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While it seems almost inevitable that the FED are going to raise US interest rates again next month.

I was wondering what the wise on this site thought about our own interest rate decision would be this June? During the stock market wobble of late some of you were predicting August onwards as the time for rises.

What are the feelings / educated guesses now?

Edited by Jitters

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While it seems almost inevitable that the FED are going to raise US interest rates gain next month.

I was wondering what the wise on this site thought about our own interest rate decision would be this June? During the stock market wobble of late some of you were predicting August onwards as the time for rises.

What are the feelings / educated guesses now?

Gordon will be frozen like a deer in the headlights and do nothing in June. The Japs will force his hand by late summer.

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No change in June,

0.25% rise in August.

Maybe they could just do a meet once a year. "The Annual August MPC Meeting."

Personally I would get Homer Simpson's bobbing bird to control interest rates.

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Maybe they could just do a meet once a year. "The Annual August MPC Meeting."

Personally I would get Homer Simpson's bobbing bird to control interest rates.

Well, to be fair their primary remit is to control CPI around 2%. And they have been very sucessful so far.

Their remit is not to cause a HPC correction!

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A House Price Crash is irrelevant to the Bank Of England's monetary policy, since there are lots of other things that this country could be doing other than buying and selling houses to each other on increasing amounts of borrowed money. I'm pretty sure the Bank Of England know this.

Once property goes fully belly-up there will be no point in even paying it a second glance, and they'll know this. At the moment it's just a case of squeezing the last dregs of juice from this dried up lemon.

A little policy towards PROPER business, like business that generates wealth and income from overseas might be an idea. But I don't want to rock the boat by suggesting that we actually DO something for a change.

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A House Price Crash is irrelevant to the Bank Of England's monetary policy, since there are lots of other things that this country could be doing other than buying and selling houses to each other on increasing amounts of borrowed money. I'm pretty sure the Bank Of England know this.

Once property goes fully belly-up there will be no point in even paying it a second glance, and they'll know this. At the moment it's just a case of squeezing the last dregs of juice from this dried up lemon.

A little policy towards PROPER business, like business that generates wealth and income from overseas might be an idea. But I don't want to rock the boat by suggesting that we actually DO something for a change.

probably the best and most acurate post ive ever read well done.

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Guest Bart of Darkness

No rise in June, probably a rise in July, once the drip, drip of stories preparing the public mindset for such a rise has increased in frequency.

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Well, to be fair their primary remit is to control CPI around 2%. And they have been very sucessful so far.

Yes, the ONS have been very sucessful, we can now control the CPI without having to control interest rates! It's a new paradigm (that is a synonym for 'swindle', right?)

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Guest Bart of Darkness
Well, to be fair their primary remit is to control CPI around 2%. And they have been very sucessful so far.

Yes, I was thinking only the other day how sucessful they'd been after looking at my gas, electric, council tax and TV licence bills.

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Yes, I was thinking only the other day how sucessful they'd been after looking at my gas, electric, council tax and TV licence bills.

Their remit is to control CPI.

You have to look elsewhere if you want to blame someone for the constituents used in the CPI!

And if real inflation is under recorded it will soon be found out, if you think about it, since it would hit the "pound in your pocket", to paraphrase a Prime Minister from the 60's. In other words, if people are getting 2% pay rises (based on CPI) and true inflation is 8%, then this would soon manifest itself in a huge drop in spending power. Some might say it already has!

So you see, the effect of under recording CPI would eventually serve your purpose just as well as higher IRs.

Edited by Casual Observer

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No chance of a rise in June and I doubt we'll see one until Sept/Oct. These muppets will try to hold off as long as they possibly can, making the situation worse.

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We may see Mervyn vote for a 25BP rise in June, which will be followed by a rise in August. We might be surprised and get one in July.

It's decision time. If the MPC don't start talking seriously about rising rates in the next few months, Sterling will be hit, since the market expects a rise before the end of the year. Short and long term rates will converge or Sterling has to move!

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Guest wrongmove

We should run a sweep stake. I reckon they will increase it by 0.25%, maybe even 0.5%.

You should have a punt on Betfair then:

+0.25%, 25/1

+0.50%, 500/1

no change, 1/33

-0.25%, 250/1

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You should have a punt on Betfair then:

+0.25%, 25/1

+0.50%, 500/1

no change, 1/33

-0.25%, 250/1

I'm tempted to lay "any other change" at 999/1. Can anyone think of any circumstances in which the MPC would change rates by anything over +/-0.5%, barring complete economic meltdown?

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You should have a punt on Betfair then:

+0.25%, 25/1

+0.50%, 500/1

no change, 1/33

-0.25%, 250/1

So in theory I could put £50k down on no change and get a dead cert £1500 return? I can't see any bookies taking my money, can you?

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1/33, not 33/1

Yes, that's what I meant. put down £33 and get £1 extra back. Put down £50k and get your £50k plus an extra £1515

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Guest wrongmove

So in theory I could put £50k down on no change and get a dead cert £1500 return? I can't see any bookies taking my money, can you?

Betfair have around £1400 available at 1/33, £4000 at 1/50 and £4600 at 1/100 as I post. This is what you can bet, not what you can win.

(http://www.betfair.com/, click Financial Bets -> Interest Rates -> MPC -> June MPC for odds.)

Edited by wrongmove

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  • 301 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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