfair pretty much guarantees the ECB will raise by .25, whereas the MCP will remain unchanged. How with the ECB rising rates help us in the U.K get a cheaper house, or more for our savings? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
I Told You So Posted June 1, 2006 Author Share Posted June 1, 2006 Now let me see, the 2 biggest economies in the world are raising rates so what do you thinks going to happen Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Patience is a virtue isn't it! Posted June 1, 2006 Share Posted June 1, 2006 Now let me see, the 2 biggest economies in the world are raising rates so what do you thinks going to happen Well the obvious answer is that ours will follow suit. Problem is they've been resisting pressure for a little while now whilst the ECB and Fed have been happily raising theres. O.K so the futures market now have 2 raises priced in for this year, probably July and November, but is that going to be enough to tip the Housing market over the edge? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bandylegs Posted June 1, 2006 Share Posted June 1, 2006 Well the obvious answer is that ours will follow suit. Problem is they've been resisting pressure for a little while now whilst the ECB and Fed have been happily raising theres. O.K so the futures market now have 2 raises priced in for this year, probably July and November, but is that going to be enough to tip the Housing market over the edge? I don't think that a half point in a year will make a massive difference in the speed of the crash, we'll still be watching the proverbial paint drying if that is all there is. Does anybody think that the inflationary pressures on the EU and the USA might prove to be temporary? What are the chances that we could sit it out and that the trend in global interest rates might change before we follow? Just a thought… Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
I Told You So Posted June 1, 2006 Author Share Posted June 1, 2006 I know this may sound fanciful but if you think back to when rates hit 4.75% there were some definite price falls, I really do believe that rates hitting 5.0% will lead to some significant falls. My personal view is that rates will have to go to nearer 6% or possibly higher in the next 18 months, this is purely based on the historical relationship between US and UK interest rates. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sisyphus Posted June 1, 2006 Share Posted June 1, 2006 You can now get 34/1 on .25 and 300 on .50. 1.02/1 for no change again, so guess that is what will happen. I just wish they'd get these rises over and done with. I might start making some decent money on my savings. 4.75 is just c**p odds were shorter about 25/1 y'day on a 0.25% rise I think. Problem is all 22 economists polled today by Bberg reckon no change at next week. Difficult to bet against all of them. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
munimula Posted June 1, 2006 Share Posted June 1, 2006 odds were shorter about 25/1 y'day on a 0.25% rise I think. Problem is all 22 economists polled today by Bberg reckon no change at next week. Difficult to bet against all of them. I think that a rise is unlikely as it was only last month that signals were made to indicate that the next direction in rates is up. They will want to use this month to reiterate those signals, make them a bit clearer and prepare the market for a rise - either July or August IMO is a cert. One rise isn't going to be enough but IMO there will be a gap between rises of quite a few months. All depends on inflation really. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CrashIsUnderWay Posted June 1, 2006 Share Posted June 1, 2006 a quarter point will make ALL the difference. It did last time. Just go look at the graph - or maybe 'you believe in coincidences'... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
I Told You So Posted June 1, 2006 Author Share Posted June 1, 2006 (edited) But if Kate Barker is hinting at a rise and she is a notorious dove what if merv's gang of 4 go for a hike and maybe one other. Its probably money down the drain but at over 30/1 I'll kick myself if i dont do it and a rise comes in. Edited June 1, 2006 by I Told You So Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Patience is a virtue isn't it! Posted June 1, 2006 Share Posted June 1, 2006 But if Kate Barker is hinting at a rise and she is a notorious dove what if merv's gang of 4 go for a hike and maybe one other. Its probably money down the drain but at over 30/1 I'll kick myself if i dont do it and a rise comes in. I may stick a £10 on it as well. Don't care if I lose it, but £300 isn't to be sniffed at. If we have the 2 rises this year and then 2 more early on next then it maybe enough to tip the balance. Just wish it would hurry up. It is sad really but I spend half the time waiting for shares to go up and the other half waiting for house prices to come down. I'll be retired before both happen significantly i suspect!! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bubbleturbo Posted June 1, 2006 Share Posted June 1, 2006 It really is on a knife edge. I think 2 rises against a backdrop of rising unemployment, global rising rates, global property uncertainty will give us nominal falls. The geared BTL boys will be on the pan for 2 weeks before they can call the agents to start desposal. Could well start a stampede. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
look to the past Posted June 1, 2006 Share Posted June 1, 2006 I don't think that a half point in a year will make a massive difference in the speed of the crash, we'll still be watching the proverbial paint drying if that is all there is. Does anybody think that the inflationary pressures on the EU and the USA might prove to be temporary? What are the chances that we could sit it out and that the trend in global interest rates might change before we follow? it's a very good point I think that inflationary pressures have came from oil which seems to be steady at 70$ ish and investment speculation in other commodities such as gold etc – all seem to have peeked so perhaps in the next year we could see it reverse as people cash in their investments – Also I don’t think that Japan will be over deflation yet – if I was in that part of the world I would still be investing in the $ and I think that will make deflation continue – low interest rates forever Please note I am not a financial adviser and do not know anything about the above – it’s just my opinion with no proof or backup in any way Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaay Posted June 1, 2006 Share Posted June 1, 2006 I may stick a £10 on it as well. Don't care if I lose it, but £300 isn't to be sniffed at. If we have the 2 rises this year and then 2 more early on next then it maybe enough to tip the balance. Just wish it would hurry up. It is sad really but I spend half the time waiting for shares to go up and the other half waiting for house prices to come down. I'll be retired before both happen significantly i suspect!! has anyone put money on the average price for june? - not sure which figs the this is based on... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bandylegs Posted June 1, 2006 Share Posted June 1, 2006 I think that inflationary pressures have came from oil which seems to be steady at 70$ ish and investment speculation in other commodities such as gold etc – all seem to have peeked so perhaps in the next year we could see it reverse as people cash in their investments – Also I don’t think that Japan will be over deflation yet – if I was in that part of the world I would still be investing in the $ and I think that will make deflation continue – low interest rates forever Two good points, not what I'd like to hear ideally; but... Whilst I would like to see rates rise I'm not 100% convinced that we won't continue to go down our own path and I'm not even 50% sure that the inflation pressure felt globally is here to stay. The points you make I think are fair and do not get much of a mention on these boards. My biggest worry is that there doesn't seem to be a hint of wage inflation, inspite of increased costs of living, and if anything increased immigration from East Europe might lead to wage deflation. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jock1967 Posted June 1, 2006 Share Posted June 1, 2006 has anyone put money on the average price for june? - not sure which figs the this is based on... Click on 'Rules' and it tells you there. Jock Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sisyphus Posted June 1, 2006 Share Posted June 1, 2006 You can now get 34/1 on .25 and 300 on .50. 1.02/1 for no change again, so guess that is what will happen. I just wish they'd get these rises over and done with. I might start making some decent money on my savings. 4.75 is just c**p ok, who took out the 34/1 ? ... 26/1 best now. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
look to the past Posted June 1, 2006 Share Posted June 1, 2006 Whilst I would like to see rates rise I'm not 100% convinced that we won't continue to go down our own path and I'm not even 50% sure that the inflation pressure felt globally is here to stay. The points you make I think are fair and do not get much of a mention on these boards. My biggest worry is that there doesn't seem to be a hint of wage inflation, inspite of increased costs of living, and if anything increased immigration from East Europe might lead to wage deflation. Even if we had wage inflation – I don’t think the BOE would act on it if the economy would suffer as a result of putting rates up – Europe have v low interest rates and that makes our rates high in comparison – so lowering them a little may not do any harm. Personally I will buy a house if I can not see any change – interest rates are low – and if I can see them staying low it would be a shame to miss out on it – but I will give it to the end of the year – just to see if inflation actually is a problem Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smiley Posted June 1, 2006 Share Posted June 1, 2006 odds were shorter about 25/1 y'day on a 0.25% rise I think. Problem is all 22 economists polled today by Bberg reckon no change at next week. Difficult to bet against all of them. I've just put 20 quid on a .25% rise at 26 to on - standing to gain £500! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
flatnose Posted June 1, 2006 Share Posted June 1, 2006 I've just put 20 quid on a .25% rise at 26 to on - standing to gain £500! I couldn't resist a fiver.... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bpw Posted June 1, 2006 Share Posted June 1, 2006 (edited) I couldn't resist a fiver.... you could be wasting your money. All should take a look at the Base Rates page and note that the EU rate is only 2.5%. That means EU rates are half the Fed Rate and yet for the past several years the dollar has weakened. I struggle to understand the reason why the dollar is loosing ground to the Euro when its clearly safer to put your reserves into the greenback. It smells like the whole world are waiting for the Dollar to crash. So think of this, if the Fed and EU raise rates by let's say one percent between now and this time next year, will that really have such a great impact on the BOE who are desperate to prop up house prices and manufacturing? I doubt it. Dont get me wrong, I would love to see the pound crash and a 40% downward correction in property prices but the past couple of years tells me this is wishfull thinking. The nationwide affordabiliy graph on an earlier posting made me reaslise what a terrible position we non-house owners are in. The truth is simple, the establishment and institutions in the UK have a vested interest in making sure house prices inflate at the expense of those who are moving onto and up the chain. This is not market forces, its mothers and fathers robbing their sons and daughters of a sound financial future. If you don't believe me, read the 'mwhodges' site for an independent view of someone who corresponded with nobel prize winner Milton Friedman http://mwhodges.home.att.net/ To fully understand what is happening think of the UK as a hog penn with 60mln hogs all trotting around, then assume their ages range from small squeeler to warty, prescott sized hog. Now what happens at feeding time? When the swill that is UK housing is put in the trough who is at the front of the queue? You guessed it the biggest fattest pigs, many of whom eat two or more portions! If George Orwell were alive today he wouldn't have been writing about the injustice and unfairness of communism it would be about the unfolding intergenerational conflict. Edited June 1, 2006 by bpw Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Join the conversation
You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.