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gruffydd

Cathleen Ni Houlihan I Worry For You...

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Saturday 27th May, 2006

Anyone following the general media chatter over the past month wont have failed to notice a growing air of uncertainty about the 'risk profile' for the global economy going forward. Oil prices, a weak dollar, jumpy bond markets, housing bubbles, Iran, the US deficit, the murky derivatives market, possible commodities bubble, see saw gold prices, etc. Its as if there has been a collective stock taking of the debt bubble induced global boom all at once.

I have a feeling in my gut (svelte and highly toned;)) that this trend in volatility will continue, impacting sentiment and causing a credit squeeze over the next twelve months. The question is how long will it take before the average paddy punter gets wind of his/her approaching nemesis?

1. The Irish economy is hideously exposed to the fragile American economy, relying for 50-60% of our exports on a American multinationals.

2.Irish people have a very high exposure in the domestic and international property investment markets. Look at Spain for instance prices down 30% from the peak in the Costa's, and falling. 40% of new builds bought by investors in Ireland, fly to let in Bulgaria, Dubai, Florida (now falling).

3. The construction, financial services and retail industries are highly dependent on the continuation of unsustainable debt accumulation, this is at a time when bond markets are pricing in an acceleration in credit tightening.

4.If a high tech, densely populated nation like Japan can have a crash amounting to 70% from the peak; when interest rates were below current Euro rates for much of that time, then Ireland can quite easily witness a 40-50% drop.

5. Rents continue to fall in real terms as general inflation gathers pace in the economy, this one fact is the killer fact as far as I'm concerned. House prices are rising faster now than they ever have measured in Euro amounts, we have record inward migration; and rents are falling?

What we are witnessing is the final manic stage of an unparalleled speculative bubble. Remember what happended to the other 'tiger' economies of South East Asia, a decade and a half ago.

- A post Taken from the Irish Property News Forum - http://www.irishpropertynews.com/

Edited by gruffydd

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We have some other friends over there...

http://www.irishproperty-sales.com/irish_property_forum/

Correction......There are now 55 properties listed in Saggart/Rathcoole, up 10 in the last 5 days. I think this property ladder is about to fall over.

http://www.searchtheowl.com/forum/index.php/topic,135.0.html

As we all know the Irish housing market is doomed to crash soon is it now time to ask yourself to sell up and rent before the crash hits?

According to newspaper reports rents are going down whereas mortgages are going up.

What use is a mortgage when you cant pay it back?

When the crash hits you will be sorry that you didnt act sooner.

At last someone in Ireland is starting to talk sense...

Edited by BandWagon

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4.If a high tech, densely populated nation like Japan can have a crash amounting to 70% from the peak; when interest rates were below current Euro rates for much of that time, then Ireland can quite easily witness a 40-50% drop.

Japan is the ultimate evidence of the myth of population as the determining factor in the cost of housing. its population is relatively stable and very very dense, but it has still experienced both boom and bust. its so much easier to think that money is real than to realise that the numbers on the bank statement have only relational value to big and uncontrollable machinery like global money supply.

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  • 336 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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