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If... The Oil Runs Out

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If... The Oil Runs Out

Tue 30 May, BBC2 11:20 pm - 12:20 am 60mins

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/programmes/if/4989146.stm

It's 2016 and the world is in crisis. The Oil Age is coming to an end.

Global supply can't keep up with soaring demand and the price of petrol is going through the roof. So now the oil companies are in a race, to the ends of the earth in a desperate search for Black Gold. But what happens if the oil isn't out there anymore? What then?

Blending drama and documentary, this film investigates the scenario which experts fear will come true when the cheap oil on which we depend starts to run out. Suddenly we won't be able to take anything for granted any more.

link

Shame it's not got a better slot but this programme sounds like it's going to address peak oil. Of course I think their 2016 date is optimistic but it should be interesting none the less.

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Hrm, you won't suddenly wake up one morning to find you've "run out of oil" it simply becomes progressively more expensive as time goes on, higher prices are needed to extract once uneconomic reserves and existing fields show diminishing returns where you have to put in a lot more effort to extract less oil, such as we're now seeing with the North Sea.

Even at $70 per barrel crude oil is still cheap, that's about 10p per pint, cheaper than milk.

Edited by BuyingBear

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Hrm, you won't suddenly wake up one morning to find you've "run out of oil" it simply becomes progressively more expensive as time goes on, higher prices are needed to extract once uneconomic reserves and existing fields show diminishing returns where you have to put in a lot more effort to extract less oil, such as we're now seeing with the North Sea.

Even at $70 per barrel crude oil is still cheap, that's about 10p per pint, cheaper than milk.

Weren't there queues outside petrol stations in the 70s that said "sold out" ? When producing countries realise that we've hit peak wouldn't it be human nature to hoard ? Or will they just keep pumping for paper money until it's really run out ?

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Since the stock market fall, Petrol is much cheaper 92p a litre unleaded. Before it was about 96-97p

Yes, it dropped a bit, however that was due to a number of hedge funds bailing out of commodities (or being forced to), oil dropped from $75 to $68 but it's climbing back up again.

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Hrm, you won't suddenly wake up one morning to find you've "run out of oil" it simply becomes progressively more expensive as time goes on, higher prices are needed to extract once uneconomic reserves and existing fields show diminishing returns where you have to put in a lot more effort to extract less oil, such as we're now seeing with the North Sea.

Of course, I don't think anyone is saying any different. I don't think the programme is about an overnight running out. From the main site it sounds like the programme is about peak oil.

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Hrm, you won't suddenly wake up one morning to find you've "run out of oil" it simply becomes progressively more expensive as time goes on, higher prices are needed to extract once uneconomic reserves and existing fields show diminishing returns where you have to put in a lot more effort to extract less oil, such as we're now seeing with the North Sea.

Even at $70 per barrel crude oil is still cheap, that's about 10p per pint, cheaper than milk.

I think people would be lamenting the price of milk too if they were buying 50 litres of it at a time.

Please note, I'm not putting across the tired old argument that somehow the oil companies should reduce the prices at the moment. I'm simply stating that saying oil is still cheaper than milk doesnt really count for much since most people 'need' to use far more 'oil' (directly and indirectly) than milk, hence the seriousness of the threat to our current 'way of life' (for want of a better phrase).

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Of course, I don't think anyone is saying any different. I don't think the programme is about an overnight running out. From the main site it sounds like the programme is about peak oil.

Not specifically 'peak oil' (mustn't scare the cattle), but a rose by any other name.

We will be still extracting oil out of the ground in two centuries time, it'll just be used for important shit like pharmaceuticals.

I always had the Beeb down as a bunch of cornucopians as they're essentially technically illiterate, they have often talked of hydrogen cars as if it's a gift from the sky. However, these theories do not tie in with their global warming concerns (which is an appeal to conservation).

Edited by BuyingBear

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Hi,

Next few months will see a BBC programme, I guess, saying "Nuclear power is the No.1 priority now".

Then Nulab will release a dossier saying "We are 45 mins away from the lights going off".

Gordy's brother's firm EDF will then produce glossy TV commercials showing the success of foreign nuclear instalations.

Not that that is a bag thing necessarily, just don't like the idea of further feathering the nests of Nulab ministers.

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Then Nulab will release a dossier saying "We are 45 mins away from the lights going off".

Gordy's brother's firm EDF will then produce glossy TV commercials showing the success of foreign nuclear instalations.

Oh quite, we've alredy had "24 hours to save the NHS", I'm surprised this wasn't mentioned or remembered when the 45 claim was spun.

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Even at $70 per barrel crude oil is still cheap, that's about 10p per pint, cheaper than milk.

Yeah, but I use (drink) over 2 gallons a day commuting

...and I don't have a cornflakes bowl that big :lol:

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Yeah, but I use (drink) over 2 gallons a day commuting

...and I don't have a cornflakes bowl that big :lol:

Well quite, but the price you pay is not for the oil itself, at 90p per litre around 66p finds its way to HM Treasury, the rest goes to the oil companies after they've paid the retailers, for the transportation, the refining, the piping, the extraction (another 60% marginal tax from the North Sea), the royalties, the exploration and their eventual profit is then subject to corporation tax and 20% windfall taxes. BP end up with about 1p a litre in clear profit, and their employees may not get to enjoy it. See, it's the evil oil companies, boo! Despite the fact Western companies only have collective control over 13% of global supply, nationalised companies and tin-pot dictators control the rest.

Anyway, according to hedonics if the price goes up 25% you will only use 1.5 gallons per day... your work place magically becomes closer to you ;)

Future archaeologists will not be able comprehend our way of life, they will assume the M25 is a gaint version of stonehenge, built by an iron lady to avenge the gods.

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Notice how the BBC squirrel this away to a late night slot on a minority channel. And I bet there's no mention of falling house prices in thier scenario. B)

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... people 'need' to use far more 'oil' (directly and indirectly) than milk, hence the seriousness of the threat to our current 'way of life' (for want of a better phrase).

One characterisation of this threat I read was that it would take several men doing hard physical labour for one year to output the energy contained in one barrel of oil.

70$ for that barrel? Sounds like a bargain.

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70$ for that barrel? Sounds like a bargain.

Quite, remember that oil is a form of "solar energy", millions upon millions of years worth of energy stored up like a huge battery and waiting to be extracted. And people think such intensive chemical energy can be substituted by a windmill on your roof? :lol:

The naivety makes me cry. Without oil we are completely stuffed, this goes a lot deeper than cars. The alternatives simply aren't viable, if you want huge wind farms made from steel, solar panels made from silicon, and nuclear reactors involving tons of concrete and steel you require massive amounts of embodied energy derived fossil fuels before you even generate a single watt, simply mining the uranium, or boron or ore for the above technologies requires huge amounts of energy.

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Which is the underlying principle of Energy dieoff. (see dieoff.com)

If you use up all the oil you needed to build and develop renewables in all their forms before reaching sustainable levels then you are pretty farked.

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The naivety makes me cry. Without oil we are completely stuffed, this goes a lot deeper than cars. The alternatives simply aren't viable...

Leading some commentators on to the conclusion that it's the current way of life that has to change, not the technology that powers it. That seems to work very well as a thought experiment until one realises that the extraordinary energy density of oil has made our kind of high density population with super-high-yield farming possible. These factory-farmed foods are simply the result of stuffing natural gas and oil into the soil via nitrate-based fertilisers.

"Bio"-fuels anyone?

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Leading some commentators on to the conclusion that it's the current way of life that has to change, not the technology that powers it. That seems to work very well as a thought experiment until one realises that the extraordinary energy density of oil has made our kind of high density population with super-high-yield farming possible. These factory-farmed foods are simply the result of stuffing natural gas and oil into the soil via nitrate-based fertilisers.

"Bio"-fuels anyone?

but it's the truth that will not be listened to by anyone, we live in a guilded castle here in the west,

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Well this programme is a start. But the sheeple will have to learn the hard way. Just relax and watch the show, I mean the show out there in the big wide world as reality breaks into la-la land. Look on the bright side; you get to watch "The Fall of the Roman Empire II" in 20-20 reality!

It might be a good idea to get yourself a pistol.

Oh blimey, future historians won't believe how we put men on the Moon and then walked blind into this one...

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Oh blimey, future historians won't believe how we put men on the Moon and then walked blind into this one...

Why?

It was the same growth of bloated government that allowed us to put men on the moon that led to the current energy problems. Without government interference in the middle east to keep oil prices low, and government interference in the energy market to push windmills over nukes, we'd have weaned ourselves off of cheap oil years ago.

Plus, of course, governments pushed the whole consumer/debt economy based on fiat currency that requires all the oil.

Edited by MarkG

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Why?

It was the same growth of bloated government that allowed us to put men on the moon that led to the current energy problems. Without government interference in the middle east to keep oil prices low, and government interference in the energy market to push windmills over nukes, we'd have weaned ourselves off of cheap oil years ago.

Plus, of course, governments pushed the whole consumer/debt economy based on fiat currency that requires all the oil.

Issues like this one (and global recessions) have the power to start people examining the way they have had faith in the narrowness of political debate since the war. While all has been well and good economically, and we have had general social/scientific "progress", most people have been prepared to put up with the generally disgusting types of egomaniacs that wish to rule us.

Local leaders will emerge as the peak oil scenario plays out and our way of life and outlook once more returns to our interdependence within our own communities.

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peak oil is a good opportunity for us to come together as a nation again.

we could all go on a steam bus to work and ride a steam elcasator and lift. we could work in our offices with steam powered photocopiers and pcs. perhaps taking a steam powered laptop home for extra cirriculaum workload. for creep points. and bum lick vouchers.

id welcome a new age of steam. it beats repeats of fred dibnahs 'the building of coked up britain'. or bill oddies program about cocaine snorting birds = 'coked-bird watch 2006.'

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While all has been well and good economically, and we have had general social/scientific "progress", most people have been prepared to put up with the generally disgusting types of egomaniacs that wish to rule us.

Agreed: since WWII the majority of the world's population has been bought off with easy credit, cheap tat and the promise of a fat pension at 60. When governments can no longer buy us off that way the cosy copendency will fall apart and things will get exciting real fast.

Edited by MarkG

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Guest Riser

Even at $70 per barrel crude oil is still cheap, that's about 10p per pint, cheaper than milk.

$100 a Barrel Oil a "Conservative" Price

A Goldman Sachs analyst report is indicating the very real possibility of 100 dollar a barrel oil if *anything* happens to current production levels negatively, as in "any time" now. They are saying current production is about "it", maxed out, any remaining good fields are either undeveloped, or in areas that are geopolitically or demographically "unstable". Current demand from the western tech nations now compounded by huge Asian demand which is growing many times faster than even predicted before will mean that something like another big hurricane in the gulf or expanded war in the mideast or south america could trigger tremendous and fast moving price surges............

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  • 301 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
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      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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