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Realistbear

F T S E: Black Tuesday?

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FTSE 100 (FSI:^FTSE)

Index Value: 5,749.20

Trade Time: 8:55AM

Change: 41.80 (0.72%)

Prev Close: 5,791.00

Open: 5,791.00

Day's Range: 5,747.30 - 5,793.60

52wk Range: 4,964.00 - 6,137.10

Anyone else go away in May? IR are probably behind the falls.

Edited by Realistbear

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Guest Charlie The Tramp

When was the last time we had this yo yo-ing of the indices and what was the final outcome ?

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Crash warning?

http://edinburghnews.scotsman.com/business.cfm?id=794042006

Stockmarket rough ride warning

HSBC, Britain's biggest bank, has predicted that stockmarket volatility will continue into the summer.

While the FTSE-100 recovered some of the ten per cent in value it had lost over the last few weeks, it is still around 400 points off its early May peak of around 6100.
But HSBC's head of global markets, Mike Powell, above, said: "It's going to be a very volatile summer, very volatile."

We could see a global correction this summer as over inflated assets come back down to earth. The HPC may accelerate a tad* as everything else plummets undermining confidence and causing major purchases to be delayed.

*Unless IR hikes occur at the Fed and ECB. <_<

Crash warning?

http://edinburghnews.scotsman.com/business.cfm?id=794042006

Stockmarket rough ride warning

HSBC, Britain's biggest bank, has predicted that stockmarket volatility will continue into the summer.

While the FTSE-100 recovered some of the ten per cent in value it had lost over the last few weeks, it is still around 400 points off its early May peak of around 6100.
But HSBC's head of global markets, Mike Powell, above, said: "It's going to be a very volatile summer, very volatile."

We could see a global correction this summer as over inflated assets come back down to earth. The HPC may accelerate a tad* as everything else plummets undermining confidence and causing major purchases to be delayed.

*Unless IR hikes occur at the Fed and ECB. <_<

This just in from Bloomberg--looks like higher IR are coming now:

Europe: Interest rate worries push shares lower

By Alexis Xydias

TUESDAY, MAY 30, 2006

http://www.iht.com/articles/2006/05/29/bloomberg/bxeuro.php

LONDON European stocks slipped Monday as a report showing the highest German consumer confidence in more than four years added to
expectations that interest rates would rise
.

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i know someone who is a stock market trader and when i mentioned how bad the stock exchange was last week was and the potential effect it might have on the housing market-his opinion was that it was more likely to increase house prices.

so i didn't know what to make of that

Edited by Rachel

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I'm no expert,

but it appears that the FTSE100 has already broken its 2 year supporting trendline, and if it keeps going it will soon test its 5 year supporting trendline...

Anybody making predictions?

I think (hope) we'll see a continuation pattern between the 2 and 5 year (2 year trend as upward resistance, 5 year trend as downward resistance) lines before further falls... although I'd keep an eye on the pattern.

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"potential effect it might have on the housing market-his opinion was that it was more likely to increase house prices"

Not this time.

Property is too overvalued, and the psychology is wrong.

(Historically, that worked in 2001- but conditions were totally different.)

I don't agree that falling FTSE will lead to HPI but....

Ceteris paribus, anyone with spare cash is more likely to buy property than shares when shares are looking volatile or like they might fall. Remember the herd mentality... no-one buys shares unless we are in the last phase of a ridiculous bull run!

Ceteris paribus, anyone considering STR is more likely to hold given that for many (especially amateurs or those who are risk averse) cash looks just about the best investment out there at the minute.

Shares and property prices are not closely correlated at all.

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added in edit, above:

(Historically, that worked in 2001- but conditions were totally different.:

then, we were coming off a "clicks are better than bricks" mentality and property was reasonably priced. When central banks starting cutting rates, it suddenly looked cheap. Now there is little scope for rate cuts. We may even be headed into stagflation, which will be a nightmare fro property owners.)

Nail and head.

No value in property at present.

I think sentiment has changed enough towards property that most money finding its way out of stocks in the event of large market falls probably won't find its way into property.

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HPC is great :)

We have now had a black Monday, Tuesday(3 times), wednesday, Thursday, Friday(twice), any chance of one on a Saturday or Sunday.

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HPC is great :)

We have now had a black Monday, Tuesday(3 times), wednesday, Thursday, Friday(twice), any chance of one on a Saturday or Sunday.

It is getting a little tiring.

I agree, its not a BLACK anyday yet.

Maybe we should make a new rule that a market has to fall 10% in a single days trading before anyone is allowed to call BLACK anything??

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It is getting a little tiring.

I agree, its not a BLACK anyday yet.

Maybe we should make a new rule that a market has to fall 10% in a single days trading before anyone is allowed to call BLACK anything??

it good be a grey Monday

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HPC is great :)

We have now had a black Monday, Tuesday(3 times), wednesday, Thursday, Friday(twice), any chance of one on a Saturday or Sunday.

Indeed, it's starting to remind me of my local amateur dramatics society.

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Guest Riser

Ding Ding Dow opens with a headache. Minus 50 points and falling.

Mr Joe.

Dow now down 90, it looks like inflation and higher interest rates are spooking the markets. The FTSE is being hit hard because many of the companies listed in the top 100 earn in Dollars which has fallen around 1% Today.

Weakness hitting the FTSE

The FTSE 100 index has been falling over the past two weeks. Why? Inflation and interest rate concerns coupled with dollar weakness. Earlier this month the US reported that rising oil and commodity prices had generated higher than expected inflation. Markets fear this may lead to higher interest rates, increasing the cost of borrowing for companies and consumers alike.

Us consumer confidence has fallen to the lowest level since Hurricane Katrina in an economy that is largely consumer driven. The US is importing much more than it exports, the US trade deficit is up more than eight per cent from last year's record high, and it looks set to continue to increase.

But why does this have an impact here? A large part of FTSE earnings is in US dollars. Even if income remains the same in dollar terms, a weakening exchange rate reduces the sterling value of those earnings.............

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dow passes -100

ftse -85

The last big crash saw the markets fall 20% in 1 day, This would equate to about 1200 points today. The market at the moment is down 99. Hope this puts it into perspective.

On a consumer level, these dips and rises are only significant to people just about to retire and buy an annuity, or to active day traders and the like. Like property, shares should be seen as a long term purchase. Maybe there'll be a dip or even a crash on the markets but like the tide, it will come back in again if you can just force yourself to be patient.

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The last big crash saw the markets fall 20% in 1 day, This would equate to about 1200 points today. The market at the moment is down 99. Hope this puts it into perspective.

yeah, but this time it's DIFFERENT :lol:

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yeah, but this time it's DIFFERENT :lol:

The FTSE100 is currently 1.64 per cent down. Wishful thinking aside, why on Earth do you think it is the same this time? <_<

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  • 301 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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